Gulf

1. Oil in the $30s? Not likely
2. UAE lobbying on Sudan
3. IMF praise for Oman
4. Qatar funds land cables
5. Saudi-FIFA ties deepen

A fading ayatollah, and other weekend reads.

Oil price forecasts are too bearish

There’s too much pessimism in oil markets these days, at least according to one prominent expert. While many analysts see a glut coming — the most bearish forecast from JPMorgan puts global benchmark Brent at $30 a barrel by 2027, albeit in a scenario it views as unlikely — the long-term view of oil sticking around $60 a barrel also misses the mark, according to Bloomberg’s energy and commodities columnist Javier Blas. Annual demand is still rising close to the historical average, an increase that should clear a market overhang by 2028 and push prices higher. So while oil could trade in the $40s next year, it will likely rebound to above $75 by 2030, Blas writes.

Gulf producers aren’t buying the market’s pessimism, either. Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are investing aggressively at home and abroad, expanding output capacity, pouring billions into exploration, and building trading and refining arms. If their bet on higher prices pans out, it will also help countries that are borrowing to diversify their economies to plug their deficits over the next decade.

UAE dodges EU censure over Sudan

The UAE dodged a diplomatic bullet, after the European Parliament passed a resolution on the Sudan war which made no mention of Abu Dhabi’s alleged support for the RSF militia. The text condemned atrocities by both sides in the war and called for an immediate ceasefire, but, amid a reported lobbying blitz by the UAE, amendments criticizing the Gulf country were omitted. Instead, there were merely references to “external enablers.”

Lana Nusseibeh, UAE envoy to the European Union, praised the “timely” resolution, backed calls for a ceasefire, and said both the RSF and its adversary, the Sudanese Armed Forces, had caused “profound suffering.” A UAE official played down the idea of a big lobbying effort, telling Politico that Nusseibeh was in Strasbourg where the parliament was meeting as part of her “regular portfolio of engagements.”

Saudi Arabia has been pushing US President Donald Trump to help resolve the conflict. A recent White House peace plan has been met with a mixed reception from the combatants.

— Dominic Dudley

IMF lauds Oman’s economic progress

The IMF has given a solid endorsement to Oman, pointing to its low inflation, consistent fiscal and current account surpluses, and limited government debt. In comments published after a two-week trip to the country in November, IMF mission chief for Oman Abdullah Al-Hassan said “the economic outlook remains favourable.”

Oman’s fortunes have been turned around since Sultan Haitham Al-Said came to power at the start of the decade — in part because of a willingness to take politically risky decisions; an income tax on high earners is due to be introduced in 2028, in a first for the Gulf.

Even so, there are plenty of economic pressures. Government revenue was down 8% year-on-year in the third quarter amid lower oil prices, but spending edged up 2%. The IMF has urged “continued progress” on tax and subsidy reforms to keep the country’s finances on a sustainable path.

— Dominic Dudley

Qatar plans a new data route

Attribution: “Submarine Cable Map,” via TeleGeography, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.

Qatar is planning a new overland data-cable corridor to Europe, joining regional efforts to find alternatives to the Red Sea’s vulnerable subsea routes. The country’s biggest telecom company Ooredoo will invest more than $500 million in fiber running from Oman through Iraq and Türkiye into Europe, a path it says will deliver faster connections.

The Gulf’s artificial intelligence ambitions are driving such infrastructure spending. Saudi Arabia and Syria are in talks on a separate $500 million link that would connect the kingdom to Europe. That project will help turn Saudi data centers into regional compute hubs, offering redundancy to the vulnerable Red Sea chokepoint that dominates global internet flows.

— Mohammed Sergie

Saudi has another $1B for FIFA

FIFA has signed a deal with the government-backed Saudi Fund for Development that could unlock $1 billion in loans for stadium construction around the globe. The agreement provides finance to build and rehabilitate sports grounds and related infrastructure, particularly in poorer countries. It deepens links between football’s governing body and Saudi Arabia, which will host the 2034 men’s World Cup and has already invested billions in the sport.

The deal also comes amid growing scrutiny of Gulf influence over world football. Riyadh argues it is investing in sports as a way to diversify its economy away from oil, dismissing accusations of “sportswashing.” FIFA President Gianni Infantino is a regular visitor to Saudi Arabia these days and was also at the White House during Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s recent visit, looming in the background of Ronaldo’s viral selfie.

— Manal Albarakati

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Deals

• Saudi Public Investment Fund-owned Savvy Games Group is reportedly in talks to buy TikTok-owner ByteDance’s Moonton, the studio behind Mobile Legends. The move would revive ByteDance’s shelved sale and reinforce Saudi Arabia’s bid to become a gaming powerhouse. — Bloomberg.
• ADNOC Gas signed a 20-year, $4 billion deal to supply natural gas to UAE-based steelmaker Emsteel. The company said the fuel, labeled as “lower-carbon natural gas,” will help Emsteel manage its emissions.

Expat life

• Kuwait’s expat population faces a sharp rise in residency and visa fees from the end of the year, amid an ongoing clampdown on those violating local rules. Fines for overstaying a visa and other infractions have also been hiked. Despite this, the government has insisted it is keen to attract more foreign investment and improve the business environment.

Health care

• Morocco’s largest private health care provider, Akdital Holding, is raising equity and issuing bonds to fund a $1.6 billion expansion into Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with Mecca and Dubai among its priority sites. — Bloomberg

Space

• Oman’s space program is taking off. The country is hiring Airbus to build its first communications satellite, giving Muscat its own network covering the Middle East, East Africa, and parts of Asia. It’s the biggest step yet in the five-year-old program and comes amid other communications upgrades, including a recent subsea data and electricity link with the UAE. — AGBI

• Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, is losing stature among his peers after failing to deter Israel, and leadership-by-committee is taking form in Tehran, write Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh in The Wall Street Journal.
• Gulf states’ AI push is running into the US-China tech rivalry. The EU might provide a neutral alternative, according to an analysis by the European Council on Foreign Relations.
• A Dubai-based company that signed splashy carbon-credit deals across Africa has all but vanished. AFP and investigative organization Code for Africa report that agreements signed during COP28 in Dubai never proceeded into emissions offsets.