Principals

1. Vote-a-rama kicks off
2. Tillis bows out
3. Clean energy cuts
4. Trade crunch time
5. Dem American pride craters
6. SCOTUS ruling impacts
7. Mamdani and the media

PDB: Idaho firefighters killed in ambush 

Trump signs executive orders … Appeals court weighs Alien Enemies Act … WSJ: Trump may cut off hospitals offering youth gender care

Medicaid dominates megabill’s endgame

The Senate kicks off the unlimited vote-a-rama on President Donald Trump’s megabill at 9 am today, a slog which will be dominated by Democratic efforts to derail the bill and force Republicans to vote on health care cuts and tax cuts for high earners. The big amendment vote that could determine GOP support for the bill — led by Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla. — would lower federal payments for Medicaid expansion states, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports.

Now backed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the amendment would reduce the federal match for future beneficiaries in expansion states starting in 2031, according to a copy of the amendment Semafor viewed. It’s a huge potential change that most Republicans think will fail, though it’s also a key priority of four conservative senators whose support is needed to pass the party-line bill.

Why Tillis decided not to run again

Thom Tillis raised alarms over fellow Senate Republicans’ steep Medicaid cuts — and they moved forward anyway. Then he drew Trump’s ire by voting against advancing the president’s megabill. That was just about enough for the two-term North Carolina senator, who won’t run for reelection in 2026 in one of the swingiest states in the country, Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott report. Tillis’ relationships with Trump and some Republicans soured over the weekend, as GOP leaders saw his chances in a primary — and a general contest — decrease amid Trump’s open ruminations about backing a more conservative challenger. Now, Republicans need to regroup and find a candidate who can stave off a potential bid by former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, while Tillis looks “forward to having the pure freedom to call the balls and strikes as I see fit.”

GOP wages war on clean energy

The Senate’s version of the megabill would amp up the GOP’s assault on clean energy, imposing more stringent cuts to Biden-era green energy tax credits while instituting a new tax on wind and solar projects that use materials from China or other foreign entities of concern.

The changes could complicate the bill’s passage in the House, where some Republicans had hoped the Senate would employ a lighter touch. Elon Musk argued the bill would “cause immense strategic harm” to the US. The new tax, which would affect projects that come online after 2027, would be a “kill shot” to the wind and solar energy industries, the leader of one climate policy group told Politico. It would raise costs on solar and wind projects by 10-20%, in addition to cost hikes associated with the gutted credits, per the Rhodium Group.

Clock ticks on Trump trade talks

Trump’s July 9 deadline for higher tariffs is fast approaching, and the administration is sending mixed signals. Days after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the deadline could be relaxed to allow negotiations to stretch until Labor Day, Trump downplayed that possibility. “I don’t think I’ll need to. I could,” he said on Fox News. India’s trade officials decided to stay longer in Washington, but talks with the European Union appeared more fraught, with France stepping up calls for an extension; Trump also briefly halted talks with Canada over a now-scuttled digital tax. The president also said he’d signed a deal with Beijing, though details are sparse, as China pitches itself as an alternative for perturbed US trading partners. The administration says trade deals will be announced after the megabill’s passage — a claim that’ll soon be put to the test.

Dems’ pride plummets under Trump

Just over a third of Democrats say they’re very proud to be American, a sharp fall from the previous year, when Joe Biden was still president. New Gallup data released ahead of the Fourth of July holiday show that just 36% of Democrats report being “very” or “extremely” proud to be an American, down from 62% in 2024. That’s the lowest point Gallup has recorded in the history of asking the question, a likely reflection of the nation’s political divide. Historically, Democrats tend to exhibit weaker national pride than Republicans, 92% of whom said they are very or extremely proud to be an American this year (up from 85% in 2024). The share of Americans who say they’re not at all proud to hail from the US spiked this year to 9% from 5% the year prior.

How Trump benefits from SCOTUS ruling

The Supreme Court strengthened the Trump administration’s hand in legal challenges to its agenda. The conservative majority restricted nationwide injunctions by federal district court judges, without resolving a fight over Trump’s birthright citizenship order. “Federal courts do not exercise general oversight of the executive branch,” read the majority opinion from Justice Amy Coney Barrett, whose stock on the right rose on Friday after her rebuke of Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson’s dissent. Trump cheered the “monumental victory,” but only time will tell its true impact. “If, six months from now, we’re seeing a real reinvigoration of nationwide class actions and the court doesn’t stop it, then this will end up as a pretty modest ruling,” said Georgetown law professor Steve Vladeck, who added: “But the less that’s true, the bigger a win it is for Trump” in a broader sense.

— Morgan Chalfant

Inside Mamdani’s media strategy

Zohran Mamdani swept the Democratic primary for New York City mayor last week thanks to a media strategy geared for 2025: lots of clever, short-form vertical videos, intense message discipline focused on affordability, and an openness to talking to anyone, from niche menswear fashion podcasts to legacy players. That includes the New York Post, the city’s sharp-elbowed conservative tabloid. “We always knew we wanted to engage with even hostile media,” Mamdani’s communications director told Semafor’s Max Tani. “We knew we would be something between a fascination and a menace for the Post.” When the Post ran headlines fearmongering about Mamdani, a Democratic socialist, his campaign reshared them as flattery. Now, with former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s concession in the Democratic primary, the Post may prove to be Mamdani’s most formidable opponent in November’s general election.

Debatable: US intelligence assessments on Iran

Trump’s declaration that US strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities cuts against intelligence assessments from both the US and UN authorities that bombing merely set back Tehran’s nuclear program by months. In fact, it’s too early to draw definitive conclusions in either direction. The US intelligence community’s investigation of the destruction — called a battle damage assessment — is still ongoing and will take more time to complete. But even that could still come with some caveats or doubts, which means the debate over what Trump’s strikes really did may never be fully settled. “When you’re in this business, you’re never going to get 100% on anything,” Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., a former CIA analyst, told Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant. “This isn’t the first time we’ve tried to assess something inside an adversarial nation. So, you do your best assessment.”

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: The decision by Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., not to run for reelection has Republicans looking at several Trump-aligned figures as contenders for the seat. They include Lara Trump, RNC Chairman Michael Whatley, and Reps. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., and Pat Harrigan, R-N.C.

Axios: Lara Trump has the “right of first refusal” on the race, a top Republican said.

Playbook: A few Democratic officials are still in their positions at independent agencies despite President Trump’s push to purge them.

Congress

• The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the Senate’s version of the megabill would add $3.3 trillion to the US deficit over a decade.
• Virginia Democrats picked James Walkinshaw to succeed his former boss, the late Rep. Gerry Connolly, who had endorsed him before dying last month. The Fairfax Democrat won nearly 60% of the vote. He’ll face Republican Stewart Whitson in a September 9 special election, in a district that Kamala Harris carried 2-1 over Donald Trump last year.
• Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon, a Republican thorn in Trump’s side, has said he will not seek reelection.

Campaigns

• Kentucky state Sen. Aaron Reed is visiting the White House ahead of a potential challenge to incumbent GOP Rep. Thomas Massie. — Politico