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The US stock market experienced its most significant intraday reversal since April Thursday, with the Nasdaq-100 Index falling 2.4% and the S&P 500 Index dropping 1.6%, wiping out more than $2.7 trillion in market value. Theories for the sell-off include concerns about the profitability of AI projects, a strong jobs report suggesting the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates, and a significant drop in bitcoin.
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US Treasury yields fell as traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next month following a mixed jobs report. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest in nearly four years, even as job growth increased. The yield on two-year notes dropped to a two-week low of 3.55%. However, some Fed officials have expressed caution about further easing, citing elevated inflation.
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Goldman Sachs' John Flood attributes Thursday's dramatic US stock reversal to intense hedging and risk aversion despite Nvidia's strong earnings. The S&P 500 swung from a 1.9% gain to a 1.1% loss, erasing more than $2 trillion in value. Flood notes poor liquidity and increased shorting across macro products, but he says similar past reversals have led to positive performance in subsequent weeks.
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The US economy added 119,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations, according to a delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics report. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The mixed results could perpetuate the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming December policy meeting. "This isn't going to change anybody's mind," said David Seif of Nomura.
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Vanguard's fixed-income chief, Sara Devereux, says the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates only once or twice following two quarter-point reductions this fall, contrary to Wall Street's expectations of three to four cuts by 2026. Devereux says robust growth fueled by artificial intelligence spending will limit the Fed's ability to ease policy without stoking inflation, and she also warns that corporate debt prices may face pressure from a surge in bond issuance.
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Taking the time to generate a large number of ideas, even if most of them fail, increases the likelihood of breakthrough success, writes Kyle Austin Young, a strategy consultant and author. Young suggests using AI to assist in brainstorming, evaluating ideas against a clear definition of success and trying out ideas with a low probability of success first to fail fast and reveal new opportunities.
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