Washington, DC

1. Dem shift on shutdown
2. Inflation data questions
3. EU agrees $105B Kyiv loan
4. WH faces Epstein deadline
5. Hawley’s popularity
6. Clash for Kirk’s legacy

PDB: TikTok signs spinoff deal to avoid US ban

Trump in North Carolina … U Michigan to release consumer sentiment … NBC: Trump says he doesn’t rule out war with Venezuela

‘There’s been no discussion about shutdowns’

Democrats still want a health care deal and still have a shutdown deadline with leverage. Yet things are shaping up totally differently than the 43-day fall shutdown, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. “There’s been no discussion about shutdowns. I haven’t heard a word by any of my colleagues about a shutdown,” Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt., told Semafor. “And the last time in the run-up there was discussion about what we wanted: health care.” Indeed, Democrats seem to think they’ve made their point about health care, shifting Congress’ attention and successfully engineering a moderate rebellion in the House. Still, the question of whether Democrats can achieve a policy win could hang over their Jan. 30 shutdown decision-making. “We’ve certainly won the narrative on this, but I want to win the actual health care,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash.

Economists warn of distorted inflation data

Economists are warning that Thursday’s inflation report could end up being less instructive than usual after the government shutdown hamstrung data collection. One example: The Labor Department decided to estimate October housing costs as static, likely making overall inflation in the report appear cooler than it really is. “The November inflation report was like the data-nerd equivalent of the emperor-with-no-clothes story: We didn’t have basically any October data and limited November data,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told Semafor. “I don’t look at this and see anything nefarious; I don’t see anything political. … But the actual read, the number, is probably not 100% accurate.” President Donald Trump is slated to visit North Carolina today as his administration seeks to reassure voters concerned about affordability.

— Eleanor Mueller

EU to loan Ukraine $105B

European Union leaders coalesced behind a plan to loan Ukraine $105 billion in its fight against Russia, a significant development even as the bloc’s initial plan to use frozen Russian assets to finance the support failed. Instead, the loan will be backed by the bloc’s budget, after Belgium — where most of the frozen Russian assets are held — objected to the asset plan due to legal risks and financial repercussions. The news comes ahead of a meeting between US special envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Russian officials in Miami this weekend, as Trump grasps at a plan to end the war. Meanwhile, Russia is accelerating an assault on Ukraine’s energy grid into the winter months — a bombardment that risks nationwide blackouts, Vitaly Zaichenko, CEO of the country’s state-owned grid operator, told Semafor’s Tim McDonnell.

White House faces down Epstein deadline

The deadline for Trump’s Justice Department to release its files on convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein is today — but you wouldn’t know it by watching the White House. While a portion of Trump’s base (and Democrats) are acutely interested in the release of the files, Trump’s White House has largely dismissed the documents, with the president calling them “a hoax” and top aides warning the contents won’t provide any sort of smoking gun. But today’s deadline is also a source of relief for many working inside the administration who see the saga as an unwanted distraction from their work over the last few months — Trump more recently has called for the documents to be made public so they can “move on.” Meanwhile, recently released files are offering a glimpse into Epstein’s world: A new batch of images include Bill Gates and Sergey Brin.

— Shelby Talcott

Mo. voters back Hawley on wages, ACA

Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley takes a lot of idiosyncratic positions in the Republican Party: support for raising the minimum wage, skepticism of AI’s rise and extending the expiring Obamacare subsidies. Turns out, his stances are pretty popular in a conservative state like Missouri, according to polling shared with Semafor. A healthy majority of 55% of likely Missouri voters support extending the expiring Affordable Care Act tax credits, while 63% support raising the minimum wage. Roughly three-quarters of respondents said AI is likely to cost US jobs and support banning AI chatbots for kids, as well as Hawley’s proposal to cut taxes on health care expenses. And 69% of respondents support quicker union contracts. “Those are working-class positions, so it just reflects a slice of their life. My job is to give voice to that,” Hawley told Semafor.

— Burgess Everett

Right-wing media figures clash

Commentator Ben Shapiro denounced the most popular voices in Trump’s movement at a Turning Point USA gathering in Phoenix Thursday, scorching Candace Owens (her conspiracizing is “retarded”); Steve Bannon (“PR flack for Jeffrey Epstein”); Megyn Kelly (guilty of “moral and logical absurdity”); and Tucker Carlson (a cynic trying to take “power and leave you with none”). Carlson then took the stage, mocked Shapiro, called the Anti-Defamation League anti-white, and claimed slain activist Charlie Kirk’s mantle: “I’m not going to play by those rules.” There’s maybe only one national figure who’d be able to arbitrate this: Vice President JD Vance. Vance, Shapiro noted, is “good friends” with Carlson, who “could call him up for clarification at any time, but he won’t, because that might undermine the empty speculation.” Then Carlson accused Shapiro of trying to undermine Vance. Tony Dokoupil can ask the Veep.

— Ben Smith

Debatable: Mifepristone review

The Trump administration’s handling of the abortion drug mifepristone is dividing the Republican Party, Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant writes. Bloomberg reported this month that FDA Commissioner Marty Makary is slow-walking the administration’s promised safety review of the abortion drug, which physicians widely view as safe, as he looks to put it off until next year’s midterm elections. A White House official denied that the review is being delayed, noting that “comprehensive and exhaustive reviews take time.” Still, the report has led conservative abortion opponents like former Vice President Mike Pence to call for Makary’s ouster. “Unfettered abortion drugs by mail are creating a tragic public health crisis,” argues Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the anti-abortion organization Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. The White House is standing by Makary, calling the attacks on him “uninformed.”

What is Instagram in 2025? That was the first question on Ben Smith and Max Tani’s mind when they sat down with Adam Mosseri for this week’s Mixed Signals. The conversation covers the platform’s new move onto TV screens, the dominance of Reels and DMs, and whether “everything is becoming television.” Mosseri also explains how the company is competing with TikTok and YouTube, and whether “AI slop” is a legitimate concern for social media feeds.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Asked about the possibility of facing a challenger for his leadership role after the midterms, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said he’s “always worked hard for our caucus and tried to do the right thing,” and that “it’s always worked out, my whole career.”

Playbook: “I don’t think it’s going to put it to bed,” Laura Loomer said of today’s Epstein files release. “Because there are people out there who are determined to use this as a way to get Trump. Remember, I said, this is the new Russia collusion hoax. They are going to use this messaging in the 2026 midterms and possibly into the 2028 presidential election.”

Axios: Democratic strategists criticized the DNC for its decision not to release its 2024 autopsy. “How are Democrats going to learn from mistakes if we don’t have any concept of the depth and breadth of those mistakes?” said Rebecca Katz, who advises Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz.

WaPo: Some rank-and-file House Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated with Speaker Mike Johnson’s leadership ahead of tough midterm elections next year.

Congress

• Rep. Sarah McBride, D-Del., successfully lobbied the handful of House Republicans who voted against the GOP-led House bill criminalizing gender care for transgender minors. — NOTUS
• Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., lifted her hold on President Trump’s nominee to lead the Coast Guard after DHS Secretary Kristi Noem agreed to reverse a policy change that downgraded swastikas and nooses to “potentially divisive” symbols.

Executive Orders

• President Trump signed executive orders to reschedule cannabis; give federal workers Christmas Eve and the day after Christmas off; and revamp the government’s space projects to double down on a return to the Moon.

Outside the Beltway

• A man suspected in the fatal mass shooting at Brown University this week and an additional killing at MIT was