Washington, DC

1. Thune’s gentle Trump break
2. Trump pressures Russia
3. New China curbs?
4. US-South Africa tensions
5. Redistricting heats up
6. Granite State matchup

PDB: US widens military campaign against suspected drug boats

US reports existing home sales … WSJ: Trump admin eyes stakes in quantum-computing firms … Oil prices ⬆️ 5%

Thune breaks with Trump on beef

Senate Majority Leader John Thune and President Donald Trump have been in lockstep during the government shutdown. Well, except for Trump’s plans to import Argentine beef and drive down prices of the meat. That could hurt South Dakota’s ranchers, who are making themselves heard. “This isn’t the way to do it,” Thune told Semafor’s Burgess Everett. “I’m hoping that the White House has gotten the message.” Thune might see more movement on the cattle front than on reopening the government: He said the Nov. 1 Obamacare open enrollment date could move Democrats but didn’t rule out the shutdown lasting until around Thanksgiving. He said Democrats have sought a vote on extending health care subsidies at a 50-vote threshold — something Republicans won’t accept — and said if the appropriations process continues floundering, Republicans will consider a stopgap bill lasting until next fall, or even through the midterms.

Trump turns Russia pressure back on

Trump is turning the screws on Russia, having abruptly called off his plans for another meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Global oil prices soared by more than 5% after the Treasury Department imposed sanctions on major Russian oil companies, followed by a sweeping EU sanctions package approved Thursday. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration also lifted a restriction on Ukraine’s use of Western long-range missiles — though Trump dismissed the report as “fake news.” The administration’s latest shift came as Trump met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who told reporters on Capitol Hill that Trump is the “only one” who can end the Ukraine war. Still, Trump is discovering there are limits to his diplomatic efforts. Russia launched fresh strikes on Ukraine in the hours after Trump called off the Budapest meeting, hitting a kindergarten and killing children.

US teases more China curbs

The Trump administration is dangling new potential penalties on China ahead of an expected meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping during his upcoming trip to Asia. The administration is considering restricting software exports to China, Reuters reported. It’s all part of the administration’s strategy to retaliate against China’s rare earth curbs, which Trump and his advisers are trying to get reversed. “Everything is on the table,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters, even as Trump predicted later that China “will make a deal.” In the meantime, the US is also trying to lean on allies to put pressure on Beijing; the administration is asking Argentina to scale back its business and trade relationship with China in favor of a closer one with the US, The Wall Street Journal reported. Trump’s pact with Australia on rare earths is also meant to help counter China’s dominance.

US-South Africa talks hit ‘sticking points’

Trade talks between South Africa and the US are running into “sticking points” over “domestic issues,” Pretoria’s international relations minister, Ronald Lamola, said. Washington — South Africa’s second-biggest trading partner — has put pressure on Pretoria to end Black Economic Empowerment laws aimed at redressing wealth imbalances caused by apartheid. In August, the US slapped a 30% tariff on imports from Africa’s biggest economy after saying the laws unjustly discriminate against white South Africans. Lamola said BEE, land redistribution laws, and the “false narrative” of a genocide had been raised in the latest trade talks. “We’ve insisted that this should be separated from the trade engagements,” he said this week at the FT Africa Summit in London. His comments come against a backdrop of a broader Trump administration push to overhaul the US refugee program to favor white South Africans.

— Alexis Akwagyiram

Redistricting heats up across US

The redistricting wars are coming to a head. North Carolina lawmakers approved a new map that gives Republicans an edge, which the state’s Democratic governor doesn’t have the power to veto. Indiana Republicans, meanwhile, seem to be resisting White House pressure for a new map, with a spokesperson for the state Senate president telling Politico they don’t have the votes. Democrats have momentum in California, where more than six in 10 voters plan to vote for the state’s redistricting plan drafted in response to GOP redistricting in other states, according to a CBS News poll. Facing primary challengers, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., plans to punt an announcement about her future until after the state’s redistricting vote next month. In Illinois, the state’s Black Caucus warned Democrats against any new map that dilutes the Black vote in historically Black districts, Punchbowl News reports.

— Eleanor Mueller

The weird NH Republican primary

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott is “all-in” for former Sen. John E. Sununu in New Hampshire. But it’s a tough spot for some Republicans who served with his rival, former Sen. Scott Brown. It’s pretty rare to have two former senators running against each other in an open primary, and it’s a little awkward. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Semafor he’s talked to both Brown and Scott and he’s assessing “who’s in the best position to win” — and though “they’re both very talented guys,” he hinted it’s Sununu. “The Sununu name in New Hampshire is something that’s, through the years, seen a lot of electoral success. So having him in the race is great,” Scott said. But, he added: “The next few days and next couple of weeks will be clarifying.”

— Burgess Everett

Trump’s first term saw a flowering of left-wing and liberal protest, culminating in 2020, after George Floyd’s killing, in what is often described as a “racial reckoning,” Semafor’s David Weigel writes. Democrats embraced it. They remembered how the Tea Party movement — a marriage of well-funded libertarian groups and grassroots conservatism — reinvigorated the GOP during the Obama years. Hillary Clinton had struggled to fill the sort of venues that, two months after her loss, hosted a massive Women’s March. Saturday’s patriotism-splashed No Kings protests, however, told a new story: one in which the founders tried to create a “more perfect union,” and liberals are honoring them by working on the “more” part.

Regulation is evolving faster than ever, redefining how companies innovate and how consumers engage. From pharmaceuticals to food and beyond, shifting policies are reshaping markets, competition, and access to essential products and care. For patients and consumers alike, these changes determine everything from treatment availability to everyday safety.

Together with Brian Crawford, President & CEO, The Beer Institute; Ricky Silver, CEO, Daily Harvest; Raqiyyah Pippins, Partner & Co-Chair of Consumer Products Group, Arnold & Porter; and Jake Bullock, Co-founder & CEO, Cann, Semafor will explore how businesses can stay resilient amid regulatory flux, what policy approaches best encourage responsible innovation, and how industry and government can work together to ensure accountability while unlocking progress.

Oct. 28 | Washington, DC | RSVP

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Democrats remain convinced that resolving the shutdown stalemate requires the president to step in. “Trump is the off-ramp,” Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., said. “If he says to his Republican leaders in Congress, ‘Fix this,’ it’ll happen.”

Playbook: Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, launched a digital ad hit against Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, in the state’s Senate primary, calling Hunt “fake MAGA” and claiming he missed votes in Congress.

WaPo: “If we are going to embrace unconventional, hungry, smart, ambitious candidates, we’re going to have a reckoning with [the fact] that they don’t have the typical [background],” said New York City Council member Justin Brannan of the controversy surrounding Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner’s tattoo, which some said resembled a Nazi symbol.

Axios: Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., praised the political talents of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., as she reportedly mulls a 2028 presidential bid. “I’ve been out on the streets with her, people come up and how she responds to people is so incredibly genuine and open,” Sanders said. “That’s a gift that she has.”

White House

• President Trump’s White House ballroom project is now expected to cost $300 million.

Congress

• Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., will give a speech at the Hudson Institute today touting the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal signed at the White House in August.

Outside the Beltway

• San Francisco’s mayor decried the arrival of more than 100 federal immigration agents and a looming National Guard deployment in the city as “intentionally creating a dangerous situation.” — SF Chronicle

Inside the Beltway

• Thousands of CMS staffers will be recalled to help deal w