All 22 major US banks passed the Federal Reserve's annual stress test, demonstrating they could endure a severe recession scenario involving over $550 billion in losses. The 2025 test reflected realistic current economic risks and market dynamics, a departure from last year's unusually harsh assumptions. The strong results point to the resilience of the banking system and could allow banks to return more capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

US bond traders are riding a three-week winning streak and expect more gains as rate-cut positions grow ahead of Thursday's jobs report. With Treasury yields near two-month lows and signs of a slowing economy, markets are pricing in up to two Fed cuts this year, despite internal divisions among policymakers.

Global M&A hit $2.14 trillion in the first half of 2025, driven by a surge in $10 billion-plus deals and record activity in Asia, despite headwinds from tariffs and high rates. Bankers see renewed optimism for H2 as volatility eases and US policy shifts open the door to larger transactions. "Deals beget deals," said Michael Kollender, co-head of investment banking at Stifel. "As soon as we start to see more momentum, others will jump on the wagon."

With the end of a 90-day pause on President Donald Trump's tariffs approaching, major bank CEOs are signaling calm, downplaying the risk of a renewed summer trade clash. Despite market jitters over a potential return to "Liberation Day"-style disruptions, financial leaders suggest economic fundamentals remain intact.

The Senate advanced the tax and spending package in a 51-49 procedural vote over the weekend, clearing the way for a "vote-a-rama" on amendments beginning Monday morning. Meanwhile, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) notified members that House votes are expected as early as 9:00 a.m. on Wednesday, July 2. President Donald Trump has signaled that he wants the bill on his desk by July 4.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Senate version of President Trump's tax and spending bill would increase US deficits by nearly $3.3 trillion over a decade under current law. The bill includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and uses a nontraditional scoring method that assumes current policies remain, drawing criticism from Democrats and some economists.

The US economy continues to show resilience despite renewed tariff threats and global trade uncertainty. Consumers remain confident, markets are stable, and while growth has slowed from 2024 levels, it remains steady, underscoring investor optimism and a broader sense that the worst of the trade disruption may be behind us.