| | The Lead Brief | On the shutdown, the topline dispute remains: Democrats are demanding that Congress pair the reopening of the government with an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies that expire at the end of the year. Republicans, meanwhile, are steadfast that the government must reopen before they have discussions about the policy. But it’s a stance that could ultimately cost Republicans the House, according to a newly released survey by McLaughlin & Associates, a conservative polling firm that has worked for President Donald Trump. → The poll focuses on voters in all eight GOP-held battleground districts, which have races that are rated as a “toss up” by the Cook Political Report. More than half (53 percent) of the respondents said they want Democrats to reopen the government and then get to work on the tax credits. But attn: House Republicans: Most voters (51 percent) also noted they’re more likely to vote for “a Democratic candidate who fought to preserve and protect the Enhanced Premium Healthcare Tax Credits for working Americans,” over a Republican candidate “who refused to protect the Enhanced Premium Healthcare Tax Credits and wanted them to expire.” This view is held by 53 percent of Independent voters and 66 percent of Independent women voters, according to the poll. “This poll makes it clear: preserving the enhanced premium tax credits isn’t just good policy, it’s smart politics for Republicans looking to defend their majority in the 2026 midterms,” said Dee Stewart, the president of conservative group Americans for a Balanced Budget, which commissioned the survey. It’s also a line lobbyists and lawmakers supporting an extension of the tax credits will almost certainly be bringing to the White House in an effort to get Trump involved. He’s thus far has echoed GOP leadership’s refrain of opening the government before talks over the tax credits can begin. → The Post’s Alyssa Fowers wrote last week about who is poised to get hurt the most if the subsidies expire: About 80 percent of people that receive the tax credits live in states that Trump won in the 2024 presidential election. I’ve been talking with roughly a half-dozen people who are working on the issue, and it’s something that many of them — including those representing insurers and providers — have been already making to lawmakers. “This is all about reinforcing the consequences for constituents, which are real and significant, and stressing the political reality of all this,” said one person working in support of extending the tax credits given anonymity to talk about lobbying strategy. “Ultimately this is a political calculation as much as anything else.” “What can’t go on forever, won’t,” the person continued, “and so then, putting that aside, when given an obviously advantageous political option, I tend to assume Congress will take it.” While there have been some talks between rank-and-file members in both parties about a compromise on the extension, the lawmakers involved are focused on how to proceed on the policy after the shutdown ends, indicating there is still no apparent off-ramp. |