CMT SmartBrief
Detrick urges caution despite S&P record | Bitcoin DEX traders load up on downside protection | Silver pulls back as ceasefire cools safe-haven demand
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June 30, 2025
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US stock futures rose early Monday as investors looked to close out a strong June, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting fresh records last week. Markets remain buoyed by easing tariff fears and strong corporate guidance, even as uncertainty lingers over President Trump's trade agenda and a major Senate tax bill.
Full Story: CNBC (6/30) 
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The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 6,173 on June 27, capping a 23% rally since President Trump paused major tariffs in April. While tech stocks led the charge, Carson Group founder Ryan Detrick, CMT, warns that future gains may be harder to come by as economic uncertainty and Fed policy still loom.
Full Story: Yahoo (6/28) 
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Technical Outlook
Bitcoin traders on decentralized platform Derive are positioning for near-term price declines, with over 70% of recent options volume favoring puts between $85,000 and $106,000, writes Omkar Godbole, CMT. The bearish sentiment contrasts with centralized platform Deribit, where traders are shifting toward bullish calls following last week's BTC rebound.
Full Story: CoinDesk (UK) (6/30) 
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Silver prices fell 1.8% to $35.99 amid easing geopolitical tensions following Israel-Iran ceasefire progress, reducing safe-haven demand. Rising Treasury yields and a less dovish Fed outlook added pressure, though analysts see the dip as a tactical pullback within a structurally bullish market.
Full Story: FX Empire (Israel) (6/28) 
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The ARK Innovation ETF has surged over 70% since April, but BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, CMT, warns it's time to "fade the breakout" as the fund trades 26% above its 50-day moving average. Past rallies at similar extremes have been followed by double-digit pullbacks, making a correction likely despite strong gains in top holdings like Tesla and Palantir, Krinsky says.
Full Story: Barron's (6/24) 
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Fairlead Strategies Founder Katie Stockton, CMT, highlights a promising chart pattern forming in Estee Lauder shares, suggesting potential upside. The stock is showing signs of a bullish breakout, attracting attention from momentum traders.
Full Story: CNBC (6/23) 
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Industry News
While easing Middle East tensions lifted stocks and cooled oil prices, options markets signal lingering caution, with long-term volatility metrics staying elevated. Traders are hedging against future geopolitical and tariff risks, as equity-oil correlations tighten and energy calendar spreads attract record interest amid uncertainty over global supply and demand.
Full Story: Bloomberg (6/29) 
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The summer stock market rally is expanding beyond technology giants such as Nvidia and Microsoft, with sectors such as financials, industrials and utilities benefiting from the trend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index have reached record highs, driven by improved market breadth as more stocks climb above their 50-day moving averages.
Full Story: The Wall Street Journal (6/28) 
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Coinbase Derivatives will debut its first US "perpetual-style" crypto futures on July 21, offering nano contracts for bitcoin and ether under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight. The 24/7 products aim to mirror global perpetuals while eliminating offshore workarounds, intensifying competition with CME's upcoming spot-quoted futures launch.
Full Story: CoinDesk (UK) (6/27),  Markets Media (6/27) 
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Investor Behavior
The S&P 500 surged 10% in Q2, outpacing Europe's Stoxx 600 and challenging investor bets on a lasting shift toward European equities amid US tariff turbulence. While European stocks still lead for the year, momentum has faded as US tech giants and retail investors drive Wall Street to new highs, reviving doubts about the durability of the so-called "Europe rotation."
Full Story: Bloomberg (6/30),  Financial Times (6/30) 
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