Dire Straits: The Iran War Is Run by Idiots

People were not happy with me in the comments after yesterday’s TNL. Many were upset that I spent part of the episode lamenting how unbelievably stupid some very large percentage of America is.

And maybe these critics were right. Maybe I’ve been too hard on The People. Maybe I need to stop being so elitist and show them some grace. I’m going to take some time to reflect and plan to expand and revise my remarks on Friday.

Make of that what you will.

Today we have to talk about some other idiots.

1. The Stupid War

It should not surprise you that the same team which invited a reporter into a Signal chat about war plans a few months ago have been blindsided by the Iranian regime’s resilience.

After less than two weeks, regime change is off the table and even the Israeli military understands that the Islamic Republic isn’t going away anytime soon.

Yesterday the U.S. military admitted that it was incapable of protecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Maybe U.S. military planners before the war were too confident of their ability to keep the strait open. Or maybe the president, the secretary of defense, and the rest of the people actually in charge didn’t give a moment’s thought to the Strait of Hormuz when they launched the war and refused to listen to anyone who did.

Whichever it was, Iran has so far achieved its two most important strategic objectives. The regime has passed its first continuity test, transferring power from one supreme leader to the next. And it has closed the strait, setting in motion a cascade of economic consequences which will sap America’s political will to continue fighting.

Meanwhile, the American military is now telling the New York Times that, far from collapsing, the Iranian regime is adapting to the Israeli–American onslaught and finding our weaknesses.

The Iranian military is adjusting its tactics as the U.S.–Israeli bombing campaign progresses, senior U.S. defense officials said, even as the Trump administration insists that the United States is winning the war.

In the 11 days since the conflict began, Iran has targeted key American air defense and radar systems in the region, according to U.S. military officials and military experts.

Iranian-backed militias have attacked hotels frequented by American troops. One militia in Iraq launched a drone swarm attack on an upscale hotel in Erbil, demonstrating that Iran was aware that the Pentagon was housing troops in hotels in the region, a senior U.S. military official said.

He and two other officials said that Iran appeared to have accepted that it could not match the United States and Israel on pure firepower. But by simply surviving the barrage, the officials said, the government in Tehran can claim victory.

The Iranian military, the officials said, appears to be targeting what it views as American vulnerabilities: interceptors and air defenses meant to guard troops and assets in the region.

No shit, Sherlock.

How is it possible that the people in charge of running America’s war—by which I mean the commander-in-chief and his secretary of defense—could have misunderestimated Iran so completely? ...