Washington, DC

1. Powell pessimistic on inflation
2. Tillis-Pirro standoff continues
3. Oil surges to $110
4. Gabbard hangs on
5. Rand stands against Mullin
6. Cesar Chavez abuse allegations

The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady dashed any hopes for a June cut, with odds ▼ to 9%.

Stocks fall on Powell pessimism

Stocks fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipping 1.6%, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave a bleak outlook on the economy at a press conference announcing interest rates would remain steady. “We had the tariff shock, we had the pandemic, and now we have an energy shock of some size and duration” amid war in Iran, Powell said at a news conference. “You worry that’s the kind of thing that can cause trouble for inflation expectations.” That uncertainty makes it even harder for the Fed to weigh a softening labor market against persistent inflation. On Wednesday the Labor Department released data showing prices businesses pay for goods are rising. Powell mentioned weak job numbers, too. “Effectively, there’s zero net job creation in the private sector.” Still, Fed policymakers left open the possibility of a rate cut later in the year.

Trump’s Fed chair pick stuck in ‘box canyon’

Powell also said that he plans to remain on the Fed until the Justice Department drops its investigation of recent renovations. Three GOP senators told Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller that the probe remains the biggest obstacle to replacing Powell after Jeanine Pirro said Friday she would appeal a federal judge’s ruling blocking subpoenas to the Fed. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., told Semafor he would continue his two-month blockade of Kevin Warsh’s nomination. The GOP’s one-vote majority on the Banking Committee means Tillis alone can stop Warsh’s nomination from advancing, but Sens. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., and John Kennedy, R-La., also said Pirro should stop fighting. Powell also said he would follow precedent by serving as chair pro tempore until his successor is confirmed.

Oil surges as energy assets enter crosshairs

Oil prices surged again today, reaching a high of $110 per barrel, after reports that both sides of the Iran war have put critical energy infrastructure in their crosshairs. Israel hit the South Pars gas field, the largest facility of its kind in the world, and explosions were reported at a nearby refinery complex. Iranian officials promised to retaliate, releasing a list of energy sites in neighboring countries. Iran has already struck oil and gas facilities and other civilian targets in neighboring states, primarily the UAE, where officials are calling on the US to continue the conflict until the regime has been incapacitated. The rising threat to energy infrastructure comes as the Trump administration shifts policy to stabilize oil prices and faces mounting pressure to end the conflict swiftly.

Gabbard’s standing intact amid mixed signals on Iran

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard ended the first of her two Hill appearances this week with the White House’s continued confidence, even as she offered a more nuanced explanation of one of its central rationales for war, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reports. Gabbard told the Senate Intelligence Committee that the Iranian regime “appears to be intact but largely degraded” weeks into the war. But Gabbard, a longtime critic of US foreign intervention, omitted from her verbal remarks — citing time restrictions — a portion of her written statement that asserted “Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was obliterated” by last year’s Iran-Israel war. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said Iran was weeks away from obtaining a nuclear weapon when he initiated military action last month, describing the threat as “imminent.” One of Gabbard’s top aides, Joe Kent, cited opposition to the war in his public resignation on Tuesday.

Mullin still on track for confirmation despite Paul’s opposition

Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Chair Rand Paul will oppose Markwayne Mullin’s nomination to lead the Department of Homeland Security. He also won’t stand in the way of it, Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Lauren Morganbesser report. Paul said Mullin is “unfit” and has “anger issues” that preclude his support, but the Kentucky Republican also told Semafor he’s “promised to at least get an expeditious vote” on advancing the pick. That could happen as soon as Thursday, though Mullin will need Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., to bail him out given Paul’s opposition. There’s no love lost between Paul and Mullin, who refused to apologize for past remarks about Paul getting violently assaulted. Paul even seemed to waver on the Thursday vote until Mullin agreed to discuss a secret 2015-2016 trip to an unknown overseas destination in a classified setting.

Cesar Chavez abuse allegations rock Democrats

The fallout from a New York Times investigation into credible accusations that Latino civil rights leader Cesar Chavez sexually abused girls and young women was swift. Within hours of its publication, Latino leaders, Democrats, and groups affiliated with Chavez’s legacy responded. Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs said Arizona, where Chavez was born, would not recognize the March 31st holiday in his honor while accusations are investigated. The United Farmworkers Union canceled celebrations as well. Democratic Women’s Caucus Chair Teresa Leger Fernández, D-N.M., Sen. Alex Padilla, D-Calif., Rep. Luz Rivas, D-Calif., and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus posted statements in support of abuse survivors.

Semafor today announced the agenda and a new slate of CEOs and global leaders joining more than 450 top executives at the 2026 Annual Convening of the Semafor World Economy, taking place April 13–17 in Washington, DC. As the definitive live journalism platform on the new economy, the convening will bring together US Cabinet secretaries, central bank governors, finance ministers, and Fortune 500 CEOs for five days of on-stage conversations and in-depth interviews uniting private and public sector leaders to exchange ideas that will shape the future of the world economy.

Iran

• China is quietly helping Iran by buying its oil and selling the regime rocket parts.
• Asia is relying more on coal as war in Iran limits liquefied natural gas exports.
• Israel is targeting Iranian regime members in their hideouts. — WSJ
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says more than 200 Ukrainian experts are in the Middle East to help fend off Iranian drones.

Politics

• Republicans and Democrats are aligned in opposing cuts to NIH funding. — Politico
• A federal judge pressed Trump administration lawyers on the legality of the president’s $400 million White House ballroom plan.

Shutdown

• A senior TSA official said that if the DHS shutdown continues, small airports might need to close.

World

• The State Department told all US diplomatic posts globally to “immediately” undertake security evaluations. — WaPo
• Pakistan said it would pause its airstrikes in Afghanistan for five days after outrage over civilian deaths.

Tech

• Anthropic now accounts for more than 73% of total spending by companies purchasing AI tools. — Axios

— Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., to Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., at Mullin’s confirmation hearing to be DHS secretary.

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant, Washington briefing editor

Graph Massara and Lauren Morganbesser, copy editors

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, Nicholas Wu, David Weigel