Anyone living under a rock could be forgiven for thinking not much has happened in markets since the U.S. strikes on Iran—but the S&P 500’s muted weekly move hides the maelstrom shaking up stocks, oil, and the usual havens.

Nearly a week on from the start of the Iran conflict there is little sign of how it might end. Although the Iranian regime’s military capabilities are weakened, publicly its ministers are still adamant they won’t negotiate. In any case, it’s not clear that the U.S. and Israel are eager for talks. President Donald Trump has said he must have a role in selecting Iran’s new leader, and U.S. officials have repeatedly suggested they are ready for a much longer operation than investors would have hoped for.

Energy markets are faced with the likelihood of further shocks. Crude oil prices are already up more than 20% in the past week, while natural gas prices have soared much higher. The Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries around a fifth of the world’s oil, remains effectively closed after Tehran hit tankers passing through local waterways. Oil futures are trading at their highest levels since the summer of 2024. 

If oil prices remain around their current levels and below $100, the U.S. market at least shouldn’t be too fazed. Economists reckon it would take prices reaching around $125 a barrel to significantly hit the American economy, which is shielded by its significant domestic production. And there are signs the Trump administration is also keen to mitigate the impact abroad, such as Thursday’s move to issue a 30-day waiver for Indian purchases of Russian oil stranded at sea. But stopgap measures can only go so far. Prices for oil contracts as far out as 12 months’ time are rising, in a sign traders are bracing for extended disruption. 

If we’re back here next Friday with no indication that the Strait of Hormuz is on its way to being effectively reopened—either due to negotiations or Iran’s military exhaustion—then the laid-back investor who only checks their holdings once a week might be in for a nasty shock.

—Adam Clark

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Oil prices are at their highest levels in nearly two years amid a U.S.-Iran conflict that has no clear resolution. It won’t damage the U.S. economy unless oil prices rise to around $125 a barrel, say several economists who have analyzed the effects of oil’s recent spike.

• Front month Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose nearly 5% to $85.41 a barrel on Thursday, a new 52-week high, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It’s the highest settlement level for the futures since July 2024, and is up more than 40% so far this year.

• The U.S. entered the war on solid economic footing. Real gross domestic product grew by 2.2% in 2025, with many economists expecting economic growth to top 3% in the first quarter. Consumers also have proved largely resilient despite elevated inflation and weaker labor conditions.

• One thing that could relieve some anxiety is that the economy’s sensitivity to oil shocks has “changed materially” in recent decades, with the U.S. now the world’s largest energy producer and net exporter, writes PGIM’s chief global economist, Daleep Singh.

• But at $125 a barrel, oil does start to affect things. RSM U.S. Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas says at that level oil prices would generate a drag of up to one percentage point on GDP growth and lead to a 1.6 percentage-point increase in inflation as measured by the consumer price index.

What’s Next: Brusuelas calculates that if oil were to hit $125 a barrel, gasoline pump prices would rise by $1.25 a gallon. Gas prices averaged $3.25 a gallon nationwide on Thursday, according to AAA. That is about 4.6% higher than a year ago, but far below the $5.02 peak hit in June 2022.

—Megan Leonhardt and Liz Moyer

President Donald Trump faces another obstacle in his strategy to use tariffs to raise revenue and extract trade and other agreements from other countries. Two dozen states have sued the administration to block his latest 10% tariffs, which was Trump’s response to a Supreme Court ruling.

• The states are taking aim at 10% tariffs on imports Trump announced in February, right after the Supreme Court ruled the tariffs he imposed last year using emergency powers were illegal. The states are fighting the 10% tariffs in the U.S. Court of International Trade.

• Their lawsuit says Trump is misusing Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, when the dollar was pegged to gold and the law protected against a “balance of payments” crisis. Trump cites trade deficits as justification for the 10% tariffs, which the states say improperly applies the law. 

• White House spokesman Kush Desai told Barron’s that the Trump administration will “vigorously defend the President’s action in court,” adding that the president is using his congressionally granted authority to address international payments problems.

• The states said a “trade deficit is distinct from” a balance of payments deficit. While the U.S. does have a trade deficit in goods, it has a surplus in foreign investment and capital. Factoring that in, the U.S.’ actual balance of payments is about 0.2% of GDP.

What’s Next: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the latest tariffs will rise to 15% this week, matching the level Trump raised them to in a social media post one day after signing the 10% tariff executive order. If the court strikes down these latest tariffs, the administration might have to refund importers.

—Anita Hamilton and Sabrina Escobar

BlackRock delivered another jolt to the private credit market, a key investor concern even before the U.S.-led war in Iran. BlackRock recently wiped out the value of a $25 million loan to Amazon aggregator Infinite Commercial Holdings, reviving worries about weakening fundamentals in the massive—but opaque—lending market.

• The write-down came just three months after the loan had been valued at par, Bloomberg reported. BlackRock told Barron’s that the valuation change was made at the end of December, and became public in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing published Feb. 27.

• The revaluation marks another point of concern for the broader private sector, which some estimate exceeds $3 trillion, after last month’s halting of regular redemptions from a fund managed by Blue Owl Capital. Blue Owl shares have dropped 45% from their September peak and are down 30% this year.

• Investors are concerned about similar weaknesses in the myriad funds that private credit lenders, business development companies, and alternative asset managers have developed over the past decade. JPMorgan CEO Jaime Dimon calls that the “cockroach” theory, meaning that one problem suggests others may follow.

• Eric Clark, portfolio manager at LOGO ETF, said the angst around private credit and real estate because of layoffs and needing less office space, along with the software exposure, create a rare buying opportunity to acquire a business that’s “wildly more stable than the stocks might indicate.”

What’s Next: BlackRock’s Scott Kapnick said this week that most big managers are very good at managing risk and scaled players are going to continue to benefit from this period. Investors are watching closely to see whether this latest markdown is isolated—or an early signal of deeper cracks in private credit.

—Martin Baccardax and Janet H. Cho

Berkshire Hathaway and its new CEO Greg Abel have both begun repurchasing company stock for the first time in years, according to a securities filing Thursday. It’s a bold departure from former CEO and current Chairman Warren Buffett’s approach, and something Abel says he’ll keep doing.

• A longstanding buyback policy lets Berkshire buy back stock if the CEO, after consulting with the chairman of the board, determines that the repurchase price is below Berkshire’s intrinsic value. Abel succeeded Buffett as CEO on Jan. 1.

• “I absolutely talked to Warren,” Abel told CNBC, saying Berkshire normally wouldn’t divulge the start of a repurchase plan, but felt it was important to do so. Abel consulted with Buffett on the value and the timing, and plans to buy Berkshire stock annually to signal alignment with shareholders.

• Whereas Buffett preferred to reinvest cash in stocks, Abel bought $15 million of Berkshire’s Class A stock, from the after-tax proceeds of his $25 million in compensation this year, a filing showed. Abel holds 249 A shares now valued at about $189 million.

• The moves boosted Berkshire’s Class B shares 2.7% on Thursday, while the S&P 500 index closed down 0.6%. Abel and other Berkshire executives and employees are paid in cash, and receive no stock compensation. Abel must buy stock in the open market if he wants to own more.

What’s Next: Abel wrote in his inaugural shareholder letter that Berkshire is guided by its capital discipline, whether buying a business, an equity share of a publicly traded company, or its own shares. “We will assess value carefully, act patiently, and hold for the long term—preferably forever.”

—Mackenzie Tatananni, Andrew Bary, and Janet H. Cho

It’s been a big week for two of the main artificial-intelligence hardware stocks with Marvell Technology posting better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings Thursday just a day after a strong report from rival Broadcom. Custom processors are emerging as a pocket of strength in an otherwise patchy AI trade.

• Marvell reported adjusted earnings of 80 cents a share on revenue of $2.22 billion. Analysts expected earnings of 79 cents a share on revenue of $2.21 billion, according to FactSet. Data-center revenue in the quarter was $1.65 billion, compared to analyst estimates of $1.63 billion and a 21% climb from the same period last year.