Hello from New York.

It’s a big week for Democrats. A year before the midterms, they should be harvesting so much political hay that they need extra barns for storage. Much of the national government is closed for business, so millions of Americans—from federal workers to food-stamp recipients—are unsure how they will pay their bills. By next weekend, barring some unlikely intervention, the shutdown will be the longest ever, a miserable record.

The Supreme Court on Wednesday will hear arguments on whether Donald Trump can really slap emergency tariffs on imports whenever he fancies, and without bothering to consult Congress. With the costs and uncertainty his tariffs have created, this issue should be near the front of voters’ minds. They don’t sound too happy. Our regularly updated presidential tracker (check it out) suggests that Mr Trump’s handling of the economy has a net disapproval of about 20 percentage points. On inflation, it is more like minus 30. On both, remember, he had enjoyed net approval when he came to office. And things could get worse for Mr Trump, with investors increasingly worried about a stockmarket correction.

On Tuesday the Democrats should scoop some much-needed election victories. If they don’t win the governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey then something is going desperately wrong for the centrist, sensible bit of the party. Then there is young Zohran Mamdani, who is on course for a big victory in New York’s mayoral election. His triumph would be a moment for the Democratic Socialist wing of the party to cheer. (I urge you, by the by, to read our profile of Curtis Sliwa, the no-hoper Republican candidate. This ageing figure survived a mob assassination attempt years ago, which is the craziest of New York stories.)

Perhaps the most interesting vote, however, is the one taking place in California at the behest of Gavin Newsom, that state’s governor. Prop 50 asks the public for permission to gerrymander voting districts to squeeze out some additional seats for Democrats in the race for the House next year. It’s a response to gerrymandering under way by Republicans in Texas and elsewhere. It will tell you something about the Democrats’ readiness to fight hard in the midterms—and will give a clue to Mr Newsom’s own standing.

Last week I asked for your thoughts on Venezuela, and whether an American-led war is looming. Patricia, born in Colombia but now living in Seattle, wants to see the authoritarian regime in Venezuela gone, but warns of the high risk to human life of any invasion. Taimoon Stewart offers her analysis from Trinidad and Tobago. She observes that her country’s coastline is just seven miles from Venezuela at the closest point and suggests that “our PM is giving full support to the US intervention supposedly to wipe out drug traffickers. At the moment there are some 13 naval ships docked in our waters and more coming.” Taimoon says fury in Trinidad, because it has become “a transit point for drugs from Latin America”, leads many to support any American attempt to topple Nicolás Maduro.

Many more of you—including Cathleen Wineinger, Joyce Finn and Beata Stasak—suggest that the pressure on Venezuela, the illegal attacks on boats at sea, and efforts to topple Mr Maduro, together mark an unwelcome return to American “gunboat” diplomacy in the region. Pieraldo Pecchio suggests that, after any success in Venezuela, Mr Trump will attempt regime change in Cuba. Finally, Robert Phillipson, who says he spent a dozen years in Latin America assigned to various US embassies, sees a grandstanding effort by a president who “requires that he is at the top of the news cycle”. Robert also suggests it’s just possible that “a real effort for regime change might move second-tier officers to turn on their seniors who they might come to believe would suffer wealth-loss and jail time in the future”.

Meanwhile, I urge you to sign up to our newest newsletter, Well Informed. This is your chance to hear from my clever science colleagues, who each Sunday will walk you through the evidence on health and wellness questions—like whether red meat is unhealthy, whether posh moisturiser is worth the money, and how much coffee is the right amount. You’ll also get the chance to follow links back to the research they cite. 

I’m spending the rest of this week in New York, both because it remains a fabulous city and to get a better sense of the politics here. So my question for you concerns the Democratic Party. Whether you’re a Yankee or a foreign observer of American politics, do you see the Democrats getting themselves sorted out, with sufficiently appealing policies and leaders, to mount a strong campaign for the midterms next year? Write to me with your thoughts at economisttoday@economist.com.