Washington, DC

1. GOP races to avert shutdown
2. Dems’ new ICE response
3. Minnesota furor continues
4. New Venezuela probe
5. Powell-Trump agreement
6. Renewed Iran threats
7. GOP subsidies offer

PDB: FBI raids Georgia election office

Apple releases earnings … EU foreign ministers meet on Ukraine … Trumps attend Melania screening

Shutdown standoff comes to a head

The Senate will vote on the government spending package today, which Democrats are vowing to block if it includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security. But White House officials say they’ll offer some flexibility on immigration enforcement if that leads to passage of the spending bill before the end of the week and avoids a shutdown, Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott report, with The New York Times reporting late Wednesday that President Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer appear to be nearing a possible agreement. Democrats’ immigration policy demands include new requirements for warrants and body cameras and a ban on officers wearing masks, but they want a law, not a handshake. And Democrats are not backing off their central ask: splitting up the spending bill. GOP leaders haven’t ruled it out. “We are looking at all options,” said Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins, R-Maine.

Merkley bill targets ICE rights abuses

Oregon Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley wants to allow people to sue over immigration enforcement officers’ infringement of their constitutional rights, according to a copy of his new bill shared with Semafor. The bill would allow people who are deprived of “rights, privileges, or immunities” by ICE or CBP to sue the federal government, with the funds paid out of last year’s tax cuts law, which included billions for immigration enforcement. It’ll be a nonstarter for the Republicans, but demonstrates the scale of change Democrats now believe is needed. “ICE and CBP must face consequences if their agents wrongfully violate citizens’ rights to protest and free speech, search people’s homes without a warrant, or deny due process,” Merkley said. Rep. Andrea Salinas, D-Ore., is leading the House version and said it “deters illegal enforcement practices and prevents ICE and CBP from operating with impunity.”

— Burgess Everett

Trump yet to quash Minnesota furor

Trump’s softening of his tone on Minnesota has yet to quell the furor around the immigration crackdown. The issue is fueling the government funding impasse, and ICE has even become taboo internationally. “ICE’s image is terrible,” Milan’s mayor told The Washington Post, as the Italian city grappled with headlines about agents deploying to help with security during the Winter Olympics. Democrats, meanwhile, are preparing to lean into immigration on the campaign trail, as Trump faces headwinds on a topic usually seen as a strength for him. “Our candidates and our frontliners aren’t afraid to talk about the work that they think needs to happen and talk directly with their constituents about this,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., the chair of the House campaign arm. Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar and his liaison in Minneapolis, will hold a press conference this morning.

— Morgan Chalfant and Eleanor Mueller

Top Dem probes oil firms over Venezuela

The top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, California Rep. Robert Garcia, is asking oil firms for more information following the Trump administration’s initial sale of Venezuelan crude, which Semafor first reported. “The Committee seeks answers about the Trump Administration’s intentions” as well as “any agreements your companies have made,” Garcia wrote in a letter, first shared with Semafor, to the CEOs of Vitol and Trafigura. The Trump administration, which issued both traders special licenses to sell the oil before their peers, has since doubled down on its handling of the resource. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday that the US plans to remain in control of the proceeds for the time being — and will eventually move cash from a Qatari bank account to “a US Treasury blocked account here in the US.”

— Eleanor Mueller and Shelby Talcott

Powell, Trump find rare common ground

Trump and the Federal Reserve chair he wants to replace have managed to agree on one thing: The US economy is better than Americans think it is. The president lamented again Wednesday that “I don’t think people get… the economic boom that’s taking place.” A few hours later, Jerome Powell told reporters “the economy has once again surprised us with its strength” after policymakers opted to leave interest rates alone. “The consumer is filling out surveys that sound really negative — and then spending,” Powell said. “There’s been a disconnect for some time.” Don’t expect Democrats to chime in: DelBene, the chair of the House campaign arm, said the same day that “when [Republicans] talk about [how] the economy’s strong, they’re not connecting with the lived experience that people are feeling on the ground.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Trump’s on-again, off-again Iran threats

The prospect of US strikes on Iran seems to be rising again. Trump is pressuring Tehran to quickly come to the table on a nuclear deal or risk an attack “far worse” than last June’s strikes on nuclear sites. The warning came as the US deployed more military assets to the region, raising fears among Gulf countries about a possible attack. Saudi Arabia and the UAE signaled to Tehran this week that they would not allow airspace to be used for strikes on Iran. The markets are noticing, too: Trump’s threat sent oil prices to a four-month high on Wednesday. He’s flirted with taking action against Iran for weeks as Tehran cracked down on anti-government protests, only to back off. “I don’t think anyone can give you a simple answer as to what happens next in Iran,” Rubio told Congress.

Moreno’s final health care offer to Dems

Senate Democrats have a final Republican offer to entertain on expired Obamacare subsidies, Semafor’s Burgess Everett scooped. Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, pitched Democrats on a plan to revive expired health care subsidies on Wednesday, offering a one-year extension of enhanced premium tax credits that expired at the end of 2025 with an option to use Health Savings Accounts after 2026, according to a copy of the proposal shared first with Semafor. It would also bar “individuals not lawfully present” in the US from receiving the benefits, impose a minimum $5 monthly insurance payment, and cap subsidies at 700% of the federal poverty level. Moreno made clear that his offer does not represent the Senate GOP’s position but rather the “maximum” that his party could support. He said if Democrats say “this is impossible, there’s no way we can sell that,” then “it’s over.”

Blindspot: Flattery and threats

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: A Republican Georgia state representative who is running to be the state’s next lieutenant governor introduced legislation to rename Sawnee Mountain after President Trump.

What the Right isn’t reading: The number of threats investigated by Capitol Hill police last year grew by more than 50% from the year prior. 

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Rep. Robin Kelly, D-Ill., will launch a $2 million TV ad campaign next week ahead of the Democratic primary for Illinois’ open Senate seat in March.

Playbook: New polling from the Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC is the latest to show voters’ disenchantment with the Trump administration’s immigration agenda.

Axios: The Trump administration will host senior defense and intelligence officials from Israel and Saudi Arabia for talks on Iran this week, as the US mulls military strikes.

WaPo: “Democrats are ready to avert a shutdown. We have 5 bills we all agree on — about 95 percent of the remaining budget — it is ready to go,” Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., the top Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, said.

White House

• Trump aide Stephen Miller said officers “may not have been following” protocol when they killed Alex Pretti. — CNN

Congress

• Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Mich., who chairs the House select committee on China, raised concerns about Ford’s expanded partnership with Chinese battery manufacturer CATL in a letter to the company. — FT

Outside the Beltway

• The FBI raided an election office in Fulton County, Georgia, long the site of conspiracy theories, in search of records related to former President Joe Biden’s 2020 election win. (ProPublica obtained the warrant.)
• New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is putting pressure on the state’s Democratic governor to raise taxes on the wealthy in order to generate funds to address the city’s fiscal “crisis” he blames on predecessor Eric Adams.
• Alex Pretti was involved in a scuffle with federal agents earlier in the month before he was killed.

Inside the Beltway

• The Trump administration may sell the Old Post Office, previously the home of a Trump hotel. — WaPo
• Another top Kennedy Center official resigned.