As we noted last week, the first year of the Trump tariff economy has mostly been hell on small businesses, while bigger players have found ways to adapt in the short term. But as Politico notes, even the big guys can only keep that going so long:

Retail giants have proven more adept than expected at cushioning the blow of President Donald Trump’s steep tariff hikes over the spring and summer, keeping prices for consumer goods from surging this year by as much as many economists anticipated. But business executives and corporate analysts are warning they can’t do that forever.

“In the first half of next year, we are concerned that consumers are going to start to see the price increases become a little more broad based, and there may not be all the [holiday sales] promotion to help clear through some of that,” Joseph Feldman, a senior managing director at Telsey Advisory Group, who focuses on the retail sector, said in an interview. “So that could be a little bit of a sticker shock for some people.”

Happy Monday.

The Next Two Weeks

by William Kristol

As we approach the darkest day of the year in a couple of weeks, it’s natural to take stock of the political darkness around us as well.

Yes, there are plenty of dark deeds to notice. In area after area, the Trump administration continues to do extraordinary damage to this country.

But it’s also noteworthy that in recent months the forces of darkness have suffered setbacks.

On September 30, we entered a government shutdown. Democrats took a political risk in going down that path. But it’s pretty clear that they came out of that confrontation politically ahead. In particular, the issue of rising health care premiums was moved front and center.

Meanwhile, on October 18—No Kings Day—millions of Americans demonstrated peacefully and patriotically, putting the lie to Republican rhetoric about “hate America” and “‘pro-terrorist” gatherings. And on November 4, Republicans had a miserable off-year election day.

Then, two weeks later, on November 18, Congress voted to require the release of the Epstein files. And a little over a week after that, the coverup of the first Caribbean boat strike started to unravel. The unraveling has proceeded apace ever since.

The task now is straightforward: It’s to maintain momentum. It’s to keep the pressure on. It’s to make the next couple weeks as bad for the Trump administration and the Republican party as the past couple months have been.

This Thursday, as a result of the deal that ended the government shutdown, the Senate is set to vote on a Democratic proposal to extend the enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies for three years. The plan will almost assuredly fail due to Republican opposition. This should allow Democrats to spend all this week highlighting the health care issue in a favorable way.

And this in turn will lay the groundwork for a critique of Trump’s economic policies next week, when lots of data will be released and there’ll be a Federal Reserve Board meeting as well. It’s not just health care prices that are going up, after all! There’ll be a chance to bring home to voters that a year of Trump economic policies and Republican governance has led to both rising prices and a slowing economy.

Meanwhile, this week, after some members of Congress saw the complete video of the September 2 boat strike, Democrats can continue to make the case that all the footage, as well as other documentation, should be released to all of Congress and the American public. What response to this reasonable demand does the administration have? It was the administration, after all, that originally put out the first part of the video. The president recently said he’d be fine with the entirety of it being released. Let’s see the whole thing.

Along with that, Democrats can continue to explain that the entire campaign in the Caribbean is illegal and unauthorized. And they can warn that foolish and chest-thumping Trump administration policies could well be leading us into a wider and totally unnecessary war.

And then at the end of next week, on December 19, the Epstein files are due to be released. If the administration does release them, Democrats can highlight the Trump administration’s attempt for a whole year to cover them up until forced to give in. If the administration tries to continue the coverup, they’ll be even easier to attack. In any case, lots of Epstein news just before Christmas can’t be good for Trump.

So my plea to Democrats and to the entire opposition for the next two weeks is: Go to a few holiday parties (if that’s your thing). Make plans to enjoy the holidays and take a (short!) break from the political madness.

But not yet! For the next two weeks, press your advantage. Full speed ahead. It’s not yet time to indulge thoughts of peace and good will to all men (if that’s your thing). For the next two weeks, the kind of Christmas spirit we need is Washington crossing the Delaware and winning a victory for the cause of freedom.

‘Double-Tap’ Doublespeak

by Andrew Egger

The “double-tap” boat strike scandal seems to get more complicated by the hour. Not because the facts of what took place that September day are complicated, but because it’s getting difficult to keep track of all the lies, distortions, and whiplash-inducing story revisions the Pentagon and its Republican allies have floated the last few weeks.

When the Washington Post