Good morning. Andrew here. We’re going deep on the Netflix-Warner Bros. Discovery deal today. President Trump’s declaration last night that “I’ll be involved in that decision” about whether the megamerger should be approved may be the first time any president made explicit his influence over a transaction’s fate. We’ll see how much time Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery get to celebrate their transaction before regulators — and Paramount — may try to upend it. In an apparent case of small-world, big-wallet coincidence, David Zaslav, Warner Bros. Discovery’s C.E.O., and his wife happened to sit at a table at the Polo Bar in Manhattan on Friday night just a few feet from Ted Sarandos, the co-C.E.O. of Netflix, who was with his wife, Nicole Avant; Roger Goodell, the N.F.L. commissioner; and Harold Ford Jr., the former congressman. Zaslav walked over to Sarandos’s table for a chat and, eventually, an impromptu photo session with Goodell. Backslapping and joking ensued as patrons craned their necks to watch. A programming note: At the DealBook Summit last week, we assembled four groups of thought leaders we call Task Forces for in-depth conversations led by Times journalists. Two more sessions are available to watch on YouTube: The investigative reporter Jodi Kantor hosted a discussion about the state of higher education with presidents of some of the nation’s top colleges, and the Times Opinion columnist David Brooks moderated a panel of top C.E.O.s for a talk about leadership. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)
“I’ll be involved”Netflix executives sounded confident on Friday that their $72 billion deal to buy Warner Bros. Discovery would overcome what is probably its biggest hurdle: approval by federal regulators. But President Trump, who in this era appears to hold a say on any major transaction, has cast some doubt. That’s scrambling investor calculus on the deal, and raises questions about the future of Warner Bros. Discovery. The Netflix deal “could be a problem,” Trump told reporters yesterday. The issue is Netflix’s dominance of the paid streaming market: “They have a very big market share, and when they have Warner Bros., you know, that share goes up a lot.” The president suggested that he’d consult with “some economists,” and made clear that “I’ll be involved in” whether the deal passes. His comments revived regulatory concerns. During the auction of Warner Bros. Discovery, several analysts, investors and Hollywood figures suggested that Netflix buying Warner Bros. Discovery would give it too much power. (Paramount, another bidder whose backers include the billionaire Larry Ellison, is close to Trump, has made the same argument.) Netflix executives sought to tamp down those worries. “We’d say we’re highly confident in the regulatory process,” Ted Sarandos, Netflix’s co-C.E.O., told analysts. “This deal is pro-consumer, pro-innovation, pro-worker, it’s pro-creator, it’s pro-growth.” One reason Sarandos probably felt confident: He had been personally wooing Trump, including at a recent visit to the White House in which he made the case for Netflix’s bid, according to Bloomberg. Sarandos apparently left that meeting convinced that the White House was on board with his bid. Trump himself confirmed meeting with Sarandos, whom he called “fantastic.” Wall Street’s reaction: Shares in Netflix, which fell nearly 3 percent on Friday, were up in premarket trading today after Trump’s comments. Those in Warner Bros. Discovery, which had jumped 6 percent on the deal, are down this morning. Shares in Paramount, which had seen buying Warner Bros. Paramount as a big part of its future, tumbled 9 percent on Friday — but were up in premarket trading today. Analysts and commentators are waiting to see whether Paramount will try to interfere with the Netflix offer, including by going directly to Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders.
Todd Combs, a Berkshire Hathaway stock picker, jumps to JPMorgan Chase. Combs, who joined Berkshire in 2010 to help oversee the conglomerate’s investment portfolio and later became C.E.O. of its Geico insurer, will oversee a new JPMorgan initiative that will invest $10 billion of the bank’s own money in U.S. enterprises. (Combs is already a JPMorgan board member.) It’s the latest shake-up at Berkshire before Greg Abel takes over as C.E.O. from Warren Buffett at year end. China’s trade surplus surges to a record. A big rebound in shipments has pushed the country’s net exports above $1 trillion this year, outpacing forecasts and coming as shipments to the U.S. have plummeted. (Chinese imports of American products, including soybeans, have also dropped sharply.) At the same time, tepid domestic demand has weakened China’s currency, potentially creating further trade distortions. Investors await the Fed, earnings and jobs data. Futures traders this morning are penciling in a quarter-point rate cut at the central bank’s meeting on Wednesday, but multiple dissents from policymakers are expected. Elsewhere, earnings from Oracle on Wednesday and Broadcom on Thursday should provide important detail on the state of the artificial intelligence trade, and the release tomorrow of JOLTS employment data will shed new light on the labor market. A potentially costly market rallyCopper is trading in record territory today in London, extending a sky-high run. Trade war jitters and investor enthusiasm for commodities useful for artificial intelligence have the metal on a run for the ages. But there’s an unexpectedly troubling aspect to the rally, Bernhard Warner reports. Soaring copper prices risk amping up inflation just as the Trump administration grapples with an affordability crunch that could hurt Republicans in midterm elections next year. Demand has been soaring. Copper is widely used in manufacturing, and is an especially crucial material in cars, military equipment and more. In particular, Big Tech’s immense spending on A.I. is most likely driving up prices, with miles of copper wiring and cabling needed in newly built data centers. (Soaring copper prices also usually draws out scrap metal thieves, who plunder streetlights, train yards and plumbing lines to capitalize on demand.) “Higher copper prices could complicate the inflation story,” Adam Turnquist, the chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, told DealBook. Price spikes tend to hit business and consumers hard, but unlike with oil, the effect tends to be drawn out. Each 1 percent rise in copper prices appears to push headline inflation up by a tenth of a percentage point in some high-exposure countries after two years, the I.M.F. calculated.
Then there’s trade policy. Copper jumped this summer as President Trump weighed a stiff tariff on imports of the metal. Trump ultimately imposed levies that were tamer than expected, opting not to put new duties on raw copper, and the metal’s price plummeted. That trade has reversed in recent weeks, as investors fear that the Trump administration will impose new tariffs on the metal next year. That partly explains a major jolt in global flows, as traders frantically ship copper to the U.S. to get ahead of levies. “Trade policy has been a major source of copper volatility this year,” Turnquist said. He added that the supply distortion between the U.S. and the rest of the world had “never been this high.” And then there have been disruptions in mining meccas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile and Indonesia. Together, these are feeding into a global supply crunch that could keep prices volatile, analysts warn. The big question is: Will all of this force the Trump administration to back off new levies again? What to do with Russia’s moneyAnother round of Ukraine talks is expected to take place today. European leaders will huddle with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to hammer out emergency support for Kyiv, after U.S.-Ukraine talks in Florida to halt Russia’s invasion stalled in this weekend. At the same time, debate is raging over how to rebuild the battle-torn country. Some analysts fear that one plan gaining traction could roil markets, spook investors and destabilize the euro, Vivienne Walt reports. What’s happening: Europe’s leaders want to use up to €140 billion ($163 billion) of Russian assets, most of which have been frozen in a low-profile securities depository called Euroclear since the war began in 2022. The plan, which E.U. leaders are set to vote on soon, would use the money to back a huge loan to Ukraine to bolster its military and economy. The scramble for financing has grown urgent since President Trump cut most U.S. aid to Ukraine, declaring it Europe’s problem. (The U.S. has its own designs on the Russian funds.) The proposal could have big consequences. Euroclear fears that the plan could damage its standing as a key player in global trade flows and expose it to lawsuits. The Brussels-based settlement house has custody over €42.5 trillion worth of assets. “If those international investors believe Europe can confiscate assets by political decisions, it might impact attractivity of Europe as a place where international investors invest their money, Guillaume Eliet, Euroclear’s chief risk officer, told DealBook. European leaders have tried to play down those fears. Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Union’s executive arm, said last week that bloc countries would share the legal and financial burden of the fund seizure — not Euroclear or Belgium. What about the reputational risk? Euroclear argues that seizing Russian funds in this way could spook other investors. That’s debatable, said Erik Nielsen, a senior adviser to Independent Economics, a London consulting firm, pointing to the British government’s move in 2008 to freeze assets of some Icelandic banks to protect some of its citizens and companies who had put their money there. “Was Britain’s reputation damaged? No.” Nielsen told DealBook. “Nobody seemed to care afterwards.”
Tom Hicks, buyout and sports mogul, dies at 79Tom Hicks, who gained wealth as a private equity pioneer and then fame as the owner of prominent sports teams such as the Texas Rangers and the Liverpool F.C. soccer club, died on Saturday, according to a spokeswoman. Hicks first rose to prominence as a financier in the 1980s, jumping on the leveraged buyout. In 1984, he co-founded the investment firm Hicks & Haas, which struck deals in industries including radio stations and consumer goods. (It bought the soda brands Dr Pepper and Seven-Up and merged the two before taking the combined company public.) After the dissolution of Hicks & Haas, Hicks co-founded the firm Hicks, Muse, Tate & Furst, which struck more than $50 billion worth of transactions. But Hicks, Muse was battered by several bad bets, including telecom companies that went bankrupt when the dot-com boom ended. (It later changed its name to HM Capital Partners and eventually dissolved.) By the time of his death, at 79, he focused on investing via Hicks Equity Partners, a private equity arm of his family office. Hicks became much better-known when he ventured into sports. In 1995, he bought control of the Dallas Stars of the N.H.L., which won a Stanley Cup in 1999. Three years later, he bought the Texas Rangers of M.L.B., which made it to the World Series in 2010. He had worse luck when he bought half of Liverpool in 2007. Fans of the English Premier League club criticized Hicks and his co-owner, George Gillett, over their treatment of Liverpool’s manager and their financial stewardship. But financial pressures forced Hicks to sell Liverpool in 2010 and the Rangers in 2010. The Stars filed for bankruptcy in 2011. Hicks was also known for philanthropy and public service, including as a commissioner of the American Battle Monuments Commission during the first Trump administration. We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times.
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