Washington, DC

1. Opaque Venezuela strategy
2. Alternative Powell probe?
3. Shutdown looms
4. Tariff rebellion
5. GOP indictment pushback
6. Trump’s housing opening
7. Airspace closure confusion

PDB: Gallup to stop tracking presidential approval ratings

Homan holds press conference in Minneapolis … Coinbase announces earnings … Suspect identified in Canada school shooting

Trump’s Venezuela approach gets murkier

Nearly six weeks after the Trump administration ousted Venezuela’s leader with plans to effectively run the country, there’s little clarity on how it’s doing that, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller and Shelby Talcott write. One month after Semafor reported that proceeds from the US’ initial $500 million sale of Venezuelan oil were being held in a Qatari account, there is no sign of a second successful sale, or indication of when future proceeds will shift to a US-based Treasury Department account. That lack of detail stands in contrast to the Trump administration’s organized communications around other global priorities, like Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the Gaza peace agreement. But it could be strategic: One person close to the administration said it may be trying to “avoid a ‘mission accomplished’ moment,” referring to then-President George W. Bush’s premature victory lap in Iraq after the toppling of Saddam Hussein.

Republicans float different Powell probe

In a closed-door meeting with Senate Republicans Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent agreed with lawmakers who suggested the Senate Banking Committee could investigate Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, instead of the Justice Department handling the probe, people in the room told Semafor. One, a lawmaker, said they interpreted the exchange as “testing the waters” to see if the arrangement could get Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., to lift his blockade on Fed nominees. “They’re trying to dangle this in front of Thom to see if he’ll accept it,” the lawmaker said. “Thom, he was poker-face.” Separately, others said it could be a good compromise: “What the president wants is an investigation,” and hopefully, “the Banking Committee will satisfy that desire for an investigation,” one GOP member of Congress said. But the first lawmaker was more skeptical: “I would be shocked if Thom accepted.” Tillis declined to comment.

Shutdown odds spike amid DHS standoff

The Senate will vote on keeping the Department of Homeland Security funded past Friday, but unless something drastic changes, the government looks to be headed into another partial shutdown. One Democratic senator told Semafor that Republicans currently “don’t have anywhere near the votes” to pass a short-term funding bill as negotiations on immigration enforcement changes stall. Tillis said he was “cautiously pessimistic.” Democrats say the Trump administration has not responded to their requests with specificity. “We’ve done everything by the book that we’re supposed to do. So whether or not there is a shutdown of DHS tomorrow, it’s totally dependent on whether or not Republicans are going to act in good faith,” said Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich. The Senate could even leave town tonight — members have plenty of trips scheduled. In the meantime, senators will grill immigration officials later this morning.

— Burgess Everett

House Republicans rebel on Canada tariffs

Trump’s trade agenda is more politically vulnerable after six House Republicans voted with Democrats on Wednesday to scrap his administration’s tariffs on Canada. The first-time move is mostly symbolic: Lawmakers would need two-thirds of the chamber to overrule Trump’s veto. Still, administration officials are rushing to defend Trump’s handling of the economy. “Trump was very disappointed that a few members of the House are in utter denial about the positive effects” of his policies, economic adviser Kevin Hassett told reporters. “We just saw one of the best jobs reports we’ve ever seen.” The Labor Department revealed that employers added 130,000 jobs in January — more than twice as many as expected. In less positive news, however, it also revised its 2025 data to show employers added just 181,000 jobs over the course of the year, rather than the 584,000 it previously reported.

— Eleanor Mueller

Senate GOP pans attempt to indict Dems

Senate Republicans don’t agree with the Trump administration’s attempt to indict six congressional Democrats over a video — even one that many Republicans think was ill-conceived and counterproductive, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. Republicans said they thought the failed effort to indict Sens. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., and four congressional Democrats over a video last year urging national security officers to disobey unlawful orders made for a weak case and poor precedent. Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., said that the video they made showed “terrible, terrible judgment, but I think trying to indict them for it was not a good idea.” And Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., said that “I would not have brought it were I the president.” Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, called the episode a “chilling” moment and “a petty and vindictive path against members of the other party.”

GOP skeptics play ball on housing plan

Free-market Republicans are wary of Trump’s proposal to stop institutional investors from buying single-family homes — but they’re signaling they’ll play ball if it means the president signs their own housing legislation. “Chances are, if that’s what it takes to get the other [housing] provisions, we’ll probably find a path for something” this year, one GOP member of Congress said after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent privately pitched senators on the policy Wednesday. “If I can get [other housing] provisions — that’s the trade-off I need to get this done — then maybe it’s worth it.” Unresolved details include how to define single-family homes and institutional investors: “It could stay at [owning] 100 [homes]; it could go to 500; it could go to 1,000,” the member said. Lawmakers are currently weighing how to merge overlapping House and Senate proposals after the lower chamber passed its measure overwhelmingly this week.

— Eleanor Mueller and Burgess Everett

Confusion over El Paso airspace closure

Confusion is mounting over why the Federal Aviation Administration ordered — and then rescinded — a 10-day closure of airspace over El Paso, Texas. An administration official told Semafor that “Mexican cartel drones breached US airspace” and that the Pentagon “took action to disable the drones,” before determining (with the FAA) that the airspace was safe. But subsequent reporting by CNN suggests that the airspace closure came after the Pentagon wanted to use a “high-energy, counter-drone laser” without first coordinating with the FAA; the AP reported Customs and Border Protection used the anti-drone laser earlier this week. The FAA also reportedly did not consult with the White House before announcing it would close the airspace. Asked about that aspect, an administration official did not directly answer, instead saying: “The administration is in lockstep to safeguard America’s national security and southern border against all foreign intrusions.”

— Shelby Talcott

Blindspot: Free speech and governors

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: The Trump administration plans to fund free-speech initiatives in Europe as US officials equate certain European regulations with censorship.

What the Right isn’t reading: The National Governors Association said both Republican and Democratic governors would meet with President Trump later this month, after the White House initially only invited Republicans to the regular meeting. 

Semafor is proud to announce its first slate of speakers for the 2026 Annual Convening of Semafor World Economy, taking place April 13-17 in Washington, DC. This global cohort of senior leaders from every major sector across the G20 are just some of the 400 top CEOs joining Semafor World Economy for five days of onstage conversations and in-depth interviews on growth, geopolitics, and technology. See the first lineup of speakers here.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: “If they don’t propose something that’s strong, that reins in ICE, that ends the killing — don’t expect our votes,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer warned Republicans.

Playbook: Leading NATO allies have lost their faith in the US’ ability to deter enemies, a new poll found.

WaPo: A GOP bill to tighten voter identification requirements could backfire electorally, as Republican supporters are less likely to have passports and more likely to change their last names when marrying, according to the director of democracy policy at the Center for American Progress.

Axios: Voters now believe former President Joe Biden did a better job than President Trump, three new polls indicated.

White House

• President Trump is considering exiting the US trade pact with Canada and Mexico. — Bloomberg