Diesel doesn't share crude's optimism on Ukraine

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Power Up

 

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

By Ron Bousso, ROI Energy Columnist

 
 

Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more energy news, click here. Please send any feedback to powerup@thomsonreuters.com.

Hello Power Up readers,

Oil and gas prices dipped after reports emerged last week that the United States was brokering a new initiative to end the war in Ukraine. The initial 28-point plan looked like a non-starter for Ukraine, but following weekend talks in Geneva between American and Ukrainian officials, the two sides said they had drafted a “refined peace framework.”

A cessation of Russia’s nearly four-year long full-scale invasion of its western neighbour remains a dim prospect, but Brent crude prices, a bellwether for geopolitical tensions, have lost around 1.5% since the initial reports on November 20.

Yet, curiously, diesel prices have had a much more modest relief rally. Diesel supplies have tightened significantly in recent months as a result of the conflict, and that is unlikely to change any time soon. More on this below.

COP OUT

In what has become a regular feature of the UN’s annual climate conferences, the COP30 summit in Belem on Saturday went into extra-time. Intense negotiations yielded a closing compromise that should boost financing for poor nations coping with global warming, but the deal omitted any mention of the fossil fuels driving the problem.

Host Brazil had hoped to demonstrate global unity in the fight against climate change, particularly in the absence of the United States, by building on the COP28 pledge to shift away from fossil fuels. But instead the talks revealed a deep rift, with the Arab Group of oil producing nations and other countries dependent on fossil fuels opposing any mention of the need to rein in the use of the energy sources responsible for the majority of carbon emissions.

Here is a great summary of the main takeaways.

And here are a few more headlines from recent days:

  • Staying in Brazil, ROI Asia Commodities Columnist Clyde Russell argues that the weak COP30 statement was probably the best outcome that could realistically have been expected of the climate summit.
  • Next, Reuters Rich Valdmanis wrote a great analysis on how the absence of the United States in Brazil has exposed the fragility of the fight against climate change.
  • Moving away from COP30, ROI Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire explains why we may need to question the popular LNG market narrative that shipments of the U.S. "freedom gas" will continue climbing to all markets for years to come.

And finally, I’d like to remind readers that there will be no Power Up newsletter on Thanksgiving, November 27, but we will be back as usual next Monday. Happy holidays to all those celebrating!

I love to get your thoughts and comments, so don’t hesitate to contact me at ron.bousso@thomsonreuters.com or follow me on LinkedIn.

 
 

Top energy headlines

  • Oil steady as investors weigh hopes for Ukraine peace talks, Fed rate cut
  • BHP must get over Anglo, focus on growth projects, investors say
  • Turkey's TUNAS, South Korea's KEPCO sign deal on nuclear power cooperation
  • Nigeria's NNPC posts 64% rise in annual net profit to $3.6 billion
  • US companies hold the line at climate talks despite Trump
 
 

DIESEL SKEPTICISM

Diesel spreads have not shared the relief reflected in the recent declines in crude oil prices since the new Ukraine peace initiative was floated.

While benchmark European diesel prices have declined since news of the ceasefire discussions broke last week, prices remain around 8% above their October 22 levels. Moreover, diesel refining margins - the profit made from converting crude oil into fuel – have risen by 17% over that period to roughly $29 a barrel.

This divergence has several causes. First, global diesel output is low, while the crude market is believed to be on the cusp of a huge glut, with the International Energy Agency forecasting crude supply to exceed demand by 4 million bpd next year.

Diesel supply has taken a big hit in recent months. Russia is the world's second-largest diesel exporter after the United States. Ukraine's continued attacks on Russian refineries and export facilities have significantly curtailed Moscow’s fuels exports, with diesel shipments totalling just 669,000 bpd in October, only slightly higher than in September, when exports hit their lowest point since the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

U.S. windfall

U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have further disrupted diesel supply. The two oil giants collectively exported so far this year around 270,000 bpd of diesel, roughly 37% of total Russian exports and 9% of global exports, according to Kpler. Sanctions will likely make Turkey and Brazil, the main buyers of Russian diesel, seek out other sources, increasing demand for the limited supply of non-sanctioned diesel.

Perhaps more significant for diesel prices is the European Union's latest sanctions package against Russia that is set to take effect on January 21. These measures ban imports of fuels made from Russian crude into the EU, one of the world’s largest diesel markets.

The main beneficiaries of all these dislocations appear to be U.S. Gulf Coast refineries that are set to increase diesel exports to Europe.

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