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The COP30 climate conference has entered its second week in Belem, Brazil, with countries still struggling to agree on the focus of the ultimate summit deal – or whether there should even be one. A key point of contention remains whether countries will pledge to phase out of fossil fuels, which currently account for nearly 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Some countries, including host Brazil, are angling for a strong statement building on the COP28 promise to transition away from fossil fuels. But it’s unclear if the summit will deliver on that before it concludes on November 21.

A lot has changed since 2015 when 195 nations signed the landmark Paris climate agreement to limit global warming. Like the International Energy Agency indicated last week, demand for oil and gas may continue rising well into the 2050s give the current trajectory for government policies.

One thing is certain. The spirit of cooperation that once reigned has been shattered by economic rivalries and a stark divergence in climate policies among the world’s biggest polluters. More on this below

Here are a few other energy headlines and ROI columns from recent days:

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Ten years on from the Paris climate agreement, there is little doubt that a lot has been done towards the energy transition - global renewables consumption has tripled, with solar alone growing more than seven-fold, for example. But the hard truth is that fossil fuel consumption has continued rising, with the share of wind and solar in the world's energy mix growing from 4% to 9% of the mix over the past decade.

Perhaps just as significantly, the energy transition in recent years has split into three distinct paths represented by the United States, China and Europe, as regional economic and political realities trump global cooperation.

China – the world's largest energy consumer and CO2 emitter – has shaped its energy policy by an ambition to reduce its reliance on imports. This has driven investments in domestic sources of energy, be they coal, oil, gas or renewables, while also scaling up electric vehicle manufacturing and other green technologies to reduce demand for imported fossil fuels over the long term.

Indeed, China is today the undisputed leader in many of the technologies and materials that underpin the world's energy transition, such as solar panels, batteries and rare earths.

Pump till you drop

The United States, on the other hand, has stepped back from its climate commitments under President Donald Trump to focus on a fossil fuel energy dominance agenda. The United States is today the world's largest oil producer and the top exporter of liquefied natural gas, accounting for a fifth of global supplies for both fuels. This wealth of resources will likely to continue to dominate its energy policy for decades.

Finally, Europe’s lofty energy policy ambitions have been dealt a harsh blow following the energy price shock that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Europe, like China, is seeking to reduce energy imports, but its heavy investment in renewables has proven expensive and subject to its own risks, given China's dominance in renewables supply chains.

A decade after the Paris climate deal, China, the United States and Europe have each embarked on a distinctly different energy path, with strategic and economic realities taking precedence over unified ambitions.

This does not mean the energy transition will cease moving forward, but it will likely do so in a bumpier, fractured and more self-interested fashion that idealists may have expected ten years ago.

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