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Welcome back! The holidays are coming up, which means it’s time for another surge in SpaceX share prices. The Elon Musk-founded company is planning to keep up its tradition of a twice-annual tender offer, with the new price expected to be set in December, according to multiple people familiar with the space giant’s plans. It was last valued at $400 billion this summer in a sale of existing shares. At the time, it was the most valuable startup, but it wasn’t long before OpenAI surpassed that with its $500 billion valuation. Rumors abound about how investors will next value the space and internet business. Could it be $420 billion, one of founder Musk’s favorite numbers? Or would it be $500 billion, tying the record for most-valuable startup, on par with Musk-rival Sam Altman? The company is surveying demand from investors but has not yet decided on a price, I’m told. One thing that has become clear is that SpaceX’s formula of regularly allowing investors and employees to sell shares does not appear to be ending anytime soon. Demand is high and a potential public offering is a long way off, insiders say. That’s a change from the past. A few years ago, Musk said he expected SpaceX would eventually spin off satellite internet service Starlink and take it public. But executives haven’t been working towards that outcome lately and a spinoff may never happen, the people said. That’s because SpaceX’s rocket business is in better shape relative to Starlink than it once was. A few years ago, Starlink’s margins from selling subscriptions for $120 a month were expected to be higher than those for SpaceX’s rocket launches, making a spinoff of the stronger business more attractive. But its core rocket launch revenue has grown and there is ample demand from investors to buy part of the combined business. Jared Carmel, founder and managing partner of Manhattan Venture Partners, which owns SpaceX shares sold by existing shareholders, said that he sees continued demand for the business “because it’s delivering on both proven revenue and moonshot potential.” He pointed to strong market share, with SpaceX launching the vast majority of satellites and other payloads, by mass, into space globally. SpaceX’s overall business is on track for $15.5 billion in annual revenue, Musk posted on X in June. It has about $3 billion in cash, The Wall Street Journal reported in July. “It’s rare to find a private company that’s both printing money today and positioned to define the trillion-dollar space economy tomorrow,” Carmel added. Last year around this time, SpaceX received a large jump in demand from investors, which pushed up its valuation to $350 billion from $180 billion, in part due to Musk’s ties to newly-elected President Donald Trump after Musk poured $250 million into his re-election campaign. The two now have a complicated relationship. Earlier this year Musk publicly slammed Trump on the president’s landmark budget bill, prompting Trump to threaten to revoke some federal subsidies to Musk companies. Musk was back at the White House last week for a dinner with Saudi officials. But SpaceX has been unaffected by Musk-related drama, with investors saying they like the business fundamentals: namely that it’s growing, generates cash and has high barriers to entry. One person familiar with SpaceX’s business pointed to growth in the government business, like its recently reported $2 billion deal with the Pentagon. Would SpaceX ever need to raise more money in a private financing or an IPO? Possibly some day, said one insider. SpaceX has recently been buying costly spectrum, like the $17 billion it purchased from EchoStar to enhance Starlink’s mobile coverage for cell phones in hard-to-reach areas. The business could also spend money on artificial intelligence initiatives, with Musk tweeting in October that SpaceX will build data centers in space. For now, SpaceX investors are still forecasting, dare I say, rocket ship-like growth. —Cory Weinberg contributed to this report.
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