Good morning. The next 12 months could bring much-needed clarity on Canada’s economic future, the real impact of AI and more. After years of uncertainty, 2026 may finally bring some resolution to these tensions – or at least fewer moving targets.

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Canadian businesses found more trading partners around the world after U.S. President Donald Trump opened up a trade war, but it will be a long time before the country’s economic outlook isn’t tied directly to the wealth and whims of the United States.

Still, the upcoming renewal of the free-trade agreement between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico should bring some degree of clarity. In fact, after more than a year of writing the word “uncertainty” like it was my job (Ed note: it was your job, dummy), we might be facing a period defined by more clarity in general. For your consideration:

1. USMCA negotiations

The beginning of July will mark the formal review period of the United-States-Mexico-Canada Agreement – a provision The Globe’s editorial board called a “ticking time-bomb” that Ottawa and Mexico City conceded to Washington in the 2017 renegotiation of NAFTA.

This renewal is grounded in formality and represents a chance for the U.S. to enforce a hard-won measure that is without precedent in modern free-trade agreements. If no agreement emerges in July, the deal could be revisited each year until the USMCA expires in 2036. That would be ... unfun.

But! But: There are signs the negotiations are heading toward some kind of deal, which would bring a level of certainty – even if it’s over how tariffs will apply as part of a years-long agreement. And even if it’s renamed “The Big Beautiful Handsome President’s America First Act.”

2. We see thee (we?) rise

A common theme in economic forecasts this year centred around that trade negotiation, and how it’s shading an otherwise sunny outlook.

Canada’s economy proved mostly resilient in the face of deadlines, tariffs and threats of tariffs. For many Canadians, the dire warnings that opened 2025 were muted by the percentage of exports to the U.S. covered by exemptions under the current free trade deal.

The country’s unemployment rate, at 6.5 per cent in November, has been falling over the past three months, the pace of inflation has steadied around the Bank of Canada’s target and many analysts see more potential for significant growth in Canada’s economy in the second half of 2026.

And there’s reason for “cautious optimism” heading into 2026, RBC economists wrote in a report last week: Lower lending rates winding through the economy; global growth supporting commodity prices; significant spending in the federal budget; and heightened Canadian business investment. Replacing aging equipment “can only be delayed so long,” they wrote.

All of that is assuming, of course, that Trump doesn’t do anything entirely unexpected.

3. How high will markets go?

If ever there was a year that showed markets are a poor proxy for the real economy, 2025 was it. Trade tensions, war, labour shocks and inflation barely registered across the sparkling alternate universe of stocks, bonds and precious metals.

Even by “downing a few cocktails, throwing darts at a map of the world and then buying stocks wherever they landed,” Ian McGugan wrote, “chances are you would have done magnificently.”

Gold, for reasons no one seems to understand, soared more than 60 per cent. For those same mystical reasons, the metal is expected to continue to shine in 2026.

And while big-spending tech companies haven’t quite assuaged investor worries over where it is, exactly, those trillions of dollars are going, the FOMO on possible tech-driven generational change (and wealth) is a powerful condition.

AI mania helped fuel North American markets this year, but it was the same story in Europe, China and Japan. And next year, as the world continues to adapt to a rewired system of trade and the West wobbles through its support of Ukraine four years after Russia’s invasion, Wall Street’s largest investment firms are forecasting another double-digit gain for the benchmark S&P 500 in 2026.

4. An AI reckoning

The debate over whether we are experiencing an A