Good morning. Israel is striking Beirut’s city center, targeting Hezbollah in neighborhoods once considered safe. And an American refueling plane crashed in Iraq, killing four crew members. The crash was not because of hostile or friendly fire, the U.S. said. Yesterday proved that a short and surgical war with Iran could be a fantasy. For one thing, there was the charged language that Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader, used in his first address to the nation: Iran would avenge “the blood of your martyrs,” he said in remarks that were read on state television. For another, look at how effectively Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a battlefield. That battlefield has become President Trump’s biggest problem.
A dangerous bottleneckThe Strait of Hormuz is an excellent theater for Iran’s strategy of asymmetric warfare, my colleagues write. The waterway serves as the main artery for exports from the Persian Gulf, including a fifth of the world’s oil. And it’s just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point along Iran’s southern border. Staggering U.S. firepower may have shut Iran out of its own airspace. But local forces can still block and hobble commercial ships in the strait. They can fire at them from land, or place mines in their path. They can hit them with small boats full of explosives. Meanwhile, they are letting their own tankers through, full of crude. Read more about the closure. And look at where ships have been struck in the strait:
It makes sense for Iran to strangle global shipping and detonate the oil markets. That way, Trump could face pressure to stop the war. Khamenei has already vowed to keep blocking the strait. And you won’t currently find American military superiority there. Chris Wright, the U.S. energy secretary, told CNBC yesterday that it would be some time before the Navy would be in a position to escort oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. “We’re simply not ready,” he said. “All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities.” It won’t be a cakewalk for the United States if and when those gunboats arrive. A weekslong mine-clearing operation in the strait may be necessary, military officials told my colleagues — an expensive and dangerous enterprise that puts the lives of American sailors at risk. “The Strait of Hormuz is a difficult, almost impossible problem to solve through military means alone,” said a retired Air Force lieutenant general who served as a strategist in the Middle East during the 2000s. All of which appears to have caught the Trump administration flat-footed. What has likely surprised the administration, a research fellow at the Cato Institute told The Times, is “Iran’s ability to take pain and to keep going, and second, their ability to inflict costs and inflict pain on the United States.” Global shock
It’s not just the United States, though. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is already affecting the whole world’s economy, writes Patricia Cohen, who covers global economics. The effects are crashing down on both businesses and households. Cargo bound for world markets has been stranded, while the cost of shipping has risen and insurance premiums are going through the roof. We’re paying more for gas, of course — last night, Trump even lifted sanctions on Russian oil to help contain prices at the pump. But the cost of food, medicine, airplane tickets, electricity and semiconductors is soaring too. For some American farmers, the price of a common fertilizer has risen nearly 25 percent. Here’s Patti: In Kansas, home buyers saw 30-year mortgage rates edge above 6 percent this week. In Western India, families mourning the death of a loved one discovered that gas-fired crematories had been temporarily closed. In Hanoi, Vietnam, gas station owners posted “sold out” signs. In Kenya, tea growers and traders worried their exports to Iran would rot on the dock. And across the United States, Canada, Europe, Britain and Mexico, farmers blanched at the surge in fertilizer costs. “This really is the big one,” a former U.S. diplomat and Energy Department official told her. A disaster scenario is unfolding.
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Mussolini would have loved Trump’s new ballroom, writes Paul Goldberger, a former Times architecture critic. The law requires Justice Department lawyers to be truthful. A proposed rule by the Trump administration could change that, Deborah Pearlstein writes. There are young people who want to farm. We need to help them take over family farms, instead of letting major corporations consolidate the industry, Brooks Lamb writes. Morning readers: Save on the complete Times experience. Experience all of The Times, all in one subscription — all with this introductory offer. You’ll gain unlimited access to news and analysis, plus games, recipes, product reviews and more.
Superbloom: Wildflowers have burst from the desert floor in Death Valley. It’s the California park’s most abundant bloom in a decade. Master of modesty: The Chilean architect Smiljan Radic won this year’s Pritzker Prize, the highest award in architecture. The jury said his buildings embraced vulnerability. See some of them here. Your pick: The most-clicked story in The Morning yesterday was about NIMBY-ism and one very large addition to a house.
82 million— That is the estimated number of Americans, a third of all adults in the country, who say they are making sacrifices, including skipping meals or driving less, to pay for health care.
N.B.A.: The Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored at least 20 points for the 127th straight regular-season game, breaking a record Wilt Chamberlain had held since 1963. N.F.L.: The quarterback Kyler Murray, a former No. 1 pick in the draft who was released by the Arizona Cardinals, |
