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American and Israeli missiles continue to rain down on Iran after a massive opening salvo of attacks on Feb. 28, 2026. The destruction will undoubtedly continue for some time, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio yesterday told U.S. lawmakers, “The hardest hits are yet to come from the U.S. military.”

But destruction does not equal political success, writes international relations scholar Farah N. Jan. What destruction does do, she argues, is generate power vacuums, radicalization and cycles of retaliation. For proof, one need only look at the history of U.S. bombing campaigns in the Middle East. They include Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq, where the 2003 U.S. “shock and awe” campaign achieved its military objective in weeks but never fulfilled its political goal.

As in Iraq, there is no American theory of political endgame in Iran – only the theory of destruction, writes Jan. But Iran’s political system is deep-rooted, having survived for four decades, she adds. And it’s likely to survive American air power that can obliterate buildings but historically has been unable to build political order.

What began as U.S. and Israeli strikes on targets in Iran has quickly developed into a broader regional conflict. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, an expert on Gulf dynamics, explains that Tehran wants to widen the conflict to exert more pressure on Washington. “Tehran’s hope is that the economic impact will encourage Gulf leaders to press Trump for an endgame,” Ulrichsen writes.

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Alfonso Serrano

Politics + Society Editor

A plume of smoke rises after a strike in Tehran on March 2, 2026. AP Photo/Mohsen Ganji

‘Destruction is not the same as political success’: US bombing of Iran shows little evidence of endgame strategy

Farah N. Jan, University of Pennsylvania

As US bombing operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya have shown, destruction is not the same as political success.

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