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 Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here. Yesterday’s announcement of a ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan brings at least a temporary halt to deadly clashes in a region that’s increasingly looking like South Asia’s powder keg. The mountainous border area shared by the two nations has long been a chaotic hotbed — home to a fragmented tribal territory that’s notoriously difficult to govern. For decades, it’s been fertile ground for militant groups with all manner of agendas. That made it a draw for spies and great-power intrigue. After the Soviet Union’s 1979 invasion of Afghanistan, it emerged as a front line for the US-backed insurgency against Moscow. Following the Sept. 11 terror attacks, it became a base for the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda. More recently, the remnants of Islamic State and al-Qaeda have sought to regroup there.  Taliban security officers near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border on Sunday. Photographer: Sanaullah Seiam/AFP/Getty Images The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan has added a new layer of complexity. Pakistan says Kabul is harboring the so-called Pakistani Taliban, a charge that Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers deny. Pakistan’s brief war with India this year brings yet another dimension. Islamabad has long accused India of sponsoring the Pakistani Taliban, too, along with other border-zone militants, and those allegations have grown more vocal since their May clash. In June, it blamed India for a deadly bombing in Waziristan. This week, Pakistan said New Delhi was using Afghanistan as a base to sponsor terrorism against it. India rejected both allegations. US President Donald Trump has weighed in, too, musing about the possibility of playing peacemaker between Pakistan and Afghanistan.  A poster featuring Pakistani Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir in Muzaffarabad, Kashmir, on May 14. Photographer: Sajjad Qayyum/AFP/Getty Images But Washington is no neutral third party, given its long history in Afghanistan and its more recent desire to retake Bagram air base outside Kabul. China, which borders both belligerents, has also sought to mediate. For now, the border ceasefire appears to be holding. But with so many colliding interests, the prospect of a wider clash is far from remote. — Dan Strumpf Global Must ReadsTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent dangled the possibility of extending a pause of US import duties on Chinese goods for longer than three months if Beijing halts its plan for strict new export controls on rare-earth elements. He also lashed out at a top Chinese trade official, saying Li Chenggang behaved in an “unhinged” fashion typical of Beijing’s so-called wolf-warrior diplomats. While Trump’s tariff war gave China an opportunity to woo the world, Beijing’s hardball tactics are sparking a global pushback.  WATCH: Bessent comments on trade tensions with China. French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu survived the first of two no-confidence motions today after agreeing to suspend a contentious pension law in order to win enough support in the fractured National Assembly. A second motion, tabled by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, is also likely to fail later today, bringing some respite in a political crisis that came close to triggering snap elections. Israel threatened to resume attacks on Gaza if Hamas doesn’t comply with all the steps outlined in Trump’s peace plan. Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the military to prepare for the “complete defeat of Hamas in Gaza” if the militant group doesn’t disarm and return all the bodies of deceased hostages in its possession, in remarks Trump later echoed to reporters in Washington.  Palestinians receive food from a charity kitchen in Nuseirat refugee camp, Gaza, yesterday. Photographer: Eyad Baba/AFP/Getty Images Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to halt purchases of Russian oil, signaling a possible resolution to an issue at the center of the diplomatic and trade rift between Washington and New Delhi. Moscow’s crude exports to India could drop as refiners wait for official state guidance, with six executives from state-owned Indian firms saying they were caught off guard by the US leader’s comments yesterday. Thousands of Peruvians took to the streets to protest the brand-new administration of President José Jerí yesterday, with police firing tear gas in Lima as they attempted to disperse the largest anti-government demonstrations in several months. Many could be heard chanting for the ouster of Jerí, a conservative who took the top job last week after his predecessor was removed in a unanimous congressional vote.  Jerí swears in Wilder Sifuentes as Peru’s new housing minister in Lima on Tuesday. Photographer: Fabiola Granda/Bloomberg Sanae Takaichi’s chances of becoming Japanese prime minister now hang on policy talks with the Japan Innovation Party, with tomorrow a key date in providing clarity for who will form the new government. The father of Altantuya Shaariibuu, a Mongolian woman gruesomely murdered in Malaysia in 2006 by two bodyguards assigned to protect officials including former premier Najib Razak, has been granted leave to petition for a new probe into a death that shocked the Southeast Asian nation. Indonesia is nearing a deal to buy China-made J-10 fighter jets, months after officials said they were considering a first purchase of the battle-tested aircraft in efforts to modernize the military. A potentially “catastrophic” breach of a major US-based cybersecurity provider has been blamed on state-backed hackers from China, sources say. Also, Chinese hackers accessed classified UK computer systems for more than a decade.  This week on Trumponomics, we explore the global surge in government debt and why investors still seem unfazed, especially when it comes to the US. Joining the conversation are Jason Furman, former chair of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors, and Rupert Harrison, the ex-adviser to UK Chancellor George Osborne. You can also listen on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day New scientific research has underlined the importance of the Paris climate accord in curbing extreme heat, just as fears grow that the goals of the landmark agreement will be missed. The emissions cuts pledged in 2015 moderated the planet’s warming trajectory to 2.6C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, from previous forecasts of as much as 4C. That translates, scientists found, into half the number of days of most extreme heat — one of the deadliest of weather hazards. And FinallyA commodities giant, Brazil supplies beef, soybeans, sugar and coffee to markets from China to Europe, with the agriculture supply chain accounting for about a quarter of GDP. That economic heft translates into political clout — 60% of Brazil’s lawmakers are members of the congressional agriculture caucus. It helps to explain why the highest-emitting sector of the economy, not to say the main driver of deforestation, is honing a surprising green message for next month’s COP30 summit in the Amazonian city of Belém that Brazil is a leader in innovative, sustainable agriculture.  A protest on Tuesday at the preparatory ministerial meeting ahead of COP30 in Brasilia. Photographer: Ton Molina/Bloomberg More from Bloomberg
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