Despite the investments, there are many internal factors holding companies back in their AI journeys. 

Nine out of 10 organizations believe they have the tools and processes to scale innovation, but more than half say an outdated tech stack—with automation challenges and cybersecurity risks—is preventing them from the growth they seek. More than half of organizations—54%—reported positive ROI on AI investments, but 62% still have AI projects in the pilot stage, and 57% said their innovation efforts often stall after the proof-of-concept phase. Nearly three-quarters of CEOs said the pressure to demonstrate short-term ROI undermines their longer-term innovation goals, and 65% of CEOs said they aren’t aligned with the CFO on long-term values of tech investments. 

A total of 87% believe that AI will completely reshape jobs in the next year, but only 29% feel their workforce is actually ready to leverage AI successfully. On average, respondents said that 61% of technical employees are using AI weekly, as well as 43% of non-technical employees.

I had an exclusive interview with Kyndryl CEO Martin Schroeter about the survey, which included 3,700 business leaders across 21 countries. Schroeter said that one could say the data looks contradictory, but this survey indicates more positive performance from AI than some other recent studies. It also shows that companies are working to make AI fit their operations better through several steps, like modernizing outdated tech stacks and looking at reskilling employees.

“While the data looks low—ours is low—it will catch up over time,” Schroeter told me. “What is going to drive that is the company’s ability to change their culture, a company’s ability to get their workforce using it more regularly, and a company’s ability to really make the case for change—so that their infrastructure is ready, their people are ready, and they’re going to get the kinds of returns from AI at a scale that is going to change nearly 90% of how they get their work done.”

There’s more from my conversation with Schroeter later in this newsletter.

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But even if politicians in Washington don’t feel any urgency to end the government shutdown, small businesses that have even tangential dealings with the federal government are feeling it deeply, writes Forbes senior contributor Rohit Arora. The small businesses with federal government contracts, Arora writes, are expected to continue work even though they are not getting paid. Businesses that rely on federal grants, or are located near shut federal sites, are not getting what they expected. And companies in need of capital from the Small Business Administration aren’t able to get it because the SBA loan program is halted. Even if the government gets back in business this week, the impact will be felt for quarters to come. Analysts estimate the last government shutdown at the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019 reduced economic output for the next two quarters by $11 billion.

The government shutdown is also halting regular government-produced reports on jobs, hiring, prices and spending. Forbes’ Brandon Kochkodin runs down some of the indicators people tend to use during government shutdowns. Some of them seem fairly fact-based, like payroll processor ADP’s monthly report on private sector job growth and the Conference Board’s Help Wanted OnLine Index. But some—including the hemline index (shorter skirts mean a better economy) and the men’s underwear index (since it can’t be seen, men won’t buy new underwear when the economy is bad)—seem to work, but be more based on coincidence. 

Another useful indicator is the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
, which measures confidence in current and expected home sales conditions. Kochkodin writes the indicator showed an upwards jump in October—37, on a scale from 1 to 100—likely coordinated with the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower baseline interest rates last month. However, 37 is not a great score; anything above 50 means that more homebuilders say conditions are good than poor.

However, things look different on the ground, especially when companies are facing difficult numbers and need to make cuts to maintain profit levels. In last week’s Forbes Careers newsletter, Forbes’ Maria Gracia Santillana Linares writes that outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracked 7,000 jobs cut because of AI in September—not including 20,000 roles eliminated because of technological advancements, which may include AI.

This isn’t necessarily a one-to-one replacement, with an actual job being cut and its functions going to an algorithm. Challenger, Gray & Christmas Senior Vice President and labor expert Andy Challenger said in a report that AI is changing the nature of work, which means more companies want their employees to be trained on how to use it. 

Forbes senior contributor John Koetsier writes that while this move could dramatically change e-commerce as an industry, it seems to be taking direct aim at Amazon. In 2023, the original massive online retailer controlled 37.6% of the e-commerce market, while Walmart had just 6.4%, according to Statista.

The partnership also surfaces new questions about shopping and curation, writes Forbes contributor Jason Snyder. There’s no guarantee that asking a chatbot with a retailer affiliate for product recommendations will actually provide the best options. Snyder points out that about a third of Walmart’s profits come from selling ads through its retail media network, and its purchase last year of smart TV maker Vizio already gives the retailer unprecedented control over what people see on their screens. Governance for this kind of partnership is key, and it’s unclear whether that will come before the “Buy Now” button on ChatGPT goes live.