Flagship

US backs off Iran strike threat

The immediate risk of a US strike against Iran appeared to wane, which, alongside the suppression of nationwide protests, suggested that the immediate threat to the regime in Tehran had faded. Officials advised US President Donald Trump that an attack would be unlikely to topple the government, The Wall Street Journal reported, while Israel and Arab governments pressed him not to follow through on his threat of dire consequences against Iran over its crackdown. Sparse information from behind Iran’s internet blackout suggests “a violent, far-reaching response,” the Financial Times said, with thousands estimated killed. But Iranian opposition is divided, The Washington Post noted, with a disparate grouping of leftists, monarchists, and republicans holding differing views and lacking a clear leader.

Venezuela eases oil investment laws

Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodríguez said she would reform the country’s hydrocarbon laws to ease foreign investment, in a bid to boost its moribund oil industry. Since ousting former leader Nicolás Maduro, US President Donald Trump has pushed international energy companies to invest in Venezuela, predicting that its oil industry would be “up and running” within 18 months. However, experts have warned that conditions there — including the risk of further violence — may discourage investments, suggesting that it could be years before new projects become productive. Nonetheless, some firms see an opportunity: Emirati oil giant ADNOC is considering investing in gas projects in the country, which holds some of the world’s largest reserves, Bloomberg reported.

Wind farms see legal wins in US

The US renewables industry has been buoyed by legal wins over the White House, as well as growing investment. The Trump administration had sought to stop the construction of near-completed wind farms by the renewables giants Ørsted and Equinor. But separate courts ruled this week that building could continue, driving the firms’ stock prices up and sending a signal to other projects also blocked by the administration. Despite Washington’s opposition to renewable energy, investors are bullish: The solar-farm operator CleanCapital announced a $300 million financing package, Semafor reported, and the private equity giant Brookfield said in a new paper that renewables are “the cheapest, fastest and most scalable” way of generating electricity. It plans to invest $30 billion in renewables projects.

China targets solar alliance

Chinese authorities cracked down on efforts by solar companies to work together to end a brutal price war. Officials have warned against “involution” — competition that is ultimately negative for an economy — in the solar-panel manufacturing sector. Chinese industry heavyweights joined forces last year, forming an investment fund that would acquire and close loss-making companies, as well as coordinating on production cuts. But China’s market regulator this week said it had received multiple complaints that major companies were using the campaign to fix prices and were thus violating antitrust laws, a ruling that analysts at the China-focused research firm Trivium characterized as “an enormous setback for the industry’s best shot at meaningful rebalancing.”

US, Taiwan in major trade deal

The US and Taiwan finalized a trade deal that will see Washington cap tariffs on Taiwanese imports, a boost to Taipei’s crucial semiconductor sector, in return for a $250 billion investment to expand chipmaking on American soil. The announcement — which comes a month after the two agreed their biggest-ever arms deal — highlights deepening relations: Taipei has at times expressed worry, since President Donald Trump returned to office, over the steadfastness of US backing in the face of growing pressure from China on Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province. The trade deal also cements Taiwan’s central role in global chipmaking, a day after semiconductor behemoth TSMC pledged to spend as much as $56 billion on strengthening its manufacturing capacity.

Countries seek to diversify trade

Progress towards new global trade agreements underlined how countries globally are looking to diversify their economic relationships in response to Washington’s protectionism. Kenya, subject to a 10% US levy, signed a preliminary agreement with China that would give 98% of its exports duty-free access to the Chinese market, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, the prime minister of Canada — which sends three-quarters of its exports to the US — is in Beijing seeking to boost bilateral trade. The European Union and India have also made progress toward a trade agreement, with a Le Monde columnist saying both sides were “discovering new geostrategic affinities” amid a global realignment in the face of hostility from Washington.

Germany reports first growth since 2022

Germany’s economy grew 0.2% last year, the first time it has shown annual growth since 2022. Europe’s largest economy has struggled with declines in its vital manufacturing sector; carmakers in particular have suffered in the face of Chinese competition and US tariffs, while a strong euro has hit exports. Chancellor Friedrich Merz loosened debt laws this year, freeing up cash to boost investment in infrastructure and defense; economists hope the spending spree will result in faster growth this year, but the Bundesbank forecast only a slow recovery. Europe’s giants have floundered lately — France is also in the economic doldrums — while its traditionally weaker periphery countries, such as Greece, Portugal, and Spain, are faring better.

Sarah Rogers, the State Department’s under secretary of state for public diplomacy, joins Mixed Signals for a wide-ranging conversation about free speech, tech regulation, and why she’s been testing the patience of some European governments. Max and Ben press her on confronting Europe over X, the Digital Services Act, and online speech — including accusations that she’s carrying water for Elon Musk and the far right. Rogers traces her worldview back to the early internet, Gawker comment sections, and First Amendment litigation, and explains why she sees today’s speech rules as potentially dangerous.

Listen to the latest Mixed Signals now.

UK Conservatives in freefall

A prominent Conservative defected to Britain’s upstart Reform UK party, the most significant sign of fracturing in one of the world’s oldest and most consistently successful political parties — and of the European center-right. The Tories have been in government for most of the time since their formal founding in 1834, changing with the times to win power. But the party was badly beaten in 2024, is facing a growing challenge from the anti-immigrant Reform, and may be in terminal decline. Center-right parties elsewhere in Europe are struggling as populists surge: France’s National Rally is climbing in the polls, and Alternative for Germany may be a big winner in upcoming German state elections.