DONALD TRUMP’S APPROVAL RATING is sinking and gasping for air. His average net approval stands at -13.7, which is lower than Joe Biden’s was at this point in his term. Meanwhile, the share of Americans who strongly disapprove of the president broke 46 percent for the first time ever. This matters beyond cosmic justice: The president’s approval rating is the best predictor of midterm election outcomes. When it falls below 50 percent, his party tends to lose seats, as in the 1982, 1994, 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2018 elections. By contrast, when presidents enjoy approval above 50 percent, as in 2002 and 1998, the president’s party can actually gain seats in an off-year election.
