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|  |  | Tuesday, October 14, 2025 | |  | | Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images | Good morning, Quartz readers! It’s Shannon Carroll with the Daily Brief. Today, credibility is the only asset still appreciating this earnings season, bank chiefs are about to narrate the U.S. economy from Midtown, China’s export surge is rewriting the trade-war
scoreboard, and Cybertruck sales just took a joyride off a cliff. | | HERE'S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW | Is China winning the trade war? Beijing’s September export surge — up 8.3% even as U.S. sales sank — shows it’s quietly rebuilding global trade lines that make Washington’s leverage weaker. | Markets are learning to read Trump’s moods. Futures rebounded after his “all will be fine" with China post, with traders once again betting that the president’s tariffs are more bluff than business plan. | The trade war has found its taxpayer. Goldman’s economists say U.S. consumers are paying the majority of Trump’s tariff costs, proving the bill for economic patriotism is increasingly finding its way home. | Finance just joined the front lines. JPMorgan’s $1.5 trillion plan enlists private capital for defense, AI, and critical manufacturing, extending Wall Street’s reach into the machinery of U.S. industrial power. | | | Sponsored |  | Lowest Price Vanishes. Do Not Miss. | Audiophiles and
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| | MARGINALLY BELIEVABLE | Wall Street’s expectations have gone on a diet — and somehow still feel bloated. With the bar for earnings season practically at ankle height, S&P 500 profit growth is expected to slow to about 8.8%
year-over-year — half the spring surge, but still technically “growth.” The magic of margin management has given way to simple cost math, and the story now isn’t who’s soaring — it’s who can stumble gracefully while pretending that, yes, they meant to.
Tech is doing most of the heavy lifting (again), while energy and staples wheeze under the weight of cooling demand and commodity whiplash, discovering that “resilient consumer demand” is just investor code for “Please keep buying
things.” Inflation is holding near 3%, the 10-year Treasury refuses to calm down, and the Fed’s GDPNow still sees decent growth — but just barely. The vibe is less recession watch and more performance review: Everyone is technically fine, but no one is getting promoted.
This quarter’s real tell will be in the narrative, not in the numbers. Earnings calls have become corporate confessionals — equal parts optimism, improv, and investor therapy. The companies that come out ahead won’t
necessarily post the biggest beats; they’ll deliver the most convincing monologues. Because when the market already believes everything’s priced in, credibility is the only thing left trading at a premium. Quartz’s Shannon Carroll has more on why everyone is
grading themselves on a curve. | | TRADING PLACES | Wall Street’s earnings calls are starting to sound like State of the Union addresses — just with more acronyms and better lighting. The third-quarter banking bonanza kicks off this week, with the big five — JPMorgan,
Goldman Sachs, Citi, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock — taking turns narrating the economy like a shared custody arrangement. As Washington remains half-shuttered, the market’s most powerful CEOs could do what Congress won’t: pretend someone’s steering the ship. Investors aren’t expecting fireworks so much as stability: strong trading desks, steady deal fees, and just enough cheer from CEOs to keep the macro gloom at bay.
What used to be a quarterly
balance-sheet check has morphed into policy theater. Jamie Dimon warns, Larry Fink soothes, David Solomon jazz-hands his way through risk sentiment, and Jane Fraser delivers a macro sermon in measured tones. Between the lines, they’re singing a codependent duet between Wall Street and Washington — banks signaling what they’ll tolerate, politicians listening for what they can get away with. With markets addicted to mixed signals and volatility, the feedback loop is less symbiotic than cinematic.
And the show pays well. Bank profits are still cruising on volatility — trading desks are feasting on tariff tremors and Federal Reserve whiplash — while JPMorgan’s new $10 billion “Security and Resiliency Initiative” folds finance directly into the national project. When the money people start talking about defense, AI, and manufacturing as “strategic imperatives,” it’s less flag-waving than forward guidance. The market’s message this week is simple: performance matters, but positioning talks louder. Quartz’s Catherine Baab has more on how Washington and Wall Street became each other’s echo chambers. | | | Sponsored | | Lowest Price Vanishes. Do Not Miss. | Audiophiles and remote professionals are rushing to grab this deal. For a limited time, the new Sonos Ace headphones are 25% off their original price. Don't be the only one to miss out on the audio revolution. These headphones deliver superior
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