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The era of controlled corporate narratives is being challenged by the rapid ascent of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms are introducing a volatile, real-time, and largely unregulated signal for valuing companies and forecasting their performance. For pre-IPO companies, this means a shift from opaque, quarterly valuations to a continuous referendum on their success; for public firms, it creates a parallel source of expectations that bypasses traditional Wall Street consensus.

This disruption is shadowed by a significant peril: the potential for rampant insider trading. Our reporting has identified suspiciously prescient bets on product launches at major tech firms, raising urgent governance questions. As companies like Coinbase and Robinhood move to update their insider trading policies, the industry is grappling with a regulatory gray area where "the wisdom of the crowd" may actually be fueled by nonpublic information.

We asked Deep Research to analyze the key areas of this disruption: how these markets impact pre-IPO pricing, the threat they pose to public company earnings expectations, and the massive internal compliance effort now required to mitigate legal and reputational risk across both sectors.

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