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March 4, 2026 
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| James Talarico, left, and Ken Paxton Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times; Desiree Rios for The New York Times |
A wild ride in Texas is just getting started
Good morning. The first primary elections of the 2026 midterm campaign arrived yesterday. It was quite a night.
The biggest story was in Texas, where Senator John Cornyn was forced into a potentially messy Republican runoff election while Democrats anointed a new star, James Talarico, as he won their party’s nomination for the Senate.
In many ways, the drama is just beginning.
From now until the runoff in late May, Cornyn — whose allies waged an extraordinary and expensive rescue mission — will keep battling Ken Paxton, the state’s scandal-plagued, hard-right attorney general who is beloved by the MAGA grass roots. The first round of voting, at least, was close: Early Wednesday, Cornyn was leading by about 42 percent to 41 percent.
Will President Trump endorse one of them? That could be decisive, but the president has so far stayed out of the race. One thing to watch: Cornyn is popular with his fellow Republican senators, and many national Republicans fear Paxton could endanger the seat. Do they persuade the president to get on board?
| CANDIDATE | VOTES | PCT. |
| James Talarico J. Talarico  |
| 1,174,898 | 52.9% |
| Jasmine Crockett J. Crockett |
| 1,014,693 | 45.7% |
| 29,388 | 1.3% |
| CANDIDATE | VOTES | PCT. |
| John Cornyn* J. Cornyn*  |
| 894,602 | 41.9% |
| Ken Paxton K. Paxton |
| 869,647 | 40.7% |
| 288,189 | 13.5% |
94% of votes in  Advanced to runoff *Incumbent |
Source: Election results and race calls are from The Associated Press. Results as of March 4, 2026, 8:10 a.m. E.T. |
Either way, Stop-Paxton efforts in the runoff could get quite ugly, if the lead-up to the primary was any indication. (One ad called out the accusations of infidelity against Paxton in vivid terms.)
Democrats agree with Republicans on at least one thing: If Paxton wins the G.O.P. nomination, he could be uniquely vulnerable in a general election.
To be clear, it will not be easy for Democrats to make a Texas Senate seat truly competitive — much less to actually win it.
But many think they got one step closer on Tuesday, when Talarico, a seminarian fluent in the language of faith and focused on outreach across the political aisle, emerged as the top vote-getter.
He finished ahead of Representative Jasmine Crockett, a liberal firebrand, who conceded early Wednesday morning. She had earlier pointed to voting problems in Dallas County, her hometown.
As we move into the next phase of this contest, I have a lot of questions. Do Republican donors pony up for another anti-Paxton push? Can Cornyn hold on? How seriously do Democrats start treating Texas? It’s going to be a wild ride.
The Texas Senate race, of course, was far from the only contest on the ballot yesterday. You can get caught up here, where my colleagues across the country are covering what’s next. And we’ll be back with another edition of On Politics tonight.
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