What matters in U.S. and global markets today

Global news you can trust.

Download the Reuters App.

 

Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets 

Global markets are digesting a torrent of new information on the earnings, currency and political fronts – yet they are holding up reasonably well. The S&P 500 eclipsed 7,000 points briefly on Wednesday and looks like it might do so again.

The Federal Reserve meeting yesterday – and the decision to leave rates unchanged – did nothing to disturb the existing market view. Chair Jerome Powell sidestepped most of the edgy questions about Fed independence. But now all eyes look to the oil market as U.S. tensions with Iran heat up.

I’ll get into all that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on how a stronger euro could turn from a dream into a nightmare for Europe.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

 
 

Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more U.S. market news, click here. Please send any feedback to morningbid@thomsonreuters.com.

 

Today's Market Minute

  • Investors responded to Big Tech earnings this week with a stark warning: they will forgive record spending that brings solid growth, but will punish companies otherwise.
  • U.S. chipmaker Nvidia helped China's DeepSeek hone AI models that were later used by the Chinese military, the chairman of a U.S. House of Representatives committee said in a letter seen by Reuters.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters.
  • If the "Sell America" trade heats up, who is most likely to stoke the flames? ROI Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever breaks it down.
  • Europe’s vast natural gas storage network is set to exit winter at its lowest level in years, yet market prices indicate complacency, writes ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso.
 

Mixed megacaps and Tehran tensions

The varying fortunes of U.S. tech giants amid their AI spending splurge became apparent on Wednesday as the megacap earnings releases got underway.

While Meta’s stock surged as much as 10% overnight on plans for a whopping 73% increase in capital spending this year, Microsoft fell back more than 6% on disappointing results from its cloud computing business.

Tesla was up 2% as it switched focus from ebbing EV sales to AI spending and robotaxis. Apple reports later on Thursday.

As expected, the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged on Wednesday, with Chair Jerome Powell citing a “clearly improving” economic outlook and sounding relaxed about labor market strains and above-target inflation. He indicated that any renewed easing likely wouldn’t come until mid-year, lobbing the ball into his successor’s court as he approaches the end of his term as chair in May.

Powell remained tight-lipped with reporters when asked about his future and the criminal probe launched by the Trump administration.

Long-term Treasury yields continue to nudge higher, however, with attention turning to rising oil prices. Crude benchmarks rose more than 1% on Thursday on fresh U.S.-Iran military tensions. President Trump on Wednesday threatened Iran with a “far worse” attack if it does not make a deal on nuclear weapons, prompting a firm response from Tehran, which said it would retaliate “like never before” to any U.S. action.

Trump is reportedly weighing options for targeted strikes against Iranian leaders and security forces to inspire renewed protests – with the objective, according to two U.S. sources, of creating conditions for “regime change”. One source noted that Trump has not yet made a final decision on military action.

Meantime, precious metals continued their stratospheric rise on Thursday, with gold nearing $5,600 per ounce and silver touching $120 per ounce. Gold prices have risen over $1,000 so far in January.

Both oil and gold are also supported by this week's plunge in the dollar across the world, with the greenback ebbing again on Thursday despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's restatement of the U.S. government's slightly ambiguous “strong dollar” policy yesterday.

 

Europe’s euro worry a mirror of US dollar dilemma?

Europe wants to embrace a beefed-up role for the euro in world finance but gets anxious when that success pushes the currency higher. If the dollar is indeed shaping up for another protracted slide, the bloc faces the flipside of a dilemma Washington is trying to shake off.

As the dollar swooned around the world this week, the pivotal transatlantic exchange rate briefly soared above $1.20 per euro for the first time in four years. The move rang alarm bells again at the European Central Bank and in European industry, but it also flattered euro-based investment portfolios and potentially drew in much-needed ‌foreign and domestic capital.

 

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Read the full column