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January 30, 2026 
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Hi, movie fans!
We’re now in Phase 2 of awards season, when the campaigning for an Oscar gets underway in earnest. Our expert, Kyle Buchanan, a.k.a. The Projectionist, took a hard look at the best actor field, probably the most competitive of the races this year thanks to a roster of incredibly strong contenders. He found that each nominee has a path to the statuette even as they all face significant obstacles.
That begins with Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”), who is considered the front-runner mainly because he’s won televised awards like the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice. His emotional final scene in the film also helps his case. But as Buchanan has written, the academy is reluctant to vote for young actors, and there may be a feeling that Chalamet, 30, will have more award-worthy performances in his future.
In Buchanan’s view, that reluctance could clear the way for Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”), Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”) or Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), who are all in their 40s or 50s. But each must surmount a hurdle: With Hawke, the fact that his film wasn’t nominated for best picture doesn’t bode well. Moura, who won a Globe, isn’t up for another significant honor until the Oscars. And the academy has taken DiCaprio for granted in recent years.
What about Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”)? Buchanan notes that he’s been nominated a lot for the performance (as twins) but hasn’t picked up significant wins. Still, the fact that “Sinners” made such a strong showing in the nominations (16!) may help him. Keep your eye on these contenders.
Elsewhere in awards season, my colleague Esther Zuckerman took a look at an Oscars anomaly: how a nearly 10-year-old song qualified for a nomination. It turns out to be by the book, but the story has some interesting twists.
Lastly, the nominations for the BAFTAs, roughly the British equivalent of the Oscars, were released this week. “One Battle After Another” led the list, with 14 nominations, followed by “Sinners” at 13. These honors are worth paying attention to because British voters make up a strong bloc of the Hollywood academy.
I can’t wait to see what happens next!
