Good Monday afternoon. Today's newsletter, edited by Sam Baker, is 452 words, a 1.5-min. read. Thanks to Sheryl Miller for copy editing.

Despite all of the activity of the second Trump administration, betting that President Trump will follow through on the things he says he'll do is still a losing proposition.

• That's the conclusion from a Bloomberg analysis of activity on Polymarket, the site that lets users gamble on politics and other real-world events. (Polymarket was banned for a while in the U.S., but it's set to begin operations soon.)
• Those bets are usually up-or-down propositions — will an event happen, or will it not happen?