The Senate tax and spending bill passed a procedural hurdle in a 51-49 voter over the weekend, and the chamber could start a "vote-a-rama" on amendments to the package Monday morning. President Donald Trump has indicated that he wants the bill on his desk by July 4.

The S&P 500 surged 10% in Q2, outpacing Europe's Stoxx 600 and challenging investor bets on a lasting shift toward European equities amid US tariff turbulence. While European stocks still lead for the year, momentum has faded as US tech giants and retail investors drive Wall Street to new highs, reviving doubts about the durability of the so-called "Europe rotation."

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Senate version of President Trump's tax and spending bill would increase US deficits by nearly $3.3 trillion over a decade under current law. The bill includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and uses a nontraditional scoring method that assumes current policies remain, drawing criticism from Democrats and some economists.

Global M&A hit $2.14 trillion in the first half of 2025, driven by a surge in $10 billion-plus deals and record activity in Asia, despite headwinds from tariffs and high rates. Bankers see renewed optimism for H2 as volatility eases and US policy shifts open the door to larger transactions.

MMSB Murmurs Megadeals are back on the menu.

Despite tariff turbulence and high-rate headwinds, bankers are brushing off a slow start and betting big on a second-half M&A surge, especially as Trump’s antitrust stance clears the runway for potential blockbusters. -- Matt

US bond traders are riding a three-week winning streak and expect more gains as rate-cut positions grow ahead of Thursday's jobs report. With Treasury yields near two-month lows and signs of a slowing economy, markets are pricing in up to two Fed cuts this year, despite internal divisions among policymakers.

Canada has withdrawn its digital services tax on firms like Meta and Alphabet to restart stalled trade negotiations with the US, following threats of new tariffs from President Trump. The two countries now aim to reach a deal by July 21, with Canada pledging to repeal the tax entirely.

Despite fears of a downturn from tariffs and policy volatility, the US economy has remained resilient, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high and inflation staying milder than expected. Business investment and hiring have continued, though consumer spending and GDP growth have shown signs of softening.