Good morning. In the aftermath of the Great Greenland Crisis of last week, Canada and its NATO allies are facing tough math over how they would protect the West without its largest supporter. That’s in focus today – plus, how Ottawa is acting on high food prices.

Mining: Allied Gold Corp. has agreed to be acquired by China’s Zijin Gold International Co. in a $5.5-billion deal that will test Ottawa’s appetite for Chinese investment in the mining sector.

Trade: Canada spoke with a Trump administration official to reassure the U.S. that a free-trade deal with Beijing is not in the works.

Defence: The Business Development Bank of Canada is beginning to fulfill its promise to help Canadian companies tap into Ottawa’s defence spending boom, starting with two investments into startups advancing rocket and semiconductor technology at home.

Donald Trump’s years of complaining that allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization were not spending enough on defending the West had at least one unintended consequence: Those countries are now putting themselves in a better position to protect themselves without the United States. (If not from it.)

Last spring, Canada joined NATO allies in committing to a massive hike to military spending. The new target of 5 per cent of each member’s gross domestic product – up from 2 per cent, a level Canada has failed to reach for years – was designed to keep Trump from quitting the Western alliance, and to address the threat of Russian expansionism.

It worked, for a while. Trump hailed the deal and took pleasure in being referred to as “daddy ” by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. But his escalating threats over Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, snapped leaders back to reality. He eventually backed off the idea of military action, and then dropped the threat of tariffs on countries who came to the territory’s aid. There was a brief sense of calm over a crisis averted, but the episode sent leaders home with doubts over the future of NATO.

Waking up

The signs of NATO’s tenuous future have been flashing for years, tracing back to Trump’s first term and articulated in his National Security Strategy, which the White House published in December.

The publication, which outlined his plan to “secure the hemisphere” and heaped criticism on international organizations that Trump views as unnecessary and wasteful to American taxpayers, was followed a month later by the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his country’s oil industry.

Days later at the Davos summit, NATO leaders found themselves responding to potential military action from its key architect and most important financial supporter. If it hadn’t been clear already that a U.S.-less strategy to protect the West would be needed, it sure was now.

Leaders across Europe are now debating a rush of military spending, selling off U.S. assets, and a host of extreme measures that could tilt countries into severe economic hardship.

In remarks to the European Parliament yesterday, Rutte told lawmakers to “keep on dreaming” if they think they can defend their countries without the U.S. “Europe is now building its defence industry … but it cannot at the moment provide nearly enough of what Ukraine needs to defend itself today and to deter tomorrow.”

It’s doubtful, in light of how 2026 has already played out, that NATO countries will hit the brakes on their 5-per-cent target, even if Rutte is right. And while the Greenland fight has cooled, its enduring unease underscores the most acute threat to Canada’s sovereignty.

Speeding up

No one expects U.S. troops to march on Miramichi (even if the military is modelling hypothetical invasions), but the long-neglected Far North is exactly where doubts about Canada’s ability to defend its own territory could invite unwanted American involvement.

The federal budget in November featured a major boost in spending to expand Arctic and maritime surveillance as rival powers, including Russia and China, look to the North – which is warming because of climate change – for more resources and a greater strategic presence in the region.

The plan also included a separate $1-billion Arctic Infrastructure Fund to pay for new airports, seaports and all-season roads in the North that would have dual-use applications for both civilians and the military.

What began as a strategy to fend off rivals like China and Russia has become a “prove‑it” moment for Ottawa, which now risks losing Washington’s confidence in its ability to secure the Arctic without U.S. intervention.

The government didn’t share in the budget how close its spending plans brought the country to NATO’s new commitment. But signs are emerging that Canada’s defence industry is shifting to the North.

Looking up

Yesterday, Canadian defence company Calian Group Ltd. announced it is leading a $100-million investment, alongside government and other industry members, to build a network of labs across the country where military and industry can work together on the technologies needed to stay connected while operating in harsh Arctic environments.

Securing the waters will require new ships, submarines and bases, “but all of this has to get connected together,” Patrick Houston, the company’s chief executive, told The Globe’s Pippa Norman. “There’s going to be thousands of new assets, sensors, drones and satellites, to monitor and secure that, and the point of this is trying to bring it all together,” he said.