Washington, DC

1. Trump Cabinet worries
2. Behind banks-and-citizenship
3. The next Greenland?
4. US ups Iran pressure
5. Not so fast on censure
6. GOP disarray on voter ID bill
7. FCC chair praises CBS
8. Commerce’s robot meeting

PDB: Cuba kills four on US-registered boat

Trump, Zelenskyy speak ahead of US-Ukraine talks … Hillary Clinton appears for House Oversight deposition … Banking regulators testify before Senate

Republicans mull Cabinet shakeups

Senior Republicans are preparing for the possible exit of some of President Donald Trump’s top advisers as the midterms draw closer, Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott report. Their biggest question — beyond wondering whether Trump will even make changes — is when he might shake things up. “Folks are going to want to know that the team’s going to stay together through the election,” Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., said. Trump’s newfound disinterest in personnel changes, even as there’s been plenty of drama from Cabinet members like Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, could become a liability if Democrats have a particularly successful election year. “He looks at it so differently than the rest of us,” one person close to the White House said, while White House spokesman Davis Ingle said congressional Democrats “should focus on helping the American people, not opposing President Trump.”

Inside Trump’s new citizenship play

The Trump administration’s exploration of a new requirement that banks collect proof of citizenship from their customers began at the end of last year, a person familiar with the talks told Semafor. The person added that officials initially considered tapping banking regulators to draft a memo for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent before eventually putting Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network in charge of gaming out the options. That memo, laying out potential paths forward under existing law — as well as possible pros and cons for each proposal currently under consideration — has been in the works since earlier this month, the person said. Some options to require the citizenship documentation would be binding, while others would be voluntary. But the closer the administration gets to formally embracing the proposal, the harder banks will fight back against an idea they warn would be nightmarish to implement.

— Eleanor Mueller

New Caledonia could be minerals target

The Trump administration’s pattern of pressuring Europe over strategically located territories — like Greenland and Diego Garcia — has some analysts wondering whether New Caledonia could be next. The French-controlled Pacific archipelago sits atop an estimated 25% of the world’s known nickel reserves, potentially drawing interest as Chinese firms buy up stakes in key minerals. American and Australian strategic planners have flagged the Pacific mineral supply as a possible chokepoint in future conflicts. “It’s a place where China is deeply interested,” Erik Bethel, the US representative to the World Bank during Trump’s first term and partner at Mare Liberum, told Semafor of New Caledonia. But Trump’s focus hasn’t turned there yet. A White House official told Semafor they “are not aware of any conversations regarding New Caledonia,” adding that Trump has already addressed nickel supply chain issues via his Indonesia trade pact.

— Shelby Talcott and Adrian Elimian

US ups Iran pressure ahead of talks

The US and Iran have another chance to narrow their disagreements as they sit for indirect nuclear talks in Geneva today. In the meantime, pressure is ramping up on both sides. The US imposed new sanctions on companies supporting Iran’s ballistic missile and weapons development and ships comprising Iran’s “shadow fleet.” Iran issued warnings of its own, with one regime source telling the Financial Times that Iran has shifted to a military strategy “designed to impose tangible costs on American forces and assets if conflict erupts.” Still, the White House continues to stress that diplomacy is Trump’s preferred avenue — but not his only one. “We’re hopeful that we’re able to come to a good resolution without the military, but if we have to use the military, the president of course has that right as well,” Vice President JD Vance said on Fox News.

Johnson speaks on Dem SOTU protests

House Speaker Mike Johnson was cool to the prospect of formally punishing Democrats like Rep. Al Green of Texas for protesting at the State of the Union. “We’ll be talking about that. … I think the punishment is the video that lives on forever of them acting as they did, the total lack of respect and decorum and just carrying it on,” he told Semafor. “I think it’s a bad look for them and their party.” There’s not much appetite among other top Republicans, either. “I get frustrated. Everybody calls on everybody to be censured,” said Rep. James Comer, R-Ky. But even if GOP leaders aren’t thrilled by the idea of devoting more time to an inevitable back-and-forth over legislative punishments, it’s still possible for rank-and-file GOP lawmakers to force a House vote on a censure under fast-track procedures that bypass committees and leadership.

— Nicholas Wu

Marshall says Dems key to voter ID bill

Senate Republicans are sharply divided over how to pursue the SAVE America Act voter ID and citizenship bill. Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, wants Senate Majority Leader John Thune to force Democrats to use a talking filibuster to block it, but Thune says Republicans are not united on the idea. And there also aren’t the votes to change the filibuster. But Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., has an idea. “We should be locked in on trying to get eight or nine Democrats to vote yes on the SAVE Act,” Marshall told Semafor. “That’s the most plausible route to success.” Democrats say the bill is not necessary. But even then Republicans think forcing Democrats to block it repeatedly could be useful. “Look at the polling on this. Why wouldn’t we want to just pound that message every day?” Hoeven said.

— Burgess Everett

FCC’s Carr says new CBS doing ‘great’

FCC Chair Brendan Carr had nice things to say on Wednesday about CBS, now under new management. “They’re doing a great job,” Carr said at Semafor’s Restoring Trust in Media event Wednesday, adding that he appreciates the network is “trying to do something different” and experimenting with new formats. Since David Ellison took over as CEO of Paramount, CBS’ parent company, the network has made several changes seen as friendly to conservatives, including buying The Free Press. As chairman, Carr has resurrected long-dormant rules requiring broadcast TV stations to offer equal time to opposing political candidates, and has pressured networks to comply. He has also clashed with Trump-critical media personalities like Stephen Colbert, who alleged last week that CBS held a segment the host taped with Texas Democrat James Talarico (CBS denies this). Asked which network the FCC will investigate next, Carr demurred: “We’ll see.”

Commerce to host robot makers

The Commerce Department is convening US robot manufacturers for a roundtable next month as it looks to bolster the domestic industry and thwart Chinese competition, Semafor’s J.D. Capelouto scoops. According to an invitation from Commerce’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration reviewed by Semafor, the March 10 gathering aims to identify “key supply chain and policy challenges affecting American robotics manufacturing and deployment.” A Commerce spokesperson said the administration is gathering robot makers to solicit industry feedback on federal robotics policies, though the discussion is not meant to overlap with existing work on tariffs or export controls. The meeting will take place weeks before Trump is scheduled to visit China for his summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping; robotics is emerging as a major front in the US-China tech war.

This April, David Miliband, President and CEO of International Rescue Committee, will join global leaders at Semafor World Economy — the premier convening for the world’s top executives — to sit down with Semafor editors for conversations on the forces shaping global markets, emerging technologies, and geopolitics. See the first lineup of speakers here.

Applications for Semafor World Economy Principals are now open — apply now.

Blindspot: SOTU and searches

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: About two-thirds of those who watched President Trump’s State of the Union address had at least a somewhat positive reaction to it, according to a CNN poll. 

What the Right isn’t reading: The Justice Department lost a legal battle to search a Washington Post reporter’s devices in the course of a leak investigation.