Balance of Power
US President Donald Trump travels to the Middle East this week
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Donald Trump is heading to the Gulf chasing business with a coterie of executives while juggling a dizzying number of geopolitical deals.

The US today hailed progress in easing reciprocal trade tariffs with China. That’s after taking credit for a weekend truce between India and Pakistan.

Negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program were meanwhile described as encouraging, and the potential release of the last living American hostage in Gaza presages the restart of negotiations for a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel.

WATCH: Sam Dagher discusses what to expect from Trump’s trip on Bloomberg TV.

Then there’s the prospect that Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy might face each other as the US president pushes both sides to stop fighting.

“MAKE IT HAPPEN NOW,” Trump shouted on Truth Social. And there lies the problem.

Trump wants it done quickly, preferably all at once. But rushed deals may not stick, and there are questions over who benefits. Yet the banging-of-heads approach is yielding something.

It’s a complex picture, with many actors. Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is standing by to host Ukraine-Russia talks this week. The Middle East is in the mix with the likes of Egypt and Qatar playing important supporting roles. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, due to welcome Trump on his first scheduled overseas trip (he attended Pope Francis’ funeral) of his second term tomorrow, is center stage.

Beyond the business deals and opulence – viz the luxury jet that Qatar apparently wants to gift him – Trump longs for that Nobel peace prize.

But there are compelling reasons why these myriad conflicts don’t have easy fixes. Putin has form in playing the long game and isn’t trusted by Kyiv. India’s annoyance at Trump’s ceasefire announcement shows the risks of racing to claim credit too quickly, while Israel’s made clear it’s not committed to any truce with Hamas for the hostage release and in any case has its own ideas on Iran and Gaza.

Impatient for wins, Trump may have to wait a while yet. — Flavia Krause-Jackson

Varda Ben Baruch holds a photo of her grandson, Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander, on April 20. Photographer: Amir Levy/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

The US and China will temporarily lower reciprocal tariffs on products traded between the world’s two largest economies to allow three months of further negotiations, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying today that talks in Geneva had established “neither side wants to decouple.” Markets leapt on signs of de-escalation in the trade war, with combined 145% US levies on most Chinese imports to be reduced to 30%, including the rate tied to fentanyl by Wednesday, while 125% Chinese duties on US goods will drop to 10%.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Scott Bessent, right, in Geneva today. Photographer: Fabrice Coffrini/Getty Images

The immediate task for the de-facto Saudi Arabia leader as he prepares to host Trump this week is how to reconcile the US president’s desire for deals with the potential further deterioration in Riyadh’s budget because of oil prices falling to their lowest in more than four years. The crown prince, known as MBS, wants to make himself the Middle East’s go-to man, while Trump has boasted of inking $1 trillion worth of Saudi investment and trade for US firms.

Trump’s announcement on Truth Social that India and Pakistan had agreed to a “FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE” left many top officials in New Delhi seething as it appeared to undermine their longstanding policy to resolve the Kashmir territorial dispute through bilateral talks and, perhaps worst of all, put the sworn enemies on an equal footing. Stocks in Pakistan and India rallied following Saturday’s truce between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

The PKK Kurdish separatist group agreed to lay down arms to end a 40-year war for autonomy against Turkey, a historic step that could strengthen the NATO member’s push to become a regional powerhouse. Erdoğan has made resolving the Kurdish conflict a central aim as he seeks to reshape the Middle East while strengthening his domestic support.

Protesters carry a banner showing PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan in northeastern Syria in 2021. Photographer: Delil Souleiman/Getty Images

Millions of Philippine voters braved temperatures of up to 44C (111F) to vote in midterm elections that could decide the fate of impeached Vice President Sara Duterte as she feuds with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. There were long queues to cast ballots in over 18,000 positions, with one reported fatality and nationwide heat warnings.

UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy is set to unveil fresh sanctions targeting “actors supporting Russia’s illegal invasion” of Ukraine as Britain hosts a security meeting of European ministers in London today.

Former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam stepped down as head of Ivory Coast’s main opposition party, after his leadership was challenged in court and he was disqualified from running for president.

Albania’s premier, Edi Rama, is on track to win an unprecedented fourth term as he seeks to finally take the Adriatic country into the European Union and cement its status as a tourist destination.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer plans to end the UK’s “experiment in open borders” with tougher rules to curb migration, seeking to head off the growing electoral threat from Nigel Farage’s populist Reform party.

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Chart of the Day

Toyota is the biggest carmaker in the world, and also the auto industry’s biggest loser when it comes to projected losses from the trade war. Duties on imported cars and auto parts forced General Motors to slash its full-year profit guidance by as much as $5 billion, while Ford is bracing for a $1.5 billion annual hit; Tokyo-based Toyota sees a $1.2 billion profit drop in just two months. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Japan won’t accept any initial trade agreement with the US that excludes an accord on autos.

And Finally

The Trump administration is likely to accept a luxury Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet from Qatar’s royal family, in what may be the most valuable gift received from a foreign government to date, ABC News reported. The aircraft is to be used as Air Force One and the gift is expected to be announced this week when Trump visits Qatar as part of his Middle East tour.

A Qatari-owned Boeing 747 at Palm Beach International airport after Trump toured the aircraft on Feb 15. Photographer: Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images

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