Washington, DC

1. Dems dig in on DHS
2. GOP’s immigration pivot
3. Mixed Iran messages
4. Trump on the road
5. Pro-Barr PAC hits Morris
6. Housing bill update
7. AI use rises in US

PDB: Republican, Democrat move to runoff for Georgia House seat

WSJ: IEA proposes largest-ever strategic oil release … UN says nearly 700,000 displaced in Lebanon … Right-wing firebrand takes office in Chile

DHS chaos reigns as Mullin set to take over

Democrats are not rolling out the red carpet for Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., as he prepares to become the secretary of Homeland Security. In fact, they might even keep the department shut down through Mullin’s confirmation if there’s no movement on immigration enforcement, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., called Mullin a “figurehead,” and Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., said unless there are policy changes, “you could just be overridden by a goon like Stephen Miller.” The White House insisted DHS, not Miller, runs the day-to-day of the agency. And a person familiar with DHS negotiations said talks have improved since Kristi Noem’s ouster: “Noem’s removal has made shutdown negotiations significantly more productive and much smoother.” We’ll find out soon enough: Senate Majority Leader John Thune moved Tuesday to set up another vote on DHS funding this week.

White House tweaks deportation rhetoric

The White House is telling Republicans to refine their immigration messaging as the party stares down the midterm elections, a tacit acknowledgement that its hard-line rhetoric about mass deportation risks alienating voters. White House deputy chief of staff James Blair told House Republicans in a closed-door meeting at their retreat Tuesday that their messaging on deportations should focus on efforts to remove criminals from the US, a person familiar with his comments told Semafor (the comments were first reported by Axios). House Speaker Mike Johnson also seemed to acknowledge the rhetoric is a vulnerability, telling reporters: “We got a little hiccup with some of the Hispanic, Latino voters for certain, because some of the immigration enforcement was viewed to be overzealous.” Blair already seems to be testing out the new messaging. However, some think softening their words could backfire with President Donald Trump’s base.

— Shelby Talcott, Nicholas Wu, and Morgan Chalfant

Confusing Iran messages roil markets

The Trump administration’s mixed messages on the Iran war weighed on markets, as an intensifying conflict saw Washington and Tehran train their attention on the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said Tuesday US forces had destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the crucial oil passage, while UK authorities said three ships off Iran’s coast were hit by projectiles. It came after Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted, then deleted, an announcement about the US Navy escorting an oil tanker through the Strait, sending crude prices plunging and forcing the White House to clarify that no such action had been taken. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday the war would end only when Trump determines that Iran is “in a position of complete and unconditional surrender.” Meanwhile, inside the administration, conflict is brewing about how to warn Americans about potential homegrown threats related to the war, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott scooped.

Trump takes economy pitch to Midwest

Trump’s next stop on his affordability tour: the Midwest. The president will visit Ohio and Kentucky today “to tout his economic victories and detail his administration’s aggressive, ongoing efforts to lower prices and make America more affordable,” White House spokesperson Liz Huston told Semafor. He’ll meet with lawmakers and entrepreneurs along the way, Leavitt said. Both states have been hit hard by tariffs, with Kentucky joining a multistate lawsuit against Trump’s latest levies. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will provide new insight into costs when it releases its February inflation report this morning. Like its February jobs report, it will not show the effects of the war in Iran.

— Eleanor Mueller

GOP spending rises in Kentucky Senate race

A group supporting Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., in Kentucky’s Senate race is dropping more money to attack businessman Nate Morris in the Republican primary, according to details first shared with Semafor. The group, Keep America Great PAC, is dropping $750,000 in the Bluegrass State on a new ad that hits Morris and his company for its record on immigration and calls Morris “fully woke and full of sh*t.” The seat might be a safe one for Republicans, but you wouldn’t know it from the spending: The pro-Barr super PAC has now dropped $7.5 million on the race, which is pitting Barr, Morris, and former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron against one another in the May 19 primary. A pro-Morris group received $10 million from Elon Musk earlier this year, another sign of just how tight the race to succeed Mitch McConnell is.

— Burgess Everett

Senate set to pass housing bill this week

The Senate is on track to pass Trump’s proposed ban on institutional investors in housing as part of a larger package of measures this week. Trump said he won’t sign any bills until Congress passes new voter ID legislation, which still leaves the door open for bills to automatically become law after 10 days. Asked whether Trump would veto the housing bill if it got to his desk before the voting legislation, a White House official pointed Semafor to a Statement of Administration Policy backing the housing bill. There are speed bumps along the way: Housing groups and some senators remain frustrated with a provision that would require investors to sell any rental properties they build to individuals within seven years. House Republicans, meanwhile, still want to see more of their ideas included, and an expiration date for banning central bank digital currency removed.

— Eleanor Mueller

More employees are using AI

More employees across the public and private sectors are using artificial intelligence, as worries mount about the technology disrupting the job market. In the fourth quarter of last year, 43% of public-sector employees said they used AI at least a few times annually, according to Gallup polling released Wednesday; that’s a significant increase from the 28% who reported doing so in the second quarter of 2024. And 21% of public-sector workers reported using AI frequently during Q4 of last year. The rates were similar in the private sector, where 41% reported using AI late last year, including a quarter who reported using it frequently. But AI use is not prevalent across every sector. It’s more common in knowledge-based industries — like finance, where 40% reported using the technology frequently in the last quarter of 2025 — compared with service industries.

Blindspot: Air Force and DEI

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: President Trump tapped Erika Kirk, the widow of the late conservative activist Charlie Kirk, to sit on the US Air Force Academy Board of Visitors.

What the Right isn’t reading: Justice Department lawyer Ed Martin is being accused of ethics violations over a letter he sent to Georgetown Law threatening not to hire students over the school’s diversity, equity, and inclusion programs.

Bilt Rewards launched in 2019 with a simple idea. If you can get credit-card rewards for buying a round of drinks, why can’t you get them for paying your rent? After a shambolic and short-lived partnership with Wells Fargo, the company is back with bigger ambitions: To be the platform powering 12% of the economy — housing services — plus a big chunk of what people spend on dining, workouts, health care, and other local services. On this week’s episode of Compound Interest, co-hosts Liz Hoffman and Rohan Goswami sit down with Bilt CEO Ankur Jain to unpack its Amex-Shopify-Square ambitions — and why every company wants to be a membership club.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: NRCC Chair Richard Hudson, R-N.C., said the smallest House map in recent memory will help Republicans hold on to their narrow majority in the midterms, defying the usual swing. “Picture 30 knife fights in 30 dark alleys,” he said.

Playbook: White House officials believe they have three to four weeks “where they can ride out what they need to” before higher oil prices become a persistent political problem, one administration source said.

Axios: The US strike that destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels yesterday was a preemptive measure to hit inactive ships and drew on intelligence about Iran’s operational plans, according to a senior US official.

WaPo: “We now have both parties choosing both their voters and their candidates,” Republican operative Doug Heye said of rising hyper-partisanship. “It’s precisely why voters have become cynical of politics on every level.”

Congress

• Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who met with Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh on Tuesday, said he was “optimistic” that the dispute holding up his confirmation would be resolved.
• House Speaker Mike Johnson said he discussed “tone” and “message” with Republicans who recently made anti-Muslim remarks, but said they had a right to push back against the “demand to impose Sharia law.”
• Jeremy Carl, President Trump’s pick for a senior State Department post, dropped out after Sen. John Curtis, R-Utah, promised to vote against him.