Washington, DC

1. Fed’s purgatory
2. GOP immigration schism
3. Shutdown odds rise
4. Rubio’s Venezuela message
5. Tech breaks with Trump
6. Trump’s stakes
7. Tester’s election prediction

PDB: Omar attacked at town hall event

Fed expected to keep rates steady … Trump speaks on ‘Trump accounts’ … Meta, Microsoft, Tesla announce earnings

Inside the Fed’s personnel purgatory

The Federal Reserve’s most recent addition isn’t going anywhere, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller reports. Lawmakers last year confirmed President Donald Trump’s adviser Stephen Miran to a term that ends Saturday. But the now-governor can stay until the Senate greenlights his replacement, and Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., told Semafor Tuesday night he still plans to stop the Banking Committee from advancing any Fed nominees until the Justice Department drops its investigation into Chair Jerome Powell. “In reality, the only way I move on any Fed position is for this to be adjudicated — because otherwise, you’re really giving weight to the idea that the Fed is no longer independent,” Tillis said. He said he has not heard from the White House about his opposition: “I think my position is pretty clear, and I’m here because the DOJ put us here.”

The GOP’s immigration break with Trump

The breaks between the Trump administration and congressional Republicans over immigration enforcement are piling up in the wake of the killing of Alex Pretti in Minnesota, Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott report. Tillis and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, are calling for Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to go — a big change, considering they voted to confirm her a year ago. “It’s the president’s decision, but I think there’s got to be a level of accountability,” Murkowski said. Multiple Republicans are breaking with the administration’s descriptions of Pretti as a terrorist and the suggestion he shouldn’t have been armed. The scrutiny is only set to increase: Top immigration officials will appear before both chambers of Congress in February; Senate Homeland Security Chair Rand Paul, R-Ky., said “we’re going to find out” if he still has confidence in Noem.

Shutdown odds rise further

Senators are still far apart on a bipartisan immigration compromise that could stop government funding from partially lapsing Friday night. Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., told reporters Tuesday that Democrats are closing in on a “set of reforms” to add to appropriations legislation after Alex Pretti’s killing Saturday: “[We] can’t trust anything this administration promises,” Murphy said. But Republicans fear they may not have the votes to pass a tweaked spending bill in the House, which is out this week anyway. “If there are things the Democrats want … they ought to … see to what degree the administration may be able to to address that,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said. “I would prefer that there be a way that we keep the package together. [Otherwise] I think it becomes really complicated and, frankly, risky.”

— Eleanor Mueller and Burgess Everett

Rubio to defend Maduro operation

Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to defend the administration’s Venezuela actions during public testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee later today, according to prepared remarks seen by Semafor. The crux of Rubio’s message: The capture of Nicolás Maduro “was an operation to aid law enforcement.” His appearance comes as the administration continues to face questions about next steps in Venezuela. Lawmakers will likely ask about the decision to hold Venezuelan oil proceeds in Qatar, and Rubio will be expected to address concerns about allowing interim Venezuelan president Delcy Rodríguez to head up the country. On Rodríguez, Rubio plans to emphasize that the Trump administration believes “her own self-interest aligns with advancing our key objectives.” He’ll also deliver a warning: Trump is “prepared to use force to ensure maximum cooperation if other methods fail.”

— Shelby Talcott

Tech CEOs start to break with Trump

Technology executives have spent much of the past year cozying up to Trump, but the killings in Minneapolis are testing that support. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman notably broke his silence on the immigration crackdown, telling employees in an internal Slack message, per The New York Times: “What’s happening with ICE is going too far.” He echoed Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, no stranger to confrontation with the White House, who called the situation a “horror” this week. Apple’s Tim Cook — one of the business leaders who attended a screening of Amazon’s Melania Trump biopic at the White House the day federal officers shot Pretti — told employees he’d had a “good conversation” with Trump and urged “deescalation,” Bloomberg reported. A growing cadre of Silicon Valley leaders is speaking up, the Times reported, harkening back to some of the clashes of Trump’s first term.

Trump, the ultimate activist investor

Top corporate advisers paid for fending off hostile takeover attempts and vocal activist investors are now getting ready to contain America’s most potent investor — Trump, Semafor’s Rohan Goswami writes. The Trump administration’s $1.6 billion investment in an American rare-earths miner, USA Rare Earth, is the latest case highlighting the need for CEO whisperers and takeover defense experts, who had already begun to include “the president wants to own a bit of us” in their quarterly “what-if” scenario planning, one adviser told Semafor. The strategy is the same whether companies are trying to fend off a federal investment or court one, and it rests on an aggressive DC ground game. Avoidance is not a strategy, said Jack Kelleher, managing director at activist-defense specialist Collected Strategies. “It’s always clear who got caught flat-footed,” he said.

Tester sees blue wave forming

Former Montana Sen. Jon Tester sees the potential for a massive blue wave this fall, although it won’t include him, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports in a new video interview dropping this morning. The longtime Democratic senator said that on Republicans’ current political trajectory, the midterms might make the 2006 wave Tester rode into office look like a blue ripple. “It has the potential of being 1932 all over again,” Tester said. “Because people are starting to realize that this ain’t working.” So why doesn’t Tester want to twin with former Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and potentially ride that wave? “I spent 18 years there; it was a good 18 years, I worked my ass off,” Tester said. “My generation has screwed this country up enough, quite frankly. It’s time for a new generation to come in and fill some of these seats.”

Blindspot: Fires and symphonies

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: President Trump signed an executive order seeking to speed up LA County’s wildfire recovery.

What the Right isn’t reading: Composer Philip Glass canceled plans for an upcoming symphony performance at the Kennedy Center, protesting Trump’s control of it.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Some Republicans are acknowledging the need for reforms to how immigration enforcement operations are conducted, which could help grease the wheels of conversations to avert a shutdown. “We’re at a situation where this just isn’t safe,” said Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo.

Playbook: Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico told EU leaders last week he was concerned about President Trump’s “psychological state” after a recent meeting with the US president.

Axios: The Minnesota controversy has triggered a blame game in the Trump administration over who is responsible for misleading rhetoric about Alex Pretti, with White House officials pointing the finger at Customs and Border Protection and others zeroing in on Trump adviser Stephen Miller.

WaPo: Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz implored House Democrats to visit his state during a meeting earlier this week, amid the uproar over the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown.

White House

• President Trump said Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem would not step down from her post amid criticism over the Trump administration’s handling of immigration enforcement in Minnesota.

Congress

• A man sprayed Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., with an unknown substance during a town hall; she was unhurt and finished the event.
• Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla., is the latest House Republican to announce his retirement.

Outside the Beltway

• A circuit court judge ruled against Virginia Democrats’ effort to force through an amendment allowing state lawmakers to redraw maps before the midterms.

Inside the Beltway

• The deadly 2025 midair crash near DC came after years of warnings about unsafe helicopter traffic, the NTSB said Tuesday.