The Morning: Goals of the war

March 4, 2026

Good morning. Sam’s away. Iranian officials are deliberating over who should replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the slain supreme leader. His son has emerged as a front-runner. (Read about him here.)

Israel is striking Iranian security sites, markets are down in Asia and oil prices have surged. We have more news from Iran — as well as primary results from the U.S. — below.

An Iranian flag flutters in a pile of debris.

Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

Goal setting

	by Evan Gorelick and Tom Wright-Piersanti

The beheading of Iran’s regime last weekend was just the beginning. The conflict is spiraling outward: Today, Iran targeted its neighbors, Saudi Arabia intercepted cruise missiles and Israel flattened buildings in Lebanon. The United States is launching “24/7 strikes into Iran,” American officials said.

The U.S., Israel and the Gulf states are ostensibly on the same side, but they do not always have the same goals. And Iran, playing defense, wants the least-worst outcome. In today’s newsletter, we explore what each side hopes to achieve.

Iran’s government wants to survive.

The plan for Iran is to make the war painful enough that the United States will declare victory and go home, writes Steven Erlanger, who covers diplomacy and security.

To inflict that pain, Iran is trying to drive up the cost of the war. It has attacked oil and gas infrastructure in neighboring countries and shut down the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the economies of the Persian Gulf and driving up global energy prices and inflation.

A woman and two children are walking along a street. A large billboard with a picture of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is behind them.

In Tehran on Monday. Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

The Islamic republic also wants to expand the battlefield. It has launched thousands of drones and missiles at Israel, U.S. bases and Gulf states. The intent there isn’t only to kill, but also to deplete their enemies’ supplies of expensive missile interceptors.

The strategy, Steven writes, is known as “asymmetric endurance” — accepting some damage now in order to fight back when the enemies’ defenses are stretched thin. Maybe then “Trump, facing midterm elections and a skeptical MAGA movement, will choose to curtail the war before American casualties, and inflation, go much higher,” Steven writes.

Israel wants to break the Iranian regime.

For years, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu railed against Iran’s nuclear program but avoided direct confrontation, fearing retaliation from Hezbollah, Tehran’s proxy army in Lebanon. But now, Iran’s supreme leader is dead, Hezbollah is weakened, and Israel is seizing its chance to remake the Middle East. With American support, it hopes to batter Iran, wreck its nuclear and missile programs and push its government to the breaking point.

For weeks, Israel met with Trump to plan the military campaign. The Americans vacillated but ultimately thought a unilateral Israeli attack would drag the U.S. into war anyway. So they decided to coordinate.

This logic sat poorly with some Democrats, who thought the Trump administration was letting Netanyahu dictate American policy. Some Republicans, too: Tucker Carlson visited the White House three times in the past month, arguing that Trump should not be dragooned by Israel.

Gulf countries want to keep things stable.

Persian Gulf countries have cultivated close ties with Washington, hosting American military bases and spending billions on American weapons to protect themselves from Iran and its regional proxies.

Now, Vivian Nereim writes, the assault they feared has become reality. Iran has fired more than a thousand missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. The targets include not only U.S. bases and embassies, but also energy installations, airports and resorts.

The U.S. wants …

A lot of different things. The Trump administration has outlined many reasons for its military campaign against Iran, including stopping Iran’s nuclear program, decimating its fleet of missiles, hobbling its anti-Western proxies, pre-empting an attack and forcing regime change (the administration later said this was not a goal).

Yesterday, speaking to the press in the Oval Office, Trump boiled down his rationale for attacking Iran: “It’s an evil ideology.” Asked whom he would like to take over Iran, Trump acknowledged that he wasn’t sure. “Most of the people we had in mind are dead,” he said. “Now we have another group — they may be dead also, based on reports.” The worst outcome, he said, would be that whoever takes over Iran could be “as bad” as their predecessors.

And in a letter to congress, Trump said his goal was to advance American national interests and eliminate Iran as a global threat.

For Trump, the campaign is high-reward, but also high-risk. His approval rating has flagged, and Republicans may lose control of Congress, writes Tyler Pager, who covers the White House. Six American service members have been killed, and U.S. military jets were shot out of the sky. Investors are bracing for a disruption to oil supplies.

But Trump, who often uses the economy as a barometer of success, said he wasn’t worried that the war would send oil prices soaring. The campaign against Iran could extend for weeks, he said.

Goal setting

Iran’s government wants to survive.

Israel wants to break the Iranian regime.

Gulf countries want to keep things stable.

The U.S. wants …

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