![]() We are offering a limited cyber sale now that offers you savings of 75% at $1 a week. Don't miss out. Sign up now.Greetings!Netflix may have a shot at winning this thing. In the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount has long been seen as the favorite. That was the case when the week began and folks logged back on after a long Thanksgiving weekend (aside from the surely ragged investment bankers who worked non-stop through the holiday to assemble those second-round bids). But there's definitely been a vibe shift over the last few days, with chatter than WBD's board has warmed to the idea of Netflix being a steward of the legacy assets. WBD CEO David Zaslav also has a stronger relationship with Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos than Paramount Skydance chief David Ellison. Just look at online prediction site Polymarket, which had the percentage chance of Netflix acquiring WBD at 4.3% on Monday morning. Just two days later, and its chances have shot to 31% (Paramount continues to be the favorite at 53%). While these predictions don't necessarily correlate with what's going on behind the scenes, they're a reflection of what people are feeling. Wall Street is also starting to clock the idea that Netflix could actually end up acquiring WBD's studio and streaming business. That's likely why shares slipped 5% on Wednesday, although co-founder Reed Hastings disclosing he sold more than $40 million worth of stock likely didn't ease any of the anxiety. Why would investors be so nervous? Such a deal would represent Netflix's largest acquisition by a wide margin. Its biggest deal so far has been the $700 million acquisition of the Roald Dahl Story Co. back in 2021. WBD has a market cap of $60.8 billion, and the streaming and studio assets make up a large majority of that value. Trying to integrate a massive business like a legacy studio would plunge them into the deep end of the theatrical business, something Netflix has largely kept at a distance. There's also the matter of what to do with the streaming business, which competes directly against its own service. Folding these businesses would take time and potentially distract leadership from executing on the core service. That also assumes Netflix would get the greenlight to buy the WBD assets. The White House has already signaled antitrust concerns over Netflix owning another streaming business, and there is the question of whether the company would have too much control over the entertainment business. Having to deal with the regulatory hurdles for an extended period is just another distraction Netflix doesn't need — at least in the minds of investors. History shows us most mergers don't deliver on initial promises, and melding two corporate cultures is an uphill battle Or this could all just be hype to get even higher bids. WBD shares ticked up to $24.57 today, while Paramount shares fell 7.2% to $14.67. Shares of Comcast, which has been the subject of less chatter in the last few days, rose 1.5% to $27.43. Shares of acquiring companies rarely get a bump, and mostly slip due to concerns over whether an acquisition will be dilutive to earnings, and all the other headaches. Roger Cheng
So here's what we know about the second-round bids...
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