Washington, DC

1. Mixed signals on strait
2. Pivot from Asia
3. Problematic ‘beautiful’ sequel
4. Housing bill tension
5. Permitting reform picks up
6. Senate targets scammers
7. Whitmer defends pragmatism

Fertilizer companies ▲ as much as 10%, as blockages in Strait of Hormuz drive prices up.

Trump admin sends mixed messages on Strait of Hormuz

President Donald Trump and his administration are sending mixed signals on the war in Iran again, this time about the Strait of Hormuz. When a reporter asked the president Wednesday whether oil companies should use the strait he said, “I think they should.” But US Central Command urged civilians just hours before to stay away because of Iranian military activity. The Trump administration is under pressure to bring down gas prices, but efforts to curb the rise in crude oil haven’t worked well, so far. Even after an announcement by the International Energy Association Wednesday to release an unprecedented amount of global oil reserves, crude oil prices barely moved. A return to stability will be the ultimate solution, not mixed messages.

Iran draws military resources away from Asia

The war in Iran is pulling US attention and military resources away from Asia, fraying nerves among US allies. As Iranian drones and missiles continue to pound US partners and assets in the Middle East, the military has had to dig deep into its stockpile of costly interceptors. The Pentagon is looking to Asia to fill the gaps: It has moved two guided-missile destroyers from Japan to the Arabian Sea, and officials are considering redeploying a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system from South Korea to the Middle East. US allies fear they could be left vulnerable to aggression from China and North Korea. On Tuesday, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said he opposed moving the defense assets. If the conflict with Iran drags on, America’s “pivot to Asia” might be a pivot away.

Republicans consumed by doomed push for ‘big, beautiful’ sequel

Republicans hoped to focus their midterm campaign on the bigger tax refunds Americans are getting from last year’s party-line megabill. Instead, they’re stuck in a doomed push to try for a sequel, Semafor’s Nicholas Wu reports from the House GOP retreat at President Donald Trump’s resort in Doral, Fla. Most lawmakers there said they doubted that the party could get another huge filibuster-proof bill to his desk, even as their own leaders called for one. And some of Speaker Mike Johnson’s members called for a different message ahead of the election, one that’s more focused on the economic goals Democrats are touting. “I’d rather see us dig in on something else that’s equally important, like housing, costs of groceries, those sorts of things, and really help drive some of these prices down,” said Rep. John Rutherford, R-Fla.

Resistance grows to Senate’s build-to-rent proposal

The Senate’s bipartisan housing bill already had big problems with House Republicans — but now it’s got issues with Democrats, too. Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, is joining administration officials, the House GOP, and industry stakeholders in objecting to language in the bill that would require investors in more than 350 homes to sell any rental properties they build to individuals within seven years. The provision, added as part of the Trump administration’s proposed ban on institutional investors in housing, is “positively Soviet,” Schatz (who voted against advancing the bill this week) said on the floor today. “We have decided, for no particular reason other than what I think is a drafting error, to demonize people who want to build rental housing.” While the White House has signaled the bill wouldn’t face a veto, it’s got a long way to go before reaching Trump’s desk.

— Eleanor Mueller

Trump warned to back off permitting

The outlook is brightening for permitting reform, according to senators in both parties. But they want to make sure the Trump administration doesn’t jeopardize progress by putting the brakes on already-approved projects or changing benefits for clean energy projects. At the BlackRock Infrastructure Summit on Wednesday morning, Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., told Semafor’s Burgess Everett that he doesn’t “like the idea of having incentives in place and then pulling the rug out from underneath it when companies have already made decisions based on prior law.” And Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., said she’s talking to the Trump administration about the benefits of clean energy and is “frustrated that this administration started to attack wind and solar.” Both senators said permitting reform for energy projects needs to be a top priority of this Congress. The midterm window may close without action soon.

Bipartisan bill targets senior-scammers

A bipartisan group of senators introduced a bill today that aims to protect seniors from financial scams, according to details shared first with Semafor. Lawmakers hope it hitches a ride to the Senate Banking Committee’s forthcoming capital formation package; the House passed identical legislation combatting scams as part of its own capital formation package last year. The proposal from Sens. Andy Kim, D-N.J., Susan Collins, R-Maine, Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., and Dave McCormick, R-Pa., would create a federal task force at the Securities and Exchange Commission that would “confront these crimes,” Kim said. Seniors lost as much as $81.5 billion to financial fraud in 2024, according to the Federal Trade Commission. “I’ve seen firsthand the devastating impact these scams have … and how far too often federal agencies remain unprepared,” Gillibrand, the top Democrat on the Senate Aging Committee, said.

— Eleanor Mueller

Whitmer defends working with Trump

Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s private meeting Tuesday with Trump went far more smoothly than an Oval Office encounter a year ago, when she fled after hiding her face behind a folder. In an interview with Semafor’s Ben Smith Wednesday, Whitmer said despite criticism from the left, her work with the president has paid off on the problem of Asian carp in the Great Lakes, disaster funding, and the future of the Selfridge Air National Guard Base. As Democratic governors in big blue states jockey to become chief Trump antagonist, Whitmer shows no sign of leaving her pragmatic lane. “I’m going to do what I think the right thing to do is for Michigan, and the people of Michigan have rewarded me for that,” she said, pointing to her 60% approval rating.

On Thursday, March 19, Dr. Vivek Murthy, 19th and 21st Surgeon General of the United States, will join Semafor for The State of Happiness in 2026: Wellbeing in the Digital Age.

The 2026 World Happiness Report, powered by new global data from Gallup, reveals striking generational shifts in wellbeing. From rising loneliness to changing patterns of social connection, the findings challenge assumptions about technology, social media, and happiness.

In partnership with Gallup, Semafor will bring together leaders across research, policy, media, and technology to explore what the evidence means — and how institutions and communities can foster deeper connection in a rapidly evolving digital world.

Join us for a forward-looking conversation on resilience, belonging, and the future of human connection.

March 19 | Washington, DC | RSVP

Iran

• Trump says the war with Iran will end “soon” because there is “practically nothing left to target.” — Axios
• Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. — CNN
• The US struck 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels.
• The office that would have investigated the bombing of a girl’s school on the first day of strikes in Iran was gutted by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth a year ago.
• The Iranian drone attack in Kuwait that killed six Americans left dozens more with gruesome injuries. — CBS
• The FBI warned California police departments that Iran could retaliate by launching drones at the West Coast.

Oil Prices

• Iran is exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz now than before the war. – WSJ
• Japan and Germany will release oil from their strategic reserves as well.
• Rising diesel prices are hitting truckers and farmers.

Politics

• Trump invited a primary challenger to Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., to a White House event in Kentucky.
• Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is at odds with her longtime lieutenant, Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer, over who should take his seat. — Politico

Courts

• Weyco Group, the company behind Trump’s favorite shoes, sued the administration in December over tariffs. — Business Insider
• Trump ordered the DOJ to continue defending sanctions against law firms after it had planned to drop the case without his approval. — WSJ