Good morning, it's Carmeli in Sydney here with all the news you need to start your week.

Today’s must-reads:
• RBA set for July cut
• Tariff deadline at August 1
• Butter prices near record highs

What's happening now

The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to deliver its first back-to-back interest-rates cuts in six years, stepping up its easing cycle as inflation pressures cool and US trade policies threaten a fragile global outlook. Most economists polled by Bloomberg as well as financial traders expect the Reserve Bank will lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% on Tuesday.

Michele Bullock, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), speaks during a news conference at the bank’s head office in Sydney, Australia, on Tuesday, April 1, 2025.  Photographer: Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg

US President Donald Trump’s country-by-country tariffs will take effect Aug. 1, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said, signaling some breathing room for US trading partners ahead of a July 9 deadline previously set by the president.

Butter prices in most of the world are lingering near record highs, with little end in sight to the surge. It’s the result of a complex interplay of factors, with the end result being more cost pressure on consumers’ favorite foods.

What happened overnight

Here’s what my colleague, market strategist Mike “Willo” Wilson says happened while we were sleeping…

With US stocks closed, losses from European indexes are the only cues to draw from. Sentiment was further dampened by aggressive posturing from President Trump who sent out tariff letters to some nations before the pause is due to end on July 9. There’s not much inspiration to be gleaned from ASX futures which are flat. Locally the week has interest rate decisions from the RBA and RBNZ where a cut from the former and hold from the latter is almost fully priced. Aussie and kiwi dollars finished higher for a second week but the accompanying statements from both central banks may challenge those gains.

Trump signed his $3.4 trillion budget bill into law Friday, enshrining an extension of tax cuts, temporary new breaks for tipped workers and funding to crack down on illegal immigration. 

US President Donald Trump displays the signed bill during a ceremony for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, July 4, 2025. Photographer: Bonnie Cash/UPI

Major US trading partners hurried over the weekend to secure trade deals or lobby for extra time, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that some countries lacking an agreement by the deadline Wednesday will have the option of a three-week extension to negotiate.

China will impose some reciprocal curbs on medical-device procurement for companies based in the European Union, adding tensions between the two major trading partners just as Beijing seeks to shore up ties while it fights a trade war with the US.

What to watch

• Nothing major scheduled

One more thing...

Singapore will gradually integrate more traditional Chinese medicine treatments into its public healthcare system during a testing initiative that will explore how such therapies will complement Western ones. The health ministry has received 18 proposals on treatments that can be adopted and a committee will evaluate the scientific robustness of each of them, Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said Sunday.

Herbs used in traditional Chinese medicine. Photographer: I-Hwa Cheng/Bloomberg