The Morning: And the Oscar goes to ...

March 15, 2026

Good morning. President Trump called on other countries to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz as fighting in the Middle East rattles the global economy. We have more news below.

But first, a guide to the Academy Awards, which are tonight.

Three gold Oscar statuettes covered in plastic.

In Los Angeles. Jutharat Pinyodoonyachet for The New York Times

And the Oscar goes to …

By Tom Wright-Piersanti

I’m an editor for The Morning.

Every year I tell myself I’m going to see all of the best picture nominees, and every year I come up short. There are 10! Unless you’re a professional critic, or the most dedicated film nerd in your county, you’re probably something like me. This newsletter is a guide to tonight’s Oscars ceremony for us, the silent majority — the ones who loved “Sinners,” who watched “F1” because it was there, who considered going to an art house theater but never got past the Google phase of the plan.

Give me the basics

If you’re coming to these Academy Awards cold, here’s one thing you should know: Two movies, “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another,” have dominated this awards season.

“Sinners,” directed by Ryan Coogler, set an Oscars record with 16 nominations. It’s as good as advertised — a tale of twin gangsters in Jim Crow-era Mississippi returning home to open a juke joint. Oh, and it’s a rollicking vampire flick.

“One Battle After Another,” a darkly comic thriller directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, about radical activists, received 13 nominations. Both movies are artistic blockbusters, films with big ideas and directorial vision that nevertheless brought in hundreds of millions of dollars.

And there’s a new category this year: best casting. To mark the award’s debut, The Times made a game that lets you vote on the worst casting choices in recent cinema history.

Who should win?

I’ll tag in Manohla Dargis, The Times’s chief film critic, who spoke about the performances and the movies she thought were most deserving on a recent episode of The Daily. Some of her picks:

Renate Reinsve in “Sentimental Value” for best actress: “You see her curiosity, her wonder, her difficulty. And because the filmmaker is not telling us what to think and how to feel, we come to that ourselves.”
Ethan Hawke in “Blue Moon” for best actor: “Hawke is a much greater and much more interesting actor than he was when he was cute and didn’t have as many lines on his face.”

“Sinners” or “One Battle After Another” for best picture: Both movies, she says, “are speaking to the American experience in a way that American cinema doesn’t necessarily do, particularly from the big studios — these movies feel urgent to us.”

Images of actors nominated for an Academy Award.

The New York Times

OK, but who will win?

Do you really want to know? Kyle Buchanan, a reporter who covers the awards season beat for The Times, makes predictions every year, and he’s really good at it. Last year, he nailed seven of the eight big awards. His picks for this year are here; given his track record, consider it a possible spoiler alert.

Kyle thinks that there’s a clear favorite in the best picture category, and that the same film will probably win for best director. (I won’t say which.) He says the race for best actress isn’t even close. But he’s unsure about the best actor race. The academy has a bias against handsome younger A-listers, and that could hinder the chances of two front-runners — Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”) and Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”).

Can I make some money on those picks?

You can certainly try. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket let people bet on the outcomes of sports, elections, even wars. My colleague Matt Stevens reports that people have already wagered more than $120 million on Oscars-related bets.

The Golden Globes broadcast this year showed the Polymarket odds for each award onscreen. One Hollywood journalist described it to Matt as a “continuous gambling ad.” But Polymarket users correctly picked 26 of the 28 Globe winners.

How can I see these movies?

The awards show is in just a few hours, but these are works that their creators hope will stand the test of time. You can stream most of the nominated films. (Here’s a guide from TV Guide.) A few from the best picture list:

HBO Max has “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.”
Netflix has “Frankenstein” and “Train Dreams.”
Peacock has “Bugonia” and “Hamnet.”

I also recommend our Anatomy of a Scene video series (each video is minutes, not hours, long). In every installment, a director offers commentary over a scene, explaining how it was made and why it’s important to the film. We have scenes from eight of the 10 best picture contenders. Think of it as an Oscars tasting menu.

Your Oscars reading list

Michael B. Jordan has starred in all five of Ryan Coogler’s feature films. The two men broke down their shared filmography, movie by movie.
“Marty Supreme” is one of the great Jewish movies, Esther Zuckerman argues — “an unapologetic depiction of the Jewish American experience in all of its complications.”
A school employee in Russia filmed students following the country’s wartime curriculum. His videos are the basis of a nominated documentary, “Mr. Nobody Against Putin.”
Jessie Buckley, who earned acclaim for her starring role in “Hamnet,” went deep with T Magazine about acting, pregnancy and dreams.
The Oscars have a unique method for choosing best picture, something like a ranked-choice ballot. Our reporter explains how it works in this video.

THE LATEST NEWS

In Israel near the border with Lebanon. Jalaa Marey/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The Middle East

Israel’s foreign minister denied reports that Israel and Lebanon were set to hold direct negotiations to end the fighting with Hezbollah.
The U.S. urged Americans to leave Iraq after a second attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad.
The Pentagon identified the six service members who died when a refueling aircraft crashed in Iraq on Thursday.
The F.C.C. chair threatened to revoke broadcast licenses over coverage of the war.
Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Gulf countries. In the video below, Vivian Nereim and Katrin Bennhold talk about how those strikes have affected migrant workers. Click to play.

The New York Times

Politics

Jared Kushner is trying to raise billions from Middle Eastern governments for his private equity firm, while also serving as a Trump administration envoy to the region.
Trump is proposing another major addition at the White House: a security screening facility for visitors.

Around the World

Gaza: A sandstorm battered the territory yesterday, slamming tents and other makeshift shelters with strong gusts. Much of the population remains without proper housing because of the war between Hamas and Israel.
The Netherlands: An explosion yesterday at a Jewish school in Amsterdam was the second antisemitic attack in the country in two days, officials said.

THE SUNDAY DEBATE

Indonesia, the world’s fourth-most populous country, recently joined a growing list of nations barring children under 16 from social media. Do these bans work?

Yes. They teach children boredom — how to be curious and understand the world. They’ll “experience what millennials long for: boredom, languid days without plans, the sweet simplicity of a logged-off life,” Jodi Wilson writes for The Guardian.

No. They’re not effective, and they require identity verification that could lead to mass surveillance. “This system not only allows big tech companies to harvest even more deeply personal data on children, but it creates massive cybersecurity risks,” Taylor Lorenz writes for The Guardian.

FROM OPINION

The apparent U.S. strike on an Iranian elementary school, and the Trump administration’s messaging, show America’s disregard for the rules that safeguard civilization, Nicholas Kristof writes.

Much of Lebanon wants Hezbollah disarmed, but an Israeli assault on Lebanese territory is not the solution, Nada Bakri writes.

Here are columns by Maureen Dowd on how “Love Story” is helping to revive the Kennedy myth and Thomas Friedman on civic activism in Minnesota.

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MORNING READS

The sky over the Southern Ocean on Feb. 13. Chang W. Lee/The New York Times

Stars align: A Times photographer took an eight-week voyage to Antarctica. He didn’t expect the reporting trip to connect him with his late father.

Trailgating: Fans of the Iditarod race line the streets of Anchorage and other stops, cheering on mushers and their dog teams in a seemingly unending party.

A philosopher: For over a half-century, Jürgen Habermas offered a staunch defense of Enlightenment ideals and promoted the notion of the “public sphere.” He died at 96.

SPORTS

Tennis: Daniil Medvedev beat Carlos Alcaraz to advance to the final of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, Calif. He will play Jannik Sinner today.

N.C.A.A.: In men’s basketball,