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Morning Bell
The Senate has confirmed Stephen Miran, a top economic adviser to President Donald Trump, to the Federal Reserve's board in a 48-47 vote along party lines. Miran has said he will keep his role as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers while serving on the Fed, raising concerns about the central bank's independence.
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Industry News
US Treasurys have outperformed other major sovereign bond markets this year, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Treasurys have returned 5.8% in 2025, the highest among the 15 largest debt markets, as the yield advantage over global peers fell to a three-year low.
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Goldman Sachs strategists George Cole and William Marshall warn that the five-year part of the bond curve may face turmoil, particularly in Japan and Germany. Five-year notes have been favored for their resilience to monetary policy and inflation risks, but a shift toward tighter monetary policy in Japan and the eurozone may make them vulnerable, they said.
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US stocks climbed again Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting fresh highs on optimism around US-China trade talks and a surge in AI-linked shares. Alphabet rose 4.5%, topping a $3 trillion valuation, while Tesla jumped 3.6% after Elon Musk's $1 billion stock purchase. Seagate led the S&P with a 7.7% gain, fueled by expectations for data center expansion. Japan's Nikkei 225 index also reached a new record on the back of the gains.
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Policy Roundup
President Donald Trump has suggested that US public companies switch from quarterly to semiannual earnings reporting, a system in place since 1970. The change, which would require Securities and Exchange Commission approval, is aimed at reducing costs and easing short-term pressures. Supporters say it could encourage longer-term planning, while critics warn it would reduce transparency and limit timely information for investors.
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The Federal Reserve is widely expected to trim interest rates by a quarter point this week as slowing job growth cements the case for easing. Policymakers remain divided on whether to stop at one or two tactical cuts or pursue a longer cycle of stimulus, with potential dissents likely. New projections and Chair Jerome Powell's tone will be closely watched for clues on the Fed's path beyond this initial move.
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A federal appeals court has ruled that President Donald Trump cannot dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, allowing her to participate in the two-day event. Trump attempted to fire Cook over alleged mortgage fraud, which she denies, but the court upheld a lower ruling preventing her removal while her lawsuit against Trump proceeds.
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