Niall Ferguson: The Beginning of the End of the Ukraine-Russia War Trump’s latest peacemaking initiative has a better chance of success than the skeptics realize. Both Ukraine and Russia now need a respite from war.
Servicemen of the 808th Dniester Separate Support Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces work beside an explosive hazard-clearance machine during demining operations on a liberated territory in Kherson region, Ukraine, on November 22, 2025. (Photo by Dmytro Smolienko/Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
And so the familiar rituals of peacemaking resume. The president of the United States seeks to broker a ceasefire between two warring countries. A document, intended to be used as a starting point, is partially leaked by one side, then wholly leaked by the other side. There is controversy in the press about its provenance and significance. The negotiators gather in a neutral location. Although there are only two combatant countries, there turn out to be many others with skin in the game. While the diplomacy continues, so does the war, each side seeking to gain leverage from military pressure. This article is featured in International. Sign up here to get an update every time a new piece is published. And on it goes. And on. President Donald Trump originally set a Thanksgiving deadline (tomorrow) for Ukraine to accept a new 28-point plan for peace with Russia. A high-level U.S. delegation met with Ukrainian representatives in Geneva over the weekend to delete some of the 28 points and revise some of the others, before meeting with Russian spokesmen early this week in Abu Dhabi. However, as Trump admitted last week, the Thanksgiving deadline was never a hard one: “I’ve had a lot of deadlines, but if things are working well, you tend to extend the deadlines.” You also tend to extend them when things are not working well...
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