Good evening. Tonight we’ll take stock of growing Republican fissures and what they could mean for the party come November.
Pushback to ICE facilities surfaces even in red areas
One of the biggest story lines we’re following this year is whether President Trump maintains his iron grip on the Republican Party. My read is that two things can be true. Trump remains the party’s dominant figure — but signs of fissures on the right, often fueled by the administration’s actions, keep stacking up. Even if those fractures don’t meaningfully undermine Trump’s standing with Republicans, they could certainly threaten his party. Over the weekend, my colleague Ana Ley wrote about how a federal plan for a migrant detention facility in a Republican corner of New York set off a passionate bipartisan backlash. “Everywhere that this has happened has been kind of a real dumpster fire,” Steven Neuhaus, a Republican who is the Orange County executive, told Ana. “It’s not something that we want in this sleepy county.” The story highlighted a trend starting to unfold around the country during the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown: Efforts to convert warehouses into detention facilities are drawing pushback from unlikely corners, including some Republicans. “I strongly oppose DHS’s proposed plan to turn a warehouse in Byhalia, Mississippi, into an ICE detention center,” Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi wrote on social media last week, later suggesting that the Department of Homeland Security had agreed “to look elsewhere.” “This site was meant for economic development and job creation. We cannot suddenly flood Byhalia with an influx of up to 10,000 detainees.” Concerns about such facilities have been echoed by Republicans including the mayor of Oklahoma City and state legislators in Pennsylvania, as well as Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, a Democrat who often breaks with his party. Their reservations come amid mounting evidence that independents and some Republicans are increasingly uncomfortable with the tactics of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Polls released over the last week have shown that growing numbers of Republicans — now up to around 30 percent — think ICE tactics or efforts go too far. Beyond that simmering unease, the scenes of chaos in American streets have also threatened the traditional Republican advantage on immigration, some Republican strategists have told me — and that is something, they note, that the party cannot afford. Meantime, some Latino Republicans have also been warning that the gains Trump made with Latino voters in 2024 are at risk, or that Republicans could lose the midterms because of the administration’s immigration approach. (His tirades against Bad Bunny, the wildly popular Puerto Rican musician who performed at the Super Bowl, may not help either.) And the racist video clip of the Obamas that Trump posted last week prompted a rare display of Republican dissent directed at the president himself. The clip was ultimately removed. As my colleague Erica Green wrote, it was the latest example of how, occasionally, “Trump runs smack into whatever boundary remains and is forced to pull back.” So what does this all mean? It is far too soon to declare that Trump’s influence on the right is waning or to suggest Republicans are at some sort of breaking point with the president. How many times have you heard that over the last decade? The reality is, his approval rating among Republicans remains in the 80s in many polls. He and his allies are also likely to have enormous resources to shape midterm election contests. And while Democrats are united in their fierce opposition to Trump, they are hardly harmonious, especially as they head into their own divisive primary season. But Republicans begin this midterm election year at a disadvantage: The president from their party is unpopular, the other side is fired up, and midterms are often challenging for the party in the White House. In recent years, Republicans have also been less motivated to turn out when Trump is off the ballot. Against that backdrop, all of these smaller intraparty tensions could add up to a bigger enthusiasm problem come November.
QUOTE OF THE DAY “I can probably be more beneficial back in the state than I can here.”That’s Senator Tommy Tuberville, Republican of Alabama, telling my colleague Carl Hulse why he chose to run for governor of his state rather than seek re-election after just one term in the Senate. He joins three other senators who are running for governor in their states, a reflection of lawmakers’ deep frustrations and disillusionment with the Senate. Got a tip?
ONE NUMBER About 130 millionThat’s a preliminary estimate of how many people tuned in for the Super Bowl last night, according to my colleagues at DealBook, which could put it ahead of last year’s record 127.7 million viewers. One viewer was particularly vocal: President Trump. On Truth Social, he called the halftime show by Bad Bunny — a critic of ICE who is Puerto Rican and performs mostly in Spanish — “a slap in the face” to the U.S. and said it didn’t “represent our standards.”
2026 WATCH Your guide to the Los Angeles mayor’s raceThe Los Angeles mayor’s race ramped up this weekend. Most notable among the more than three dozen challengers to Mayor Karen Bass is Nithya Raman, a progressive City Council member who entered the race just hours before the filing deadline. What are the stakes? What’s next? My colleagues Shawn Hubler and Jill Cowan have answers. Taylor Robinson and Ama Sarpomaa contributed reporting. Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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