Washington, DC

1. Immigration talks falter
2. GOP’s Fed divide
3. US-Iran talks in Oman
4. Little Ukraine progress
5. Shutdown aviation deal
6. Brad Karp’s downfall

PDB: Trump to strike Argentine beef deal

Trump signs executive orders … U Michigan releases consumer sentiment survey … Bitcoin hits lowest level since start of Trump’s second term

‘Team Normal’ struggles in Congress

Congress is lurching from one intractable shutdown fight to another, as talks to revive Affordable Care Act subsidies are shelved and replaced by equally difficult negotiations on immigration enforcement, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. Alabama GOP Sen. Katie Britt’s dismissal of Democratic asks as “ridiculous” was enough to prompt a text from centrist Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, asking her: “What is it you think is ridiculous?” Britt responded that Democrats took too long to lay out their demands and won’t talk to her yet. The Department of Homeland Security shutdown deadline arrives in just a week. It’s all a sign of the chamber’s collaborative muscles atrophying on big issues. Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., said the Senate “once could solve the biggest problems facing Americans, and right now is so divided by politics that Team Normal can’t get together and figure things out.”

Fed blockade splits GOP

A pledge by Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., to block Trump’s Federal Reserve nominees until the Justice Department drops its investigation into Chair Jerome Powell is drawing friendly fire. Some GOP senators, like Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana, have signaled support. Others are expressing frustration. It’s “terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible,” Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, told Semafor. Trump’s pick to succeed Powell, former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh, is “incredibly qualified,” Moreno added. “Let’s not play politics, let’s just get him confirmed.” Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., told Semafor that while “Tillis and I do agree” Powell likely didn’t commit a crime, “where we disagree is: I don’t think you hold Warsh’s nomination hostage over that.” A spokesperson for Tillis responded that “Tillis believes Kevin Warsh is a great pick to be Fed Chair and will support him once the investigation into Chair Powell is resolved.”

Skepticism high as US, Iran hold talks

Fresh off Ukraine war talks, US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner are sitting down today in Oman with Iranian officials to negotiate on Iran’s nuclear program. While there’s hope for a deal, there’s also plenty of skepticism. “I’m not sure you can reach a deal with these guys, but we’re going to try and find out,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week. The high-stakes meeting takes place as tensions rise between Washington and Tehran and the Trump administration continues to beef up military assets in the region. US officials also hope the talks will expand to other topics, like human rights violations and the country’s backing of proxy groups: Rubio warned that “in order for talks to lead to something meaningful,” they’ll have to delve into some of those issues.

— Shelby Talcott

Ukraine talks yield little progress

The Trump administration appears no closer to resolving the sticking points holding up any deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, despite declarations of progress and a few shifts along the margins of a meeting in Abu Dhabi. Russia and Ukraine agreed to swap hundreds of prisoners, while Washington and Moscow moved to resume high-level military contacts that were severed in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The dialogue could “bring about good things, even while the political side might be throwing bricks at each other,” a former Pentagon official told the Financial Times. But he cautioned that the move “brings Russia back into the family of nations, if you will, by having some normalcy,” despite the ongoing war. And as the last remaining arms control pact between the US and Russia expired, Trump called for a “new, improved, and modernized” treaty.

Cruz says air safety bill could take off

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, was quietly threatening to slow the funding agreement last week over one of his top priorities — but dropped his opposition after talking with House Speaker Mike Johnson, according to people familiar with the conversation. Cruz spoke directly last week to the speaker about the ROTOR Act — an aviation safety response to the horrific crash at DCA last year — and now believes it will become law soon. “I am confident that the House will take up and pass the ROTOR Act and put it on the president’s desk for signature,” Cruz said. The Senate passed the air safety bill in December, but it’s faced some pushback in the House. There, Transportation Committee Chair Sam Graves, R-Mo., isn’t fully sold on the bill, which leaves work to do; House leaders try not to circumvent committee chairs.

— Burgess Everett

Inside the downfall of Paul Weiss’ chair

The Epstein files controversy claimed its first real scalp in the US business community with the downfall of Paul Weiss chair Brad Karp. Karp was forced to resign from his leadership position this week after a group of partners quietly agreed to replace him, The Wall Street Journal reported in an inside account of his ouster. His downfall isn’t really a story about Epstein, Semafor’s Liz Hoffman writes, but about “overexposure to private equity.” Karp became acquainted with the convicted sex offender through legal work for the co-founder of Apollo Global Management — an Epstein friend — and that work helped Karp take Paul Weiss from a niche New York litigation shop to a dealmaking juggernaut. The Epstein files continue to make waves on Capitol Hill, where Senate Democrats unsuccessfully sought legal action to force their full release as required by law.

Debatable: ICE warrants

As Senate Democrats negotiate with the White House over a possible deal on immigration enforcement, their demand on warrants is a major point of contention with Republicans, Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant writes. Democrats want to see the administration lean more heavily on the use of judicial warrants, which require signoff by a judge, in certain situations. Right now, enforcement agents are often using administrative warrants, or internal documents signed by immigration officers that authorize specific arrests but not searches. But the Associated Press reported on internal guidance telling ICE officers they can enter a person’s residence with only an administrative warrant. Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., said a dramatic shift in the use of administrative warrants would “handcuff” ICE. But Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., argued that’s needed: “We need to hamstring ICE. They’re running around shooting people.”

When now-President Donald Trump decided to put on an apron and serve customers at a McDonald’s drive-thru on the 2024 campaign trail, it put Tariq Hassan, then McDonald’s chief marketer, in a tight spot. On this week’s Mixed Signals, Ben and Max sit down with the former Golden Arches CMO to discuss the Trump episode, why he thinks ad makers should engage with journalists, and what goes into a good celebrity Super Bowl ad.

Listen to the latest Mixed Signals now.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., plans to pressure House Speaker Mike Johnson to attach the SAVE America Act to a reauthorization of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, potentially complicating the latter’s passage.

Playbook: President Trump’s absence from both the Winter Olympics and the Super Bowl is striking given his omnipresence at cultural events last year.

Axios: With private polls painting a grim picture for Republicans in the midterms, GOP strategists now see a real possibility of their party losing the Senate.

WaPo: Maine Democratic gubernatorial candidate Nirav Shah says his candidacy has gained traction in part because of his openness around mistakes made while overseeing the state’s response to Covid-19 as the head of Maine’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

White House

• President Trump said he won’t fire Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.
• Trump said he wants Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to support renaming Washington-Dulles Airport and Penn Station after him, in exchange for infrastructure funding. — Punchbowl

Congress

• Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., declined to sit for a voluntary interview as part of a Justice Department probe into a video she participated in urging US military members to refuse “illegal orders.” — AP

Inside the Beltway

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio is no longer the acting archivist of the US.

Campaigns

• Rep. Tom Malinowski is neck-and-neck with progressive challenger Analilia Mejía in the Democratic primary race for the House seat vacated by New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill.

Business

• The World Economic Forum is investigating its CEO, Børge Brende, over his ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Economy