Trump’s 15% global tariff rate and an independent research piece detailing a potential AI dystopian scenario spooked investors.

Your Evening Briefing

February 23, 2026

Stocks sink amid AI and tariff fears

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all sank as stocks slumped amid AI anxiety and tariff turmoil after President Trump announced a 15% global tariff rate on Saturday.

On the AI front, a research piece published by Citrini Research and Lotus Technology Management managing partner Alap Shah titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” explored a hypothetical dystopian scenario in a world where there’s an aggressive AI build-out and adoption of AI agents. The report hit software stocks and payment stocks particularly hard, with the financial sector faring the worst today. Consumer staples and health care were the best performers as investors rotated into defensive stocks.

Surprisingly strong labor market data from earlier this month has the Federal Reserve’s standout doves more willing to stand down from advocating for additional rate cuts. Prediction markets indicate that the Federal Reserve is seen as a near lock to keep its policy rate unchanged at the March meeting. (Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Bitcoin market pain intensified as ETF outflows continued.

Stocks that moved higher:

  • PayPal jumped on a report of unsolicited takeover interest.
  • Arcellx skyrocketed on news that Gilead will buy the cancer therapy developer for up to $7.8 billion.
  • Chinese EV maker Nio climbed following news that the company provided a million battery swaps in China in less than a week.
  • Domino’s rose after Q4 revenue beat estimates by 1% and same-store sales grew 3.7% in the US.
  • Bitdeer rose as it sold its entire stash of bitcoin to help fund its pivot into a data center company.
  • Sandisk ticked higher, shaking off a slump that hit the shares last week after it priced a secondary offering of almost 6 million shares.

Stocks that moved lower:

  • Software stocks Datadog, Asana, CrowdStrike, AppLovin, Workday, DocuSign, Adobe, Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Palantir and payment stocks Synchrony Financial, American Express, Capital One, Mastercard, and Visa fell due to Citrini Research’s dystopian AI analysis.
  • Novo Nordisk plummeted after reporting that its experimental obesity drug fell short of Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide in a head-to-head trial.
  • IBM tumbled after Anthropic touted Claude Code’s ability to modernize old code.
  • VF Corp. sank after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to "Underweight" with a new price target of $18.
  • Strategy dropped after announcing a share sale to fund its 100th bitcoin purchase.

OpenAI’s planned cash burn was unlike anything we’d ever seen — now they’re doubling it

OpenAI is still the molten mass at the center of the AI universe, burning billions as it pulls talent, capital, and companies into its orbit. Read more.

Tech winners haven’t crushed tech losers by this much since the dot-com bubble was bursting

“Beware chasing good charts in technology, and at the margin, reduce exposure,” wrote Jeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro’s head of technical research.

Read more.

Anthropic says that a group of Chinese AI startups are “distilling” their models by setting up huge numbers of fake accounts for Claude AI. In a blog post, Anthropic said that they disrupted “industrial-scale” campaigns by Chinese AI labs DeepSeek, Moonshot, and MiniMax. The company said that the group had over 16 million exchanges with Claude, after setting up 24,000 “fraudulent” accounts. Read more.

  • What Amazon’s latest data center announcement says about AI right now
    The first Amazon data centers in Louisiana will cost $12 billion and requires a lot of preemptive defense.
  • Ives says AI represents huge opportunity for cybersecurity firms as losses mount
    Cybersecurity stocks continued to slide Monday, after Anthropic unveiled a new security feature for its AI model Friday. 
  • Analysts slash Salesforce price targets ahead of Wednesday earnings, as narrative of AI eating its lunch persists
    Salesforce reports earnings Wednesday.
  • OpenAI teams up with consulting giants to boost its enterprise business
    OpenAI has a new sales force to market its enterprise AI tools to big corporations.
  • Paramount is expected to raise its Warner Bros. offer to $32 per share
    Paramount’s seven-day offer discussion window with Warner Bros. closes on Monday at 11:59 p.m. ET.
  • Report: OpenAI’s Stargate has been a chaotic mess
    Despite launching with great fanfare, the project has been plagued by partner disagreements and missed goals, according to a new report from The Information. 
  • Report: Anthropic CEO Amodei meeting with Hegseth at the Pentagon as tensions mount
    The Pentagon is threatening to effectively blacklist Anthropic’s AI if it does not agree to loosen its restrictions on its models’ use for certain national security and intelligence applications. 
  • OpenAI boosted its revenue and cash burn forecasts, The Information reports
    More top-line growth, more cash outflows.
  • Buterin’s sales, ETF outflow streak weigh on ethereum
    The ethereum cofounder sold $5.9 million worth of the asset over the past several days.
  • Taylor Swift’s “The Life of a Showgirl” sold 5x as many vinyls as the second-bestselling album last year
    The smash hit accounted for 3% of all vinyl sales, per new data.
  • Norway wins 18 gold medals at the Winter Olympics, more than any other country in history
    Despite its small population, the Scandinavian country has led the medal table at a third consecutive Winter Olympics.
  • Anglo American halves De Beers’ value as the natural diamond slump deepens
    The miner has now written down De Beers by roughly $6.8 billion over the past three years.
 

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