If the administration's tariff efforts succeed, congressional Democrats warn in the study, the administration’s import taxes will cost American households an average of $2,512 in 2026, up 44% from $1,745 in tariff costs last year.
That is partly because the tariff revenue would be collected for the full year; Trump needed time to impose tariffs in 2025 and occasionally suspended them. The Democrats also assume that American households will absorb 100% of the tariff cost. They cite a Congressional Budget Office report concluding that importers can pass along 70% of the tariff costs to consumers and also allow domestic producers to raise prices.
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Calling the study “phony,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said “President Trump will continue using tariffs to renegotiate broken trade deals, lower drug prices, and secure trillions in investments for the American people.”
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