CFA Society New York SmartBrief
Goldman: Hedging focus behind dramatic US stock reversal
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November 21, 2025
 
 
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Traders grapple with AI concerns, jobs, crypto drop
The US stock market experienced its most significant intraday reversal since April Thursday, with the Nasdaq-100 Index falling 2.4% and the S&P 500 Index dropping 1.6%, wiping out more than $2.7 trillion in market value. Theories for the sell-off include concerns about the profitability of AI projects, a strong jobs report suggesting the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates, and a significant drop in bitcoin.
Full Story: Bloomberg (11/20), CNBC (11/21)
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Industry Update
 
Treasury yields drop as traders eye Fed rate cut in Dec.
US Treasury yields fell as traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next month following a mixed jobs report. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest in nearly four years, even as job growth increased. The yield on two-year notes dropped to a two-week low of 3.55%. However, some Fed officials have expressed caution about further easing, citing elevated inflation.
Full Story: CNBC (11/21), The Wall Street Journal (11/20), Bloomberg (11/20)
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Goldman: Hedging focus behind dramatic US stock reversal
Goldman Sachs' John Flood attributes Thursday's dramatic US stock reversal to intense hedging and risk aversion despite Nvidia's strong earnings. The S&P 500 swung from a 1.9% gain to a 1.1% loss, erasing more than $2 trillion in value. Flood notes poor liquidity and increased shorting across macro products, but he says similar past reversals have led to positive performance in subsequent weeks.
Full Story: Bloomberg (11/20)
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Fed uncertainty remains after Sept. jobs report
The US economy added 119,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations, according to a delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics report. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The mixed results could perpetuate the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming December policy meeting. "This isn't going to change anybody's mind," said David Seif of Nomura.
Full Story: The Wall Street Journal (11/20), Yahoo (11/20), The New York Times (11/20)
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Vanguard predicts fewer Fed cuts, strong AI-driven growth
Vanguard's fixed-income chief, Sara Devereux, says the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates only once or twice following two quarter-point reductions this fall, contrary to Wall Street's expectations of three to four cuts by 2026. Devereux says robust growth fueled by artificial intelligence spending will limit the Fed's ability to ease policy without stoking inflation, and she also warns that corporate debt prices may face pressure from a surge in bond issuance.
Full Story: Financial Times (11/21)
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New York Focus
 
Mpox cases rise in NYC, with 88 reported since October
Mpox, a contagious viral disease primarily transmitted through intimate contact, is spreading in New York City, with 88 cases reported since October and 25 cases just this month. The New York City Department of Health notes that symptoms include rash, sores and flu-like symptoms. Residents are advised to consider vaccination for protection.
Full Story: WCBS-TV/WLNY-TV (New York City) (11/19), WPIX-TV (New York City) (11/19)
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NYC bar offers N. America's largest Japanese whisky selection
Teruko, a Japanese restaurant in the basement of New York City's Hotel Chelsea, houses the largest collection of Japanese whisky in North America, with 365 bottles. Beverage director Brian Evans highlights the artistry of blending, aging in Japanese wood and food compatibility as key aspects of Japanese whisky.
Full Story: Punch (11/18)
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Career Development
 
If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try, try again
 
If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try, try again
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Taking the time to generate a large number of ideas, even if most of them fail, increases the likelihood of breakthrough success, writes Kyle Austin Young, a strategy consultant and author. Young suggests using AI to assist in brainstorming, evaluating ideas against a clear definition of success and trying out ideas with a low probability of success first to fail fast and reveal new opportunities.
Full Story: SmartBrief/Leadership (11/11)
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