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Government Shutdown Drags on With No Sign of It Ending Anytime Soon
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This is Washington Edition, the newsletter about money, power and politics in the nation’s capital. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Nathan Dean gives his insights into what’s been happening and what’s coming up in the nooks and crannies of government and markets. Sign up here. Email our editors here.

Pressure Points

A client pinged me this morning with the question of the hour: “When is the government shutdown going to end?” The predictions market at Polymarket has shifted, and 71% now think it’ll last 30 or more days. And I don’t see any reason why it would end anytime soon. I think the federal employee layoffs announced by the Office of Management and Budget last week only harden Democrats’ resolve, and with President Donald Trump vowing to pay the military on Oct. 15, there isn’t a pressure point yet that will prod Congress toward a resolution.

But there are some coming. Soon there will be more missed paychecks for government workers, notices of higher premiums for Affordable Care Act policies and a potential shortfall of money to pay for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (food stamp) benefits in November for around 42 million Americans who rely on them.

And as the shutdown enters day 13, we are beginning to see more random consequences. For example, here’s Bailey Lipschultz with “Most US IPOs Remain Stuck In Limbo Despite SEC’s Shutdown Fix.”

I’ll be honest. Most of the people I talk to in the investment community don’t really care. We aren’t seeing any real concerns in the markets. So maybe Bloomberg Opinion’s Abby McCloskey is on to something when she writes “America Is Getting Used to Broken Government.”

A quick note on President Trump’s threat to place 100% tariffs on Chinese goods beginning Nov. 1. At this point, I think we can all agree that a lot of negotiations can (and will likely) take place before we get there. So, here’s what I’m reading as we prepare for the next headline:

Tidbits

Don’t Miss

Trump pressed world leaders gathered at a summit on Gaza’s future to ensure the US-led truce between Israel and Hamas turns into a lasting peace, hailing the agreement as a “new beginning” for the war-torn region.

The US president lobbied for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to receive a pardon that would offer a reprieve from his ongoing corruption trial during a speech at the Knesset.

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Knesset in Jerusalem on Oct. 13. Photographer: Chip Somodevilla/AFP/Getty Images
Trump and Netanyahu at the Knesset.
Photographer: Chip Somodevilla/AFP/Getty Images

The latest tit-for-tat showdown between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has both countries claiming the ball is now in the other’s court, with the clock ticking toward another escalation in import tariffs.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated his department is shuffling the flow of money through its system to allow for the military to get paid — a maneuver that his predecessor had suggested might not be possible.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy plans to meet with Trump in Washington this week to discuss air defense, long-range weaponry and energy as Russia intensifies strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

Retired Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy said the high court is harmed by “too much partisanship,” a problem he blames on presidents and a confirmation process that increasingly focuses on politics over temperament.

Watch & Listen

Today on Bloomberg Television’s Balance of Power early edition at 1 p.m., host Joe Mathieu interviewed Hagar Chemali, former director for Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council, about the Trump-brokered deal that brought about the ceasefire in Gaza.

On the program at 5 p.m., Joe and Julie Fine talk with former Pentagon official Evelyn Farkas, who is now executive director of the McCain Institute, about what comes next in the Middle East.

On the Odd Lots podcast, Bloomberg’s Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal speak with Andrew Ross Sorkin, the editor of Dealbook, the co-host of CNBC’s Squawk Box, and the author of the new book 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History—and How It Shattered a Nation. Listen on iHeartApple Podcasts and Spotify.

Map of the Day

Wednesday is payday for more than 2.6 million uniformed troops and civilian Defense Department employees, as the Trump administration rushes to find money to cover the $8 billion semimonthly payroll during the government shutdown. One possible source is research and development accounts used to fund weapons systems — a move that could ripple through the defense industry if contractors go unpaid. But troop paychecks are far more politically sensitive, and a lapse could jolt local economies built around major military bases. Hawaii, Alaska, Virginia, North Dakota and Maryland are the most defense-dependent states, with more than 2.5% of working-age residents directly employed by the Pentagon. — Gregory Korte

What’s Next

The IMF and World Bank annual meetings continue through Friday in Washington.

The NFIB’s small-business optimism index for September will be released tomorrow.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers keynote address tomorrow at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics.

The Fed’s Beige Book survey of regional businesses will be released Wednesday.

The National Association of Home Builders housing market index will be published Thursday.

The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee meets Oct. 28-29.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders summit opens Oct. 31.

Seen Elsewhere

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